News DetailHP supercells/brief tornadoes possible along Gulf Coast today
Posted At: November 25, 2007 @ 10:48 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
As a surface low pressure center slowly intensifies along the Louisiana Gulf Coast this afternoon, a warm front will drift northward from the Gulf of Mexico, providing surface based instability for the already-established band of convection moving eastward across the Central Gulf Coast. Any storms that can root along the warm front today will have a chance to produce brief tornadoes given the backed winds and enhanced helicities along the boundary. The SPC has issued an MD for the area, as shown below:
The RUC cape analysis shows the position of the warm front well as of 1900 UTC, with 2000+ J/kg values in the warm sector over the Gulf of Mexico. Any cells that can become surface based along or to the south of the warm front will quickly become supercells, and may even produce tornadoes as the cross the front. Any supercells that do form will likely be of the HP variety, given the embedded nature of the storms, and thus any tornadoes will likely be rain-wrapped.
The RUC cape analysis shows the position of the warm front well as of 1900 UTC, with 2000+ J/kg values in the warm sector over the Gulf of Mexico. Any cells that can become surface based along or to the south of the warm front will quickly become supercells, and may even produce tornadoes as the cross the front. Any supercells that do form will likely be of the HP variety, given the embedded nature of the storms, and thus any tornadoes will likely be rain-wrapped.
As seen in the 850 mb analysis below, the low-level jet is marginal for tornadoes, with the strongest LLJ remaining over Texas to the west of the MCS. However, the easterly flow along the warm front will increase the low-level helicities enough to produce brief tornadoes if surface-based storms can cross the warm front. Stay tuned for updates!
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Yikes..I'm sure going to be watching that on GR3.
Reed, Think about coming up to Alberta on Tuesday, not this coming one, a week after this coming one! Dec 3-4 look good for snowstorms, and models show another wave heading for the praries thats pretty strong!
I hope we can get more snow soon!! Mostly grass showing now! My lawn is still greener than it was all summer!! hehe
Hey Tim MN!! I have the boat if we ever need to chase in the middle of the lake!! Ask Reed what he wants to do with a boat (WIV)!! Hehe He has some great ideas!! If ya drive up Stebner past Deerfield you'll see my ship sitting there, can't miss it!!
Starting to cool down in alberta, around -24c by wednesday
34f, 1.1c here in Duluth!! Way too warm for my liking!
Cool! I'd like to see how this plays out. Brady, if you're gonna get out the WIV, make sure you have plenty of survival gear, i.e., beer, etc... ;) lol.
Yay!!! Snow heading for me!! and it's strengthening and weakening and strengthening!! I hope it hits me strong so I can ATLEAST see something on the ground.
Always AJ!! Always!! I just put a new mini fridge in it last year,So my beer is always cold!! I want to put an air conditioner in it next year!! There is nothing worse than waking up with a hell of a hangover and looking at the temp and seeing 98f
Better get some chains on the bike tires Kenny... we'd hate to see the world-famous Bike Chaser get stuck ;) lol
It looks like winter is here to stay in Winnipeg. I think there is enough snow on the ground to reflect any heat that might bring us melting.
Yay everyone, its officially car accident season.
gotta love hp supercells- i kinda thought they looked like the hp variety- i think the best one of these storms would be storm cell G3
Donny, you have just peaked my interest. lol. *Pulls up GR3 to look and see...*
lol my bad aj i guess we both know what to look for in a good quality HP supercell then- you know- you gotta realize how dangerous hp supercells are- i mean you know- it makes you wonder whats more dangerous- an e-2 tornado - or a rain-wrapped e-f1 tornado
I'm going to film here soon, it's closing in and should be here within 20 minutes at most. Even if it's a few flakes, I'll still waste my bateries on it!
Go for it anyway Kenny! It's the thrill of the chase! lol. Donny, the rain-wrapped EF-1 takes the cake for most dangerous, because one needs to see the tornado to be able to report on it... if you can't see it, you've lost your advantage. That's when you back off of it, so you don't get caught in the middle of something.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
http://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff207/ontariostormchaser/14daytrend-1.jpg
I hope this forecast is right because i am one excited person after i saw that.
Oh and hey guys whats up this afternoon?
Wow matt thats alot of snow lol, where you form
?
i know that was my point aj ohh sorry i forgot to mentio that was supposed to be rhetorical lol
lol. All's well Donny; sometimes it's hard for me to tell the difference, but I'm learning ;)
Holy crap Matt. lol. That's insane. It's going good here, just too darn cold in my garage for me to work on my project truck.
Mike im from Southern Ontario.
Anyways guys im going to shower im going to my grandparents for are Grey Cup party.
