Posted At: November 29, 2007 @ 10:46 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
As a strong upper trough moves across the Rockies by Saturday, a deep surface low will intensify over the Central Plains before moving rapidly northeastward across the Great Lakes Region by Sunday. Given a strong anticyclone (~1030-1046 mb) in its wake, strong winds and a well-developed deformation zone to the northwest of the surface low track will result in blizzard conditions from NE, SD, Northwest IA, southern MN, and northern WI Saturday-Sunday. An intense lake effect event will then develop as the cold air behind the system filters across the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes by late in the weekend through early next week. Since this potentially major winter weather event is still a few days out, the forecast track of the surface low still could change significantly. Right now, it looks like the heaviest snow will fall over the above region, and the recent model runs have been relatively consistent with this forecast. Shown below is the 60 hr total precip valid next Monday morning, with the dark blue coloring representing > 0.50" liquid equivalent precip, and the purple representing > 1.50", equating to well over a foot of snowfall. Stay tuned for updates! If this system appears strong enough, we may be heading north to document the extreme winter conditions!
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This is awesome, been a seriously dry November here. Looking forward to getting a serious snowstorm. Have my
snowblower ready.
Click on my name to see what I use for snow removal. Just
received it last January.
If it plays out as it looks right now---I will have the camera rolling... I live right in the Twin Cities area near those darker colors. So far the local weather guys are saying 3 to 5 inches for the Twin Cities---but I imagine they are being conservative right now. Hopefully the low stays on track---we need some excitement around here. :)
tp me the favored lake-effect regions of westen new york and northwestner pa 2-3 feet of snow isn't out of the question
Damn that is a monster Jim!
Yeah if this model verifies Bo you'll get 3 times that amount!
I hope so Reed! We need a beast to come through town... My Subaru loves this stuff... While everyone else is digging out of the parking lot, I just put it in reverse and drive. If it's deep enough, my bumper ends up being a mini plow. haha.
Well Reed, I have lots of ground to cover with that little blower, I remove the snow from 2 parking lots and a 1/4 mile of driveway. Then its on to 1/2mile of sidewalk this year. City just added a new road with another 1200ft of sidewalk up the road behind the buildings.
it has become- recnetly issued winter storm watchs in minn. and then for parts of wisconsin- i just wish they were for arkasnas instead lol- but seriously- with 1/4- 1/2 inch of icing possible in wis. after the snow falls- that there should be at least consideration for an ice storm warning
Again us in Ohio get the green stuff instead of the white stuff. Maybe one day it will look like December here.
Oh yeah GO SOONERS
Looks like you guy's will have a fun time! I'll be seeing some not so bad snowfall here on Monday! I'll be sure to film in the morning when the heaviest amounts will be around. Picture's in the afternoon!
cant wait to see em kenny
Hey guys whats up today????
I got some video from i think it was Tuesday that Im working on right now. Its a not so bad snow storm. And on my way to work i got hit by a massive snowdevil sadly i dont have film of it.
This looks great here in Minneapolis. Im going to have to go home and get the snowmobiles ready!
wow for southern wisconsin we are suppose to get near 7 inches of snow saturday! then a half inch of ice?!?! wow that would be crazy
And to think, TWC called for 65 and sunny on Sunday... lol. I think I'm going to get a camera and outfit my vehicle with snow tires, just in case.
I think I'll just get the ice and slush mix though... not as much snow, like Monte in Hutchinson will get.
Ahh, I can picture it now... sliding through corners in my truck, listening to Trans Siberian Orchestra, getting yelled at for driving in a winter storm.... it's awesome. lol
Reed, head up I35, come up to Duluth MN this weekend. If the models remain in tact, this could be a big snowstorm for Duluth, i'd say at least 8 to 12 inches based on current projections. In addition, we should have some strong east winds coming right off Lake Superior, possibly gusting over 30 mph Saturday Afternoon-Sunday Morning, probably will have near white-out conditions at the peak of this storm. I hope nothing changes, if anything appears that the low tracks slightly more N/W with each new model run. and no it's not against the law to be saying GO PACK GO living here in Minny-lol!
GO PACK GO:D:D:D
haha. That, TimMN, is the only time I will sit down and watch TV, when there's an awesome game like this one playing. GO PACK GO.
Reed, you are stuck in a pickle: wait and see how this weekend's storm develops in the central US, or head north to Minny and check it out there... ;)
My family in Western MD will probably end up in that purple shading too, if the current projections verify. They're over 2,000 ft in elevation, and so extreme western MD (Garrett Co.) almost always ends up with significant snowfall with systems like this one. They get their foercasts out of the Pittsburgh NWS office, and they can usually count on their actual snow totals being several inches over what is being projected for their area. I am sure they will be thrilled by the prospect of 12+ inches ;) (Okay, really they won't!)
