News DetailMajor cold outbreak expected this week!
Posted At: November 19, 2007 @ 12:28 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
Loop of GFS forecast surface temperatures through Thanksgiving.
The first significant cold-snap of the winter season is expected to invade the entire U.S. this week, just in time for Thanksgiving and major holiday traveling. Previous model runs have also been hinting at a major snowstorm for the central U.S., but this morning's model runs have backed off that solution, but are still indicating the potential for a Nor'easter impacting New England by late week. The GFS forecast MSLP for the evening of Thanksgiving shows the massive Arctic air mass in place, with the developing cyclone in the Canadian Maritimes. Shortly after this time period, this low is expected to "bomb out" just off the coast of Newfoundland, bringing heavy snow and strong winds to Canada and possibly New England. I'm still holding out hope of a snowstorm for here in the central U.S. with the strong baroclinic zone draped from the Great Lakes southwest to the Southern Plains by Midweek -- hopefully we can get a low pressure system to develop along the temperature gradient and move northeast towards the Ohio Valley before the energy is transferred to the East Coast system. If this scenario occurs, then I'll be at ground zero here in Michigan! Stay tuned for updates.
Great.....just in time for a 500 mile drive from Va to MI! Just hope it snows too!
You should be ok Kim if this model verifies!! Where in MI are you heading? I'm in the lake effect snow zone on the west side of the state, but the snow bands will be south of us in the northwesterly pattern that will prevail behind this front. have a safe trip.
Nice loop!
bring on the cold- bring on the precipitation im ready for it
Reed, that first graphic is out of control. There ought to be a warning on it, in case any, um, "Children of the 60s" happen onto the site! ;)
Seriously, I have "Incense and Peppermint" stuck in my head now.
=-O
Ha you didn't show the next few days in the loop.
240hr GFS showing a huge cold push after this and a big event for AR/MS etc etc.
Manitoba is going to get frozen stiff.
Is this Bills Matheson's "most dreaded of all meteorological phenomena... The Siberian High"?
i know i saw it on the 6z run to pb- im waiting for the 12z run right now- but i wouldn't get to excited since its 240 hours out- thats still 10 days out and models can go back and for but still definantly something to watch out for
You're right pat!! I should have included the next several days.
If that continues I may even miss an Oklahoma snowstorm...that always seems to happen when I make the trip to MI. they get pounded. One time I reserved a flight to MI in December...and then a tornado outbreak materialized the day after I arrived in MI in Arkansas...so I rented a car as soon as I landed in MI from OK, and drove all night down to AR...chased the severe weather event, and then drove all the way back to Michigan to celebrate Christmas...and caught my flight back to OK. Didn't see any tornadoes by the way
It's still cold here. Got freezing rain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnylQRy6oio
- this is absolutly insane, never saw sth. like this, insane.
Hoo weee that's what I'd call commitment to chasing Reed.
~1000 mile trip one way?
Fantastic! I say go for it if you can while you are young and free to roam :)
Tornadoes or not, it'll be a great memory/story in 50 years when you are sitting around the pool in Mesa at happy hour.
Thanks Reed! We're heading up to Plymouth Mi. A bit west of Detroit. First time in years we have drivin up during the holidays to visit family. SO we are kinda hoping for snow so my husband can hang out the window and take picutes while I drive! :0
Yeah Guys I have been telling you people this was going to happen for the past several days!!
An Oklahoma snowstorm possible 10 days out??? AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!
Hey guys what going on??
cool, hope the snow comes for you all then..... good to get into winter now lol
hey Zack
I was just looking at the GFS too, and something sticking out for the end of this weekend is RAIN FOR GEORGIA!?!??!?!!!!! WOW! (it's the 6Z Monday, 162 hr. right now)
I hope so too Tim, of course, WE are going to be driving a while to get to see it, unless it decides to blow toward the mid atlantic! OF course since I am driving and all night at that......through the mountains I will def snow! It always does.