Anyways guys im going to shower im going to my grandparents for are Grey Cup party.
OOOpps double post
Matt, That won't happen haha..If your lucky you'll see 3 days of snow maybe. The 14 day trend always changes..
I know Kenny. Ill post tomorrows 14 day trend to see how much it changes
Hey guys whats going on?
cool, tornas even now lol.
well a 6 degrees c here and getting colder ....
Hey Tim its good right now. I just woke up like 1 hour ago
its currently 2C right now
I think there are two things in the weather world that are just cruel. ... First, we have the high pressure dome in the summer, which cause all the big storms to be off to your west and north as you bake in 100 degree heat. Second would have to be 34-35 degree rain. It ain't right, I say! :'-(
... I did see a couple of tiny flakes mixed in a few times, though. But that is nowhere close to making up for it!
even i saw some in jacksonville heidi i have said this once i will say it again- the weather is always interesting unless there are no t-storms
cool Matt, 2 c where you are at mid day and its twenty to 8 here and its 6 c......
Ah not good then Heidi i guess, really anoying i would say!
Hey the weather here is wierd to Heidi. One day its 40C and the next day its like 2C its kinda bad. One year my birthday party had to come inside because the temperature was -1C. My birthday is July 30th.
-1C on July 30th? alskaskdjgf!! lol. Now that's crazy. I was going to give my example of crazy weather, but Matt's example blows mine away. lol.
Thats Canada for ya AJ. Right now in the town of Yellowknife its -16F. Thats cold
I'ts 36F here in Garden City. That's about normal for us this time of year. What's not normal is all of last week, with highs in the 60s and 70s. That was awesome, but it sure spoiled us for warm weather. lol.
It's the same here AJ!! from what I see it looks as if this will be as warm as it's gonna get for a while!!
Hey AJ and Brady..... i could do with some of those temps...we are too cold for any decent storms to build but is too warm for snow :(
Ouch for yellowknife http://www.meteo.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-24_metric_e.html
Windchill of -38 in for simpson right now....not bad
Well guys im out for the day and i have some rain headed my way right now its in western ohio moving northeast. Anyways peace out guys.
sorry for all the posts but -46 windchill in some place in nunavit
See ya Matt! I spy some weak shear with those storms in LA... I think our supercells are starting to kick in Donny :)
We got some pretty good flurries here for a little while! I filmed it..but my bateries kept dieing..Tuesday looks really good for me, Edmonton, AB. Heres the model.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/prog48hr.gif
I thing there will be waterspouts too
probably caleb but since these supercells are HP's they'll likely be rain-wrapped
The tornado episode for desperate housewives is not going to be on until Dec 2...
There are more important things going on right now anyway!
Nice looking cell in MS right now...
hahahahaha. Oops! Oh well ;) Yeah, I like cell A6 furthre south. It's got a meso signature on it, and outbound and inbound flow is rather good.
Snowww haha. I needed to bring it back with me here to Regina. Off for a bit guys, kick-off in 15 minutes, got my hat, tshirt, and sweater ;). LET'S GO RIDERS!!! :D
let me guess reed your looking at the cell in simpson county
Hey guys!
wow just looking on gr3, A6 definnetly looks interesting at the moment.
sure does tim- however the posh is only 40 percent and iots mioving kinda slowish- however looking at vads theres still nice shear going on
Yeah, regardless of how fast it's going, there's still good rotation in it.
no doubt aj- it has a classic hp look to it even
VIL has moved up a few points, but is it shearing itself apart now, or still going strong?
the couplet looks even stronger to me
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/louisianacouplet.jpg heres the couplet
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
509 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
* UNTIL 600 PM CST
* AT 504 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EMPIRE...
OR ABOUT 29 MILES SOUTH OF PORT SULPHUR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BURAS BY 535 PM CST...
BOOTHVILLE...BOOTHVILLE ASOS AND VENICE BY 540 PM CST...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Doah! Now I see it. lol. My bad. It looks pretty strong still. Cell T3 grew by leaps and bounds while I wasn't looking too...
lol no worries aj im pretty sure that ones going to produce some wet microburts
A6 is still hanging in there, and T3 is developing nicely. Oh, choices, choices... :P lol.
lol ya Brady i think i saw a pic of ur boat in one of ur albums u have up on myspace, looks very nice! hmmm, boat chasing for spouts-that could be interesting..lol.. Talk about cold up north Today. 5 PM temps range from 8 below at Trout Lake Ontario to 8 below at Thompson Manitoba and 13 below up at Gillam Manitoba.. BRRR!! That cold shot coming toward us Tuesday looks pretty brutal right now, but looks to be a quick hitter..
so many storms to watch on radar so little time eh aj lol i like the way t3 i sbowing out- beautifull
Ohh yeah... I think I'll watch that one too, because it's got a chance at something. The meso on A6 disappeared again...