Well, I created a blog this time. My friend won't work on the site so I'll be using this now. I think it's good enough. Click my name above to see it.
Well folks!! I have me a nice lil 5 day vacation on my hands!! Would be perfect timing for a Snow storm outta hell!! Ya Reed come on up!! Like I've said before!! Anything ya need, just let me know!!
Brady!! Come check out my site^^^ Leave a comment! If you wanna help with anything, just post it! :)
Hey Brady wats up today????
Im currently uploading my snow video from tuesday and also working on the tornadovideos.net/Walmart car first run at the track. I made a new car.
P.S. it didnt go so well.
Also, if you want your website link on my blog, just say so, I'll update A.S.A.P
Yeah I wish I lived farther north to experience the exterem snow!! If anybody gets any pictures of the snow and/or Ice I would greatly appreciate it if you would send them to my E-mail at rza2@sbcglobal.net so I can put them on my photo album on my site^^ I would REALLY appreciate it!
I just heard in, A Winter Storm is possible for Edmonton, Alberta on Monday!! I knew I'd see something!! 6 cm's or more is possible, blowing snow and wind's of 40 km/h or more!! Guy's If schools canceled, I'll be sure, 100% to film this event.
Thats great Kenny!
If you want, you can send any pics or video to my E-mail:
rza2@sbcglobal.net
Here is my snow video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhmn9mNpcwk
Man!! You boys to the south need to save some gas $$ and come up here for a weekend in either mid February or late July!! And if ya wanna witness some major cold ,go see Kenny in about a month!!
This has to be one of the most seasonably normal months we've had in years!! NOAA was saying our temps, precip, snowfall totals were all just about normal for month to date!!
Yeah Brady!! TWN says were suppose to see an ABOVE normal precip snowfall winter this year!! I'm not surprised by the looks of it right now!! And yeah, come visit me if you want to experience -30c or -40 degrees temperatures!! around -10 to -20F temperatures is what we get here in late December and January!!
Hey Brady, remember a fews years back when Embarrass,MN reached the State record low of -60F.
I love MN in the winter, bring on the cold. I can always add
more clothes. Can`t say the same about the last few heat
waves. Can only take off so much clothes.
Brady, I might just take you up on your offer. The only thing holding me back is something called a J.O.B., and it can be tough to get time off. Oh well, sometime ;)
Good video Matt, I hope we get snow like that this weekend! lol. According to TWC and NOAA, it should remain ice overnight, and turn into a slushy mess... yuck.
I just checked the WRF & GFS. Does anyone here think this looks like an ice storm setup for the upper Ohio Valley? (I'm thinkind specifically of the Pittsburgh area South to maybe Cincinnati?) I'm not afraid to say that I'm not very practiced on reading the temp maps at the various mb levels, so I thought I'd ask to see what anyone else who is more experienced thinks. The 18Z & 0Z runs especially piqued my interest.
@Kenny - I checked your new blog a while ago & tried to leave a message on the comments but I can only do that if I'm a member. You might be able to adjust it?? Anyway, I wanted to say it looked pretty slick. :)
Yes I do Jim!! We've had some nasty cold spurts in the past few years that's for sure!!
Yeah AJ!! Jobs can get in the way of a lotta fun!! hehe
Oh crap, forgot to change that. Sorry Heidi, I'll do it right now.
Matt, I wish I was getting snow footage like that here this weekend! :'-(
:D
Heidi, I'll make it up to you, and try to get some extreme freezing slush pictures! lol.
Alright, try now Heidi! Anyone else leave a comment if you can! :) click my name. I'm also going to put up the map I made in a sec.
Hey Kenny! Uhhh the blog isn't working
Kenny, nice job! I'd leave a comment if it wasn't so darned difficult to get past the security... lol
Oh...I have no idea why it wont let you guy's post then..Let me try to figure it out..Keep trying to post every 5 minutes.
Ok, Now it should work..I just forgot to enable one thing.
Kenny it still won't work lol....
Says I have to be a member....Darn:(
Yeah, same here.... oh well, I'll post when you get it fixed. I gotta go, see ya later!
AJ I really don't thing you or I will get snow. It really looks more like rain for us. Sure would be nice to be more north though like up in Minnesota :)
Look at all the cold air that this storm is going to have to work with. I mean as of 9:00 p.m local time Thompson Manitoba is -38 air temp. OUCH
That would be a new overnight low already
!!!!