I guess if your driving through mountains you will see snow Kim lol....but i guess you wont be driving at the top end of them either lol..... i cant wait for the snow but i guess we wont get any till January and even then it will probably be no more than 5 inches lol......
Also when you guys are getting a cold front through ive just checked out the pressure graphs for use and it looks as if we have a warm front moving through coming from spain.....
At the moment we have got an occluded front with the current temp at 6 degrees c
Zack dont get to excitied there bud its still 10 days out.
Hey Tim.... and Matt.
@Matt: I know 10 days is a long time, but still!!
@Tim: Tim I am so sorry I didn't get to post pics on your site in time. I posted something on your blog
Reed I herd you were at the airport yesterday.... WERE ARE YOU NOW MAN GET US A HUGE TUBE MAN AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH !@@@#$rhesanesbvahnf
Uh Caleb...lol. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but there is NO severe weather happening. Probably not until next spring.
Lol Zack....no need to say sorry, if anything it should be me saying it....but i will definetly put your pics on next months article no worries......
Hey Matt
lol, yeah Tim it just seems that if my Husband is with me we get hammered with some sort of freak snow storm in the mountains of Maryland, and Pa. We always take the scenic route when we are driving......in case there is a photo op for him. Luckily I GREW up driving in the snow and ice and you just need to BE CAREFUL!
Yeah Tim. I just saw your post today and thought CRAP!! I haven't voted yet but I will.
I'm at work right now, but I'm about to leave.
Ya Caleb Reeds going to MI to visit family for thanksgiving not to chased tornadoes.
Yeh Kim, got to be very careful when driving on snow, very slick and dangerous, but good fun lol :P
Ok Zack cool.....yeh the competition is very close i think, will be interesting to see who wins....Im just on your site now aswell, just looking at some videos :P there good
Seriously Caleb...
Guys I gotta get going. See ya when I get to my house.
Oh Just read his post sorry Reed... I have to go to my ants house for thanksgiving good she has HIGH SPEED INTERNET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
yo reed...do you have any models for the wensday night..thursday snow forcast or anything?
Greg here is the prepatation model for thursday.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_prcp&hours=hr60hr72
this is just weird ^^^^
Also here is the GFS models at 60 and 72 hours prepitation type.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_ptyp&hours=hr072hr060
ahh! just what i was not hoping for it looks like its going to miss to the southeast of southern wisconsin
Id kill for some snow now.....we have had really only one decent storm this year and that was the squall line which came through in september.....but since then nothing lol.... Temp now at 5 degress c....
How is it where everyone else is?
Tim we have had 4 tornadoes this year in Southern Ontario 3 of them in one day. So i shouldbe the one compalining about lack of tornadoes. But the thing is there is so much open land that a tornado could have happened andnobody saw it. I dont know.
And its 3C right now.
Wow 3 in one day....what were they on the EF scale.... getting cold there aswell then lol
Well we have had 0 tornadoes this year here in Lincoln lol :P
We dont go by the EF Scale in Canada were still on the F scale. And the one was a F1 and the two others were weak F0's. But I tell ya im due for a large tornado like manitoba got this year. we had an F4 in 85 and i think we havent got an F3 since. all F2 and lower. i could be wrong. ill look it up.
hahahaha...I had a good laugh this morning at TWC, when they showed a possibility for snow showers. Now I see models indicating it quite clearly, and I'm not laughing as hard.... lol.
Ahh, snow. Just in time for the holiday commute!
How's everyone out there doing?
Careful what you wish for Matt.... that Manitoba tornado was an F4 wasn't it or F3 ...... The strongest tornado we have ever had here was last year about 20-30 miles away from me and that was only an F2..... I wish i had started chasing back then....would of loved to of seen it, i have a pic of it ill post it in a sec
June 3rd 1990, F3 near the town of Port Stanley.
July 15th 1995 F2 near the town of brigdenorth. My trailer was 10km from this tornado. thats why i posted it. And i sleep thought the whole storm. I was 6 at the time.