I spy... with my little eye... a couplet. Cool. :D
yea and it looks as if the center of T-3 turning more supercellular
Certainly an interesting weather pattern there in the Gulf. Hope some of you are going to drive down there and intercept some storms perhaps?
Kenny - changes made mate.
Mike
Darwin
zI really didn't see a potential for a watch and still don't. Never impressed me.
im keeping my eye in T3 lol ms to be going nicly with i think, a hook developing on it but im not sure....
sure is a gook developing in it tim- i guess we'll just have to see what happens with it
Hah... I would if I could Mike, but I live too far away. I would've had to have been there yesterday, watching the forecasts too. Oh well...
Is it me, or are these storms all wanting to go supercellular? A6, T3, and now K9 are all going nuts. lol.
hp supercell to the left hp supercell to the right- hp supercell to the south hp supercell to the left hp supercell to the west hp supercell to the left hp supercell to the right- hp supercell to the south hp supercell to the left hp supercell to the west ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
lol
Heres a picture of lightning I took from one of my videos from an LP Supercell that past through here. Best one, the rest were mostly flashes. http://img57.imageshack.us/img57/6986/lightning01zgz7.png
Time to watch MS on GR3! :D
nice shot kenny
Good shot Kenny! I like it. Donny, I think I should've taken a flight to New Orleans yesterday... lol. A6 is still going strong somehow, and what used to be T3 is hanging in there.
Good evening everybody!
This is just absolutly impressive:
http://www.myvideo.de/watch/733760
A real waterspout armada !
Anybody heard anything from Cors?
yeah good luck with that if you wanted to take pictures- you'll prolly only get rain shafts lol
haha. Yeah, I'd be screwed for decent pics, but I would be able to actually see what I'm looking at on radar. T3 and A6, still looking sharp!
Nice video Volker!! 5 spouts at once!
Awesome Volker!
T3 is still going... gosh.... it's higher-based now than it used to be... and moving directly into the warned area, no kidding.
well regretably the warning has expired
Awww, dangit. That cell is still showing up pretty well though, correct?
i spoke to soon- a new one is up lol but yeah its still lookign pretty onr adar
Ace video Volkernd great shot Kenny!!
What was T3 is now right the middle oof the warned zone!!
Ah hah... it does look good still. I'm sort-of surprised at T3, because it has died and come back to life a few times already. Oh well, it's the general nature of such storms... it's got good everything.
Actually, it's now O9 fellas... and headed slowly into the center of the warning box... someone called it right.
AJ, the meso O9 but look at the storm track right next to it in the warned area, that is still T3 lol!! and it still looks good.... ( yawn ) getting tierd now lol
haha. Good spotting there Tim ;) T3 could still act up again... and I bet it will sooner than later...
lol AJ yeh definnetly....
wow look at the shift in track from O9 now, impressive it was heading t now its going west!!
anyway guys im off for the night, I know AJ i said i would stay up till 1 lol but too tierd and with school in the morning i gotta get some sleep.
hope this all goes well for you guys, see ya!!
haha. See ya Tim, go get some sleep. We'll keep an eye on it.
What happened to T3? It disappeared. Now the circulation is on W2. lol. Good thing I'm not getting paid to keep track of all these cells ;)
Hmm... the warning is gone now... but there's still some circulation showing up... hmm.... lol.
it's easier then what you thank aj- basically just because it lost the original tracking code doesn't mean its still not the same kind of storm- so what if has a new tracking code- whenever the storm loses streghth it loses the tracking code- and when it strenghthens it gets a new tracking code- point being its still the same cell
hey wats been goin down haven't came on in like a week wat have i'v missed
haha. Thanks Donny. I was being slightly rhetorical, but I didn't know that bit of info. lol. Another meso is showing on A6 again... what dost thou thinketh? lol
What happened to the desperate housewives post?
Ahhh dec 2nd i see
where these storms talkin about?
ohhh my bad sorry lol but glad i can help out- and though thankest it's still going strong
lol. OK, just checking... we're looking at New Orleans radar. There's cells all over the place that have been rotating... take your pick. lol.
ok then i will look at it
looks like a pile of nothing of just rain
yes i'll take storm cell id A6 for 400 dollers mr trebeck
Switch to the Mobile, AL radar now. There's a point of interest way south of Gulfport.