Thompson Manitoba is -38c / -36f right now.
Brutal.
Bring it on, I am more then ready for winters return. Bought a HD 720P Camcorder last week and will take some video with it when I out blowing snow on Saturday. We had close to an inch already tonight, went out with my leaf blower to
clean off the sidewalks.
Mike was able to post. Try it now! If it doesn't work, I have no idea what's wrong with it. You'll probably have to sign up..
Now that Winter seems to be inching nearer to us, I think I am going to have My Mom start coming on here on Thursdays to ask Reed's advice as to whether it's safe for her to plan to drive "down the mountain" to get her hair done on Friday morning for her weekly appointment. I thought this might liven things up a bit. She's 70. :D She gets concerned about driving in the wintry weather, and if she is to miss her Friday hair appointment it could severely disrupt her next several days - She needs to know *IN ADVANCE* when she should reschedule. So I will make it my campaign for Reed to be My Mom's official weekly hair-appointment weather consultant. I'm sure he could never have dreamed that this day would come! Do you people SEE the BENEFITS of being a Meteorologist?!?! It's FANTASTIC!!!!! :D
I think that's an excellent idea Heidi. It would be great to get another perspective :)
hello everyone..time to check the 00z model runs, see if there's any changes on the upcoming weekend storm for MN
Let us bow our heads and pray!! hehe
lol hey brady..i hear ya.. keep the track of the storm up this way, we deserve one
Honestly I don't know squat about model reading!! hehe I understand the basics, and I'm learning more day by day!! Thank you for the help everyone!! =( but putting it all together to make a forecast is still over my head!! I still can't get over how much I've learned in the past months of posting here though!!
Tim!! I watched the game!! Tough one!!!
nothing has changed from what i can see...still looks like a significant snow/wind event for Duluth MN Saturday Afternoon thru Sunday Morning.. Also, beginning to see signs of a clipper low possibly for next Tuesday for MN. a snowy pattern could be developing around here
about the game, Dallas was the better team TONIGHT, Favre got hurt, but it was nice to see Rodgers step in and make it somewhat of a game, maybe there's life after Favre retires? hmm, i'm hoping he doesn't retire quite yet though, but the injury is to his throwing arm, not a good sign.. 10-2 right now are the Packers, still in a good spot, but it's gonna be tough the rest of the way
Brady, when-ever a storm comes up this way, i study the models, bascially i'll write everything down on paper, then go thru what each model shows on previous runs, u can sorta see if the models trend north or south on different model runs.. same goes for forecasting thunderstorms/severe weather for the Spring/Summer
From what a dummy like me can see from the gfs is a s#!t load of precip around here in roughly 48hr from the model run!! I guess it doesn't take a brainiac to see that!! hehe
OK I'm sorry, I have to get this out of my system.
AAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
LOOOOOOOOOSSSSEEEEEEEEEEERRRSSSSS!!!!!!!
37-27 BOYS BABY!!!!!!!
11-1 AND (probably) HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE ALL THE WAY TO THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you.
Now for a slightly calmer opinion...
I honestly believe the Packers would have lost even worse WITH Farve. It's not because I dont like him, in fact, he's probably my favorite NFL player.
BUT. I don't think he could have handled the pressure, given the Cowboys OUTSTANDING defense early, plus his 0-8 (now 0-9) history at Texas Stadium.
The Cowboys played better TONIGHT, and they would have done so on any other night. They are the better team, and finally were able to prove it.
For all you Packers fans out there... my rant is done, and I am sorry for your loss.
losers.
lol brady..ur right about all the precip the NAM/GFS are spitting out up here, were talking liquid amounts of 0.75" to nearly 1.00", that could fluff up to around 8-12 inches of snow by Sunday here in Duluth MN. Yes Connor Packers are now 0-9 at Dallas, but Dallas is 0-5 at Green Bay, granted Dallas prolly has home field wrapped up now for the upcoming playoffs, so i doubt Dallas will have to travel up to Green Bay. Dallas is the better team, but not by much, hopefully both teams get to face each other in January, will see.. Favre is awesome!, but he has his games where he's a bonehead, usually when they play Minnesota and Detroit and Dallas, but he's still great!
I didn't know that Dallas was 0-5 in Green Bay. But like you said, that shouldn't matter after tonight. It was a good game though... I lost my voice from all the screaming I did with my friends at the TV!
Also, did anyone see the Boston/New York (basketball) game? Boston won 104-59. I didn't know that was possible!