July 2nd 1997 F3 near Windsor.
August 19th 2005 Major outbreak across Southern Ontario storngest tornado was an F3 near Guelph.
Those are the strongest tornadoes in Southern Ontario since 1985 outbreak that produced a F4 near Barrie ontario.
slight correction tim- from what i hear- they had upgraded the manitoba one from a 4 to a 5
June 22 - June 23, 2007. Eastern Prairie Outbreak. A rare combination of weather systems converged on a June weekend causing severe thunderstorms which spawned at least 8 tornadoes across Southeast Saskatchewan and Southern Manitoba. The most significant, and first F5 tornado in Canada was an F5 which touched down near Elie, Manitoba [4]
wow 10km away from your trailer.....ah shame you slept through it all..... may of seen something interesting lol
Hey AJ....how are ya?
I was 6 at the time i would have been scared as a(cant say on the blog or ill get in trouble)if i was awake. My mom love thunderstorms and see said that she was scared from that storm.
Ah thanks Donny....should know these things but i dont ahhh
Yeh would of been worrying definetly....i guess you just sat the storm out....you werent woken up to go anywhere??
When i was young i was scared to death of thunderstorms and tornadoes. Until i was about 12 or 13 i would say maybe later when i finally starting liking thunderstormsand not until this year the tornado obsession kicked in.
So ya im due for a large tornado in the upcoming years and i hope that i film it.
Ah thats pretty cool.... cant beat a good thunderstorm lol
Just one thing which still puzzels me though....where do we get this passion for i mean what causes us to get interested in weather and others not to....i mean you can say well its all of the severe weather around us here....but what about in other countries which dont get a lot....just a thought lol
anyway guys im out for the night....
i know i said it yesterday but please vote for the pic competition on the monthly article on my site lol.....would be much appreciated and any oppinions on it, thanks...
Have a good one see ya!
Hey Tim, hey everyone. Interesting conversation, I might add my two cents worth... here's the Carlson chase team from Colorado, intercepting a great storm from the GCK last year. I was there too, it was fairly intense, considering all the aspects of the storm. Check it out.
http://www.stormchaserco.com/20060507.html
A tornado is the main reason chasers get started: they want to either learn more about one, or simply get close and catch is on film. In our own Reed Timmer's case, it's both, and that's the way it is for most chasers I know. That's how it is for me. It's the chase after the unknown that grabs you and doesn't let go. It's addicting as hell.
this is just my opinion but tornadoes are the biggest unknown in weather. Hurricanes would be up there also.
Were do i go to find models from previous dates.
The weather itself is rather unknown, but that's my opinion as well. That's a part of why they're so blooming fascinating. lol. Gotta love it.
I got mine from NOAA website, I don't know about anyone else.... someone might have one better.
Must get to work... be back later.......
man it was snowing so hard today but it did not stick one bit cuz the ground was above 32 today stinks it was becuz we could had so much snow but next town over up a hill close to us had delayed opening and half day today
Alright see ya later AJ.
omg u gotta see this video its crazy of a water spout turning into a tornado strong as hell
http://youtube.com/watch?v=pfFxuLBXZXY i forgot to paste it
Kim - I grew up in Western MD so I know exactly what you mean. I think last year they had a sleet storm over Thanksgiving. :D You guys should stop in Grantsville (exit 19 on I-68) so he can get a photo of the stone bridge over the Casselman River.
http://www.dnr.state.md.us/publiclands/western/casselman.html
Hey guys....
So whats going on weatherwise??? I have the possibility of snow this weekend with highs in the 30's!! Brrrrrrr!
we had snow today i would get video just my camra is dead and it is cold here to but chance of rain of thx given
Hey justin, Where do you live?
I live in Oklahoma.
Hey justin, Where do you live?