Or not... lol. I second that motion Donny.
lol aj- all in favor say I lol
I...... lol. I think that if A6 does anything more, it'll be closer to Gulfport than people want it to get... :(
well even though these cells are still strong- occasionally severe that at least the dorught stricken areas will pick up some beneficial rains
Oh no kidding. It's not enough to cure them of any drought, but it sure is helping I bet.
Doah! It's now M6, and it's creeping closer to Gulfport, and looking spiffy. lol.
well my radar just blank-screened for a sec so no updates from me for a few minutes thanks for the update though
ok its back up - and looks m6 jsut piddled out lol
what a great video volker...thanks for sharing. the hose at 1:10 totally looks supercellular with the obvious rfd cut and ffd. i wish i was there to see that in person...wow!
Aww dangit... no more significant circulation :( It can't be over yet can it? lol.
i like g1 for development
Can't find any reason why I shouldn't like that one Donny. Anyone in favor say "I". lol.
B6 is still going... and going... and going... haha.
i actually see 2 areas of rotation that need to be watched- one is 18 miles south of biloxi and one is 52 miles southwest of pascagoula
I see the one SW of Pascagoula... but the one south of Biloxi is proving harder to find...
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/doublerotations.jpg there it is i have marked the 2 rotations
Nevermind...
haha. Thanks Donny, but I found them right after you posted that.
nevermind with what ?
lol. We need to get quicker typing skills. lol. Or at least I do...
lol ahhh well crap my radar is blacking out again no updates for a few
I gotcha Donny... same places you mentioned earlier are still showing good signs of circulation. It's still moving awfully slow too...
well at least my radar is back online and looks like the southern most rotation cneter is getting stronger in a way
Boy do I ever find weird stuff in Radar's and Satellite Imagery..Lately, I think the Weather's goofing off..http://img48.imageshack.us/img48/240/radarbirdtotornadoextrevp4.jpg
I see that.... Kenny, I think the radar is just screwing with you on that one. lol. Neat.
I gotta go gents, I'll try to check in later. Peace!
Hey guys!! What's up tonite?? I just realized it's after turkey day so now I can start playing Christmas songs!! hehe I gots a good one on the myspace page!! I can't believe how warm it was today!! almost 40f here!! Looks like low teens on Tuesday!! Brrrrrr
ohh yeah very warm kinda toasty there brady lol
AND SASKATCHEWAN TAKES HOME THE GREY CUP!!!! WOOOO lol..I don't even live in either provinces but..I just wanted to see Winnipeg lose!! And they did!! Yeah!! Saskatchewan's 3rd Grey cup!1
1 cm of snow so far!! I'm forecasting about 3 atleast will fall today!
Hey guys! How's our situation in the Gulf? I want some more snow... I'll get another week off... lol.
its more linear rather then supercellular allthough h-2 still has supercellular characteristics
Neat. Were there any warnings issued after I left, or has it stayed quiet since?
not that i know most of the stronger activity has remained offshore
woot woot tvs H-2 and m-8 is lookin healthier
Oh okay, cool. I guess there will be a full report tomorrow. I see the remaining circulation... think it'll stick around for a bit longer?
Nevermind the question about circulation. lol.
i see no reason why it shouldn't as ruc shows 0-1 helcity values 350-400 m^2 s^2 for the net 3 hours
Dang. lol. Too bad I don't have 3 hours to spend watching it, I have some last-minute homework to do in a bit.
lol no worries aj if i see any images worth saving you'll see em
haha. Okay, cool. For now, I'll sit back and enjoy the radar images. lol.
lol roger that all in favor of watching the radar say i lol
I
I lol
Okay, time to get some work done. See ya later!
roger that aj have a good evenin
WHOOOO our Saskatchewan Roughriders GREY CUP CHAMPS!! I've already heard people screaming outside "Let's go Riders!!" haha. I LOVE IT!!!
Guysss it's gonna be a high of -17 C!!! :D
Well today ended up to be total $#!7. I got like one little snow flake. i'm still sittin at 35 degrees, and it doesnt look like we'll have snow in the forecast for a long @$$ time :(
(I am proud of my ability to semi-censor words though)
I know how ya feel Connor..We got that here yesterday, but right now we have 2 cms thats fallen so far! would get pictures but my bateries are dead.
I think the drive home from work Tuesday Morning could be quite interesting up here in Duluth, i can't wait, nothing like doing some slipping and sliding and watching all the crazy drivers going 85 mph in the snow...ha! Brady, there's some scary cold lurking up in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario Provinces right now, temps in the single digits and teens below zero, wind chills down into the 20s and 30s below!!!! I think Tuesday is going to be downright FRIGID here in town! BRRR
Congratulations Skgirl. At least we kept it close.