Enough sports now... when is Texas gonna get its next ice storm?? I've been waiting since January, and even though I know its early, I'm already impateint! Since its not unusual for us to go an entire year without anything frozen, I get excited at every little chance.
lol yea it was definately an up and down game that's for sure, but it was good, i thought Dallas was gonna lay 50 plus on the Pack, i'm surprised they sorta made a game out of it in the 2nd half.. Well, not sure what part of TX ur in, but if it's a La Nina winter, i don't think TX will see much of a Winter, storm track should be farther north, but i could be wrong??
The only loser here is me!! Hunter and now... like Heidi called it, Santana!! I'm gonna be listening to the Brewers next year!! so I guess!! I should just become a cheesehead like Tim!! JK hehe
I get ya Tim!! When I have any questions I'll just quit being shy and ask em here!! good way for others to learn too!!
Like this!! What is the difference between RUC, GFS, ... ect models?? I've noticed that RUC only goes up to 12hr but otherwise????????????
wow, it's really snowing here in West Duluth right now, spose i should check the radar, i know an arctic front is plunging thru, man there's some scary cold sittting up north right now
ruc or rapid update cycle, i think? more of a short term model, pretty decent one to look at, i think at least..
just a few miles away Tim and nothing here!! It was snowing for about 5 minutes about a half hour ago at Holiday on 53 and now nothing! just goes to show how this town is!! And why I love it here!!
ya i got up for a second, went into the kitchen, looked outside and it was almost a white-out, but i see that it stopped now..wow!
I swear only in Duluth it could be a white out one minute and completely clear and stars the next!! I am looking at the moon right now!! it comes and goes!! hehe
I'm just north of Dallas. we usually get about a week total of temperatures in the 30s with one day in the 20s, and we just have to hope it storms on that day. Luckily down here they have been known to cancel school just because snow was in the forecast. that has actually happened in the last two years!
I meant "twice in the past two years"
wow! look at the water vapor satellite imagery and the storm off of the Baja and the trof digging down the West Coast..look at all that juicy moisture flowing north.. boy this system has potential
yea it's crazy down South when snow or ice is in the forecast, but it's not too common down in that area.. Up here, sometimes schools are open when there's still a foot of snow, but then again were more use to the wintry weather this far north
Yeah Tim!! Can you believe that!! What Connor said!! He was saying they canceled school once cuz it was what... 22f and snow was in the forecast which didn't even happen!!
I went to Central =( I had to walk up that hill every day!! -22f, a fresh 8" and no chance in hell school being called off!! At least I could ride on my math book back down the hill!! hehe
it really isn't the snow that gets school called off here!! it the Major cold!! -30 below at 6am is not uncommon here!!
lol that's crazy that they do that down there, but i guess i'm not too shocked by that. ya the cold is a bigger deal up in this area more than the snow.. at least the text books came in handy for somethings..lol
Hehe!! These days I just wished I opened it and actually read it!! JK I did fair in math!!
When everyone's bitching about the heat and humidity around here ( which I hate very much cuz it's so short lived) I guess the southern boys kick our ass in dealing with that!! hehe
I'm sure it must sound like I'm exaggerating with this, but i'm really not. its mainly because the few times it actually DOES happen things get crazy. plus we get ice a lot more than we get snow, so that only adds to the trouble
ice sucks, it's awesome but it sucks, you can't drive on ice..i'd rather go thru a foot of snow then ice.. I remember here in Duluth, MN we had an ice storm back in March, sometime back in the 90s..it was so bad it took down a huge television antenna up on observation road. Was w/o power in West End for over a day
The most damaging storms I've seen were ice storms!! I bet you guys see quite a bit of that crap!!
The ice storm we had a few years back scared the s#!t outta me!! Ya must remember that one Tim!! It was like hell here!! I had trees just missing my truck!! I know I told that story before!!
I was living in Windwood ghetto apartments when that tower crashed!! my mom remembers it more than I do!! not the same storm as I was refering but that one was worse!! March sucks bad here!!
Would that have been the ice storm in December a few years ago? I remember it being pretty bad, but the temp climbed up to between 35-40 later that day, so all the ice started to melt
yeah! I think it was December!! I wanna say 00 or 01!!