I live in Oklahoma.
oops.... Double post.
nj here we get alot of snow at times but not to much of the svr weather
Great Heidi, We love I 68, exit 19, I will tell him. We cannot stand the PA turnpike, so we go 68 the best part of the trip!
Ya ive seen that video before.
Now correct me if im wrong. When i waterspout comes inland it becomes a landspout not a tornado right????
Here in Oklahoma, we see a ton of severe weather! But less snow.
Sometimes I wish it was the other way around.
Matt, when a waterspout comes inland it becomes a tornado I'm sure.
Man its so warm here in edmonton...for this time of the year...highs of like 39 F i remember 2 years ago we had a couple days of like - 55 f to -60 f was lame ass cold but sorta fun.
well i guess that was with the windchill
yes it does zack- Landspouts most often occur in drier areas with high-based storms and considerable low-level instability. They generally are smaller and weaker than supercellular tornadoes, though many persist in excess of 15 minutes and some have produced F3 damage. They bear an appearance and generative mechanism highly similar to that of waterspouts, usually taking the form of a translucent and highly laminar helical tube. Like waterspouts, they are also technically considered tornadoes since they are defined by an intensely rotating column of air in contact with both the surface and a cumuliform cloud. Not all landspouts are visible, and many are first sighted as debris swirling at the surface before eventually filling in with condensation and dust.
Trust me Mike. The cold air will come sooner or later. It just has to. Here in Oklahoma It has been warm in the 80's when our average high is 59 degrees. #9 degrees here will be well below our average. And guess what, those are the highs here for thanksgiving and beyond!
With snow posssible on Wednesday!!
one thing i jsut re-read and forgot to mention is that landspouts are not associated with a mesocyclone
WOW.... Donny you sure know A LOT about tornadoes and stuff. But hey I'm only 15 and still have a lot to learn.
Oh and in my post at 6:50 I meant 39 degrees and not #9 degrees. Type WAY too fast.
well dont worry zach- dont feal bad im only 22-about to turn 23 anything you want to learn you know where to find me- if you have aol- im under tornadomaster22 or in yahoo messanger you can find me under iron_chef17
Hey Thanx for the nice comment Kim!! My mom says she loves that pic too!! I'll blow it up and frame it one of these days!! I wish I coulda stayed on that cell and captured a few more pics!!
Yeah... the image in the post is tripping me out man!! hehe
Incense and Peppermint has given way to Innagadadavida.
Brady: I think all we have to do is stop looking at it! :D
Ya if one was a little under the influence of something that would be pretty sweet. Not saying ur under the influence of something if ya know what i mean.
Hehe!! Are you listening to my playlist and watching this too?? hehe!!
Here in Alberta the heavy populated areas have no snow at all. Looks like the old -20 with no snow routine.
Freezes the lakes and rivers very quickly.
Also this weather leads to pipes bursting underground
Ok my opinion has changed about that freakin thing its pretty bad once ya been looking at it for a while
It goes with Helter Skelter pretty good!! Reminds me of High school again!!
I mean ... I guess I have just been subjected to waaaay too much 60s-70s music to not be troubled by that graphic. :D THAT's what I'm under the influence of. Any former Haight Ashbury residents who wander on here might feel differently about things, but I can only speculate.
In my first year of high school i was in the drugs and ya i shouldnt have to go any further with that. But i dont do drugs anymore i just drink like no tomorrow
AAAHHAHAAH everybody left me :(:(
Hey the best music became of the 60's and 70's!! Cars too!!! I never really got into DRUGS persay!! but I have been to a doobie brother concert if ya know what I mean!! A lotta my buddies got into the other stuff and it did them no good!! Meth is just everywhere up here and I'm sick of seeing all my old friends and people dying from the shit!! besides it stinks just hard!! I've been in rooms after meth was smoked and even during!! It is just disgusting!! I don't get it!!
Posted in the wrong one. Mike here's the CG shot.
http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/1986/cgstriketq4.jpg
Man my first year and half of high school i was on drugs and it was messing me up big time. So i made a like 2 second decision to quit or not and i decided to quit. It got to the point where i was looking more to getting high then going home and going homework. I quess thats why i almost had to go for 6 years of high school. Had to pass all 8 of my class in 5th year to graduate. And i did. And if i still did drugs id probably still be in high school.
That is a great shot Kenny!! How did ya pull it off??
Mike R : I hear ya there!! Last winter we hardly had any snow until March 1st then we got nailed!! Before that pipes were bursting all over town, black ice everywhere!! I like it when we get our first snows like we did this year, our first good storm near Thanksgiving, and about 2ft at Christmas!!
My friend used his camera phone to get it. He used his fast finger pressing skills.
Ya u gotta have fast ass fingers to get a good CG lightning strike.
Sorry, My friend keep's changing the stupid sites...This is the final pic. This is the one you put on your site, Mike.
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/8939/cgstrikeeg8.jpg
Man check out this pic that i just found. Its Hurricane Katrina's eyewall from up close and personal.
http://nasadaacs.eos.nasa.gov/articles/images/2006_hurricanes_eyewall.jpg
That pic is insane!! Wow!! Kenny.. How did you get that pic?? did ya save it from vid?? That's awesome!!
It's a common misconception that you have to be really fast to get lightning photos. What you really need to do is have a very *slow* shutter speed. What I do is hold the shutter wide-open with the remote release. (I'm of course doing this somewhere where it's really dark, so I don't have to worry about extra light getting in and polluting the shot.) Finally, when a good CG has been recorded, I advance to the next shot. Same thing applies if I'm getting shots of a cell, with lots of lightning inside of the storm istelf.
No Brady. My friend got that with the camera shot on his camera phone. He used pro finger skills to get it before it dissapated. It wasn't saved from video.
I forgot a minor detail ... all of this is with the camera on a tripod. ;)
I can tell you all that temperatures are finally normal around here, as in below 0 C and at night below -10 C, and it's finally snowing more too :). Here's what I left behind at home:
http://photos-a.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-sf2p/v136/125/92/655785264/n655785264_1699376_2799.jpg
Ahh, the scene is pretty nice SK. Reminds me of living in the country when I was a younger kid ;)
Heidi, good advice. I need some like that. lol. All of my lightning pics come out blurry or a millisecond behind. And yes, a tripod helps ALOT. lol.
Hey everyone, what's up?
Thanks AJ, it was before daylight so it didnt turn out the clearest :P.
You dont always need a tripod to get a good lightning shot ;). I got one with my old camera before I had continuous shot setting, even.
Here's another tutorial thing on lightning stuff. You can skip over the technical stuff at the top & check out the stuff under "Night Time Lightning Photography" for the basics.
AJ, I know exactly what you mean. I only just started lightning stuff this year. It takes a lot of dedication & practice to get good shots!
Oops. Here's the link:
http://www.lightningphotography.com/tips.html
Yep, it's difficult at first, but you get the hang of it... some slower than others... lol. If nothing else, it's a good time filler while out chasing, and your stopped on the side of a road, waiting for the precip core to pass. ;)
Do you guys want to see one of my old ones for the heck of it?
i wonder when its gunna snow here again
Old pics are awesome SK ;) lol. Let me see if I can dig some up...
Where is "here" justin?
Haha cool AJ, I wanna see some old ones too. Here's mine...some of you have likely seen it before.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v481/num1habfan/lightning2.jpg
Aw crud, I have to go. I'll leave you guys with a pic of some nice southern Colorado scenery, and a mild rain shower. See ya later!
http://i19.tinypic.com/6qbmmup.jpg
WoW!! Bad ass pic!! That is nice!! I do have a tripod!! I just haven't had a real good chance to use it!! I did when I made made my lil vid last summer!! I need a lil better cam still!!
Lol Brady who's pic you talking about?
I was talking about your lightning shot!! That pic of AJ's is great too!! hehe!!