I was living in the tornado bait ( trailer park) behind lakes10 in Hermantown!! I was in my bedroom playing ps2 then a bright flash lighted up on the corner of my sardine can, then the power went out!! I stepped out and seen the powerline was laying btween my truck and my house!! which were about 12ft apart! so after risking jumping the wire I drove towards Piedmont Heights to my grandparents cuz we no longer had heat! It took my buddy and I almost 2 hours to make the drive (3.5mi) We got cut off everywhere by fallen trees!! We came up to Willmans on Anderson rd and there was a line swaying about a foot or so across the street! I was a lil iffy on driving over it, just then A big ol pine full of ice crashed down inches behind my truck!! I freaked out and drove over that line as fast as I could!! ( no prob) It was like out of a movie!! I remeber seeing all this lightning and then realizing it was transformers and lines arching out everywhere!! Prett green lightning!!
We are under one hell of a long winter storm watch!! right through Sunday evening!! That's like longer than a hurricane watch!! Holy $#!t this better dump on all of us!!
Nice Timing! We are also gonna get hit this weekend, im expecting hurricane force winds but we'll see what happens..stay tuned!!!
Hi everybody,
no serious snow here, but I expect the first interesting storm event for this year and my area (in Western Germany) on Sunday. Some maps:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6012.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs609.gif (look at the isobares)
(GFS)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme604.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme664.gif
(GME) which shows even stronger wind speeds
Central pressure: 970 hPa (GME)
The German Weather Service expects gusts of 9 Beaufort in the lowlands till 11 Beaufort at the higher sites (low mountain ranges). Not really hurricane force but strong storm.
Let's see which model takes the point.
@Cors: Everything allright? I hope so. Greets :-)
i doubt will have accumulating snowfall here in Duluth, MN right through Sunday Evening from what i've seen with the forecast models. Probably have snow from Saturday Afternoon thru Sunday Morning the way it looks now, unless the system slows down a bit more...If that happened, then yea we'd have measurable snow into Sunday Afternoon...Either or, still looks like a nice winter storm for us!
Ok, this is crazy.....
Thompson Manitoba is now -41. C and F are the same thing at that temp.
You guys with your winter storm watches are being way to boisterous with your enthusiasm. In fact, I think it's high time for all you Minnesota people and CORS to just calm yerselves down mightily. This is NO PLACE to be expressing excitement over the weather. I want to see reserved, thoughtful discussion, perhaps while you're also sipping on warm tea with milk. The latter should be carefully poured into small teacups, forcing you to appear dainty as you grasp the teacup's delicate handle using only your thumb and forefinger, and lift it to your mouth to take the small sips, as you reflect on the current atmospheric situation.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA SNOW STORM AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!
Heidi, do armadillos hibernate when it snows?
Hi everyone! no real snow here but tomorrow it will be cold! -12°C and it'll be like -22°C with the wind and humidity... BRRRR! I hope we will recieve significant snow fall soon! I went to the region of Quebec last weekend and they have approximately 12 inches of snow on the ground. Lucky ones!
Sort of... they go into their burrows and stay there when it gets very cold, but I'm not sure it's really classified as hibernation. Stupid armadillos ...
Heidi, I'm surprised that you were able to type so many words before the stupid part came out. Is this progress I'm seeing? Could it be that your phobia is cured?
I remember the ice storm we had a few years ago in ohio, it was pretty but everything was creaking and making crazy noises. Tons of tress fell and we were without power for 3 or 4 days, I would take a foot of snow anyday over .5 or so of ice.
Armadillos are cool except they tear the crap out of yards.
GO SOONERS
lol @ Heidi, good stuff! Besides some arctic chill up here in Minny the last week or so, the weather has been fairly tame up in this area, so were due for a big winter storm, and it continues to look like were gonna see one this weekend. Still think we have a shot at seeing a foot of snow by Sunday up here in Duluth, throw in some gusty winds off Lake Superior, and you have all the ingredients for a fun, exciting weekend
I better get the sled ready!! hehe I hope we don't get screwed outta this one!!
I think you're on to something, Strike. It definitely seems like a good sign that it did not even occur to me to say "stupid armadillos" until the end! And it ain't no phobia - it's all-out WARFARE!!! And gerb, how on earth would an Ohio fellow know of this scourge. Please tell me they have not spread that far north yet! =-O
I just got an email from My Mom - she says their forecast is for freezing rain Saturday night & Sunday (western MD). I told her that she needs to get herself over to TV.net to weigh in. :D Reed, if y'all want to head up there to document, she bakes lots and lots of cookies. I think she's a cookie-baking addict, actually. She should join a support group.
Anyone want to guess the amount of coffee I'm opperating on here?
yea this weekend in myarea there sayin a mix which sucks i want alot of snow but im goin to my dads house sking so when the storm is going im going to be driving down in it so i can how bad it was here and stuff and i live in nj and ny so i will basically driving up the whole state of ny till i get close to vermont where my dad is