Haha ok well then thank you very much ;). It's one of my favourites. Imagine if I used my old camera as much as I did this one and could take higher quality shots ha!
The one that took that lightning-less than 4000 pics over 3 years...vs. 11483 and counting in 16 months
I've had my cam for about 4 or 5 years now!! It was awesome when it was new, but it's time for an upgrade! The batteries are as old as the cam too!! the pics I think are fine! I'm more or less looking for better quality vid!!
Brady if you give me your email address I'll like you to a video from my digital to give you an idea of its quality, if you want?
shadetree6981@yahoo.com That would be great!!
Well..I'm not sure if my friend has the video anymore..I highly doubt it...But we made a video on July 23rd of a severe storm that rolled through edmonton. We filmed and caught 3 CG strike's hitting all at once beside each other..It was awsome1!! I miss that lightning :(. Next year I swear I'm bringing home some nice pictures! One of them hiding inside are going to be pictures/video of a tornado hehehe
Yep, I don't mind at all. Just loading it online.
Kenny!! Yoyu and me both need some tubes!! Northern Minny is due for a big ef4!! I'd like to see one tossing trees everywhere!! Even though it's hard to find a good view around here, it is the land of 10,000 lakes!! That should help me in my quest for a waterspout!! I'm already gearing up to head to SD or wherever as soon as the storms come back!!
Sent it Brady!
Yeah Brady! I'll be Bike chasing a couple more year's maybe..depeding when Me or my Bike chasing partner aren't so lazy and get our license. Oh well, I'm enjoying Bike chasing!! It's just scary when your wet and theres massive lightning around you!
hmm EF4 tornado here in N.MN, now that be something to see!!
Hey one can dream!! How's it goin tonight Tim??
Hey Brady, i'm not doing too bad, i have the night off from work, so it's all good.. If i remember right, the last real big tornado here close to home was the Siren WI one a few years ago back in June.. Were about due..
Now that's Hi Def!! wow!! hehe!!
Yeah!! Do you remember a tornado in the mid 80's That I guess hit the West End Lincoln Park area?? I remember we were in the Twin Cities at the time and there was terrible tornadoes down there!! I was really little at the time!!
I was camping with my family over in Hayward WI at the KOA when that big storm came thru Duluth, it happened on Grandma's Marathon..well later that Afternoon..I remember they had a tornado warning out in Hayward for a possible tornado around Nelson Lake..
And my brother and I were out chasing the day that Siren WI was hit by that tornado, but we stayed over in Pine and Aitkin Counties and a bit too far north/west of where the tornado would develop..But, we could see the massive thunderhead off to our E-SE, i have pics of them, i didn't have a digital camera back then, but i do have the pics, actually i was just looking at them a few nights ago..
That's right!! It was Grandma's weekend!! I was only maybe 5!! We went to Valley Fair for the weekend!! I remember everyone making a big fuss about hte storm and then goin home and seeing some footage of a wicked tornado( which I've seen quite a few times since). It was so long ago!!
Well... Siren just proves that we're not completely safe from big tornadoes around here! That was a terrible tornado!!
yea i would've been 8..holy crap!!! i remember coming back from Hayward and the closer we got to the city we could see all sorts of debris, and out in West End all these huge massive trees toppled...it was quite the sight!
oh were not protected from tornadoes i don't believe anyone who says that we are.. Yea Lake Superior zaps alot of the intensity out of the storms..Especially in April and May, but after that were fair game, just like anyone else. Sure, the frequency of such severe weather isn't as high around this area compared to the Plains, but when we do get outbreaks, i think there pretty widespread..
I guess our storm season doesn't really fire up until June or July!! Duluth seems to get a tornado warning every few years!! it seems like the years we have on, we have a few!!
Hopefully '08 we can get some good cells to fire up so we can try to get these guys up here!!
it would be nice, that's for sure. I was pretty disappointed how last Summer turned out up in this area, we had quite a few chances, but nothing really would develop, i blame the cap, also on the drought that was going on most of the Summer up around here.. The high risk day we had in early June though, was by far the most disappointing day for me this past Summer..arg!
cap is right!! Looking at your pics it seems you've made the best of your trips "unmanageable" cap or not!! I hardly got any pics from my chases down the I-35!! only a few vids!! It's hard to film and drive at the same time!! hehe
Here's a lil vid I took somewhere between here and St.Cloud!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=es2Pd2JcA6U
very cool vid Brady, lol i can't believe u were driving and shot the video at the sametime, wow! lol. Oh yea, definately made the best out of my trips this past Summer, still would've liked to see something a lil more interesting, especially with some of the set-ups we had around this area this past Summer, but hey that's how it goes sometimes with the weather, just gotta keep watching it and learning more about it..
Hehe!! Dash cam rocks!! I can kinda wedge my cam between the lip of my dash and two pop cans in the cup holder! It kinda stays there!! Makes me a lil less of a rolling road hazard!!
Well... ya got my digits!! Next year when things fire up we should be able to cover some good ground!! The fine folks who post here are really helpful with info and watching cells!! They have been so much help to me I can't even begin to explain!! '08 is gonna be fun!!
I'll have to dig up some info on the Siren WI tornado and post it one of these days!! It would make a good off season case study!! I gotta crash!! I have to go work for 2hrs today!! hardly worth getting outta bed for, but I told a buddy I would cover for him!! Have a good nite Tim!! I'll be speaking to ya soon!!
Morning guys.....
welll highs and lows for today for us are going to be 9 c - 3 c.....at the moment it is only 7 c....too cold lol
Hope everyone has a good day se ya!
(first of sorry i kinda accidently posted this on the wrong post before this one)
remember the siren wi tornado- it formed near a triple point - became and hp supercell- cut path width of 1/2 mile wide and was on the ground for 20 miles- whats really sad is that the towns only tornado siren was not working at the time- the key ingredient for tornado develoment was the presence of strong directional shear associated with the surface warm front-beacause of the storms relative location to the front lower level backing of surface winds was occuring-this not only created surface wind convergence-which aided in vertical upward motion- but it aided in higher helcity locally- in the case of the siren tornado helicity was at 300 m^2 s^2 - also- siren had a southwest wind at the surface- while a westerly wind aloft- i can't think of anything else i can add
Heidi, that was a great artical about the castleman bridge. We have a road called Braddock now I know where it came from! I just hope we can make the trip now, last night I had to rush my younest daughter to the emergency room, she couldn't breath thought she had something stuck in her throat, since she couldn;t talk either. Scary stuff.....ended up being some sort of virus. The Dr. wants were to lay low for a few days. SO I just may end up here after all but we can't risk her health. I am sure Grandma will understand!
Whoa Kim, scary about your daughter. ... Hope she's doing better! Road trips can be made another time. :)
I think Reed is getting snow on the day of the turkey.
Whats up fellas? I hope it will snow on turkey day! Take care, and HAVE A GREAT TIME!
Whats happening all? It is warm and windy in Ohio today. 64 right now going on up to near 70 and more of the same tomorrow with some thunder and rain expected. Thanksgiving will turn colder with highs only around 40. Have a good Turkey Day.
Hey guys....whats going on??
its been raining all day here, no stop!! ah its real boring....
Hope you guys get the snow you want for thanks giving....
Thanks Heidi, Just trying to keep her from running around is the problem. So she is feeling a bit better. And we will def make that road trip a different time. I just hope some of that snow blows this way.......! It is one of the things I miss about Michigan, as weird as it seems, is the SNOW!
Here is a part of the FTW Forcast Discusson (DFW)
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SFC-15000 FEET
THINGS COULD TAKE A TURN FOR THE WORST OVER THE
WEEKEND....ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. WE/LL KEEP EVALUATING MODEL TRENDS
FOR NOW AND KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION LIQUID. 75
By the way, for comparison, Its around 80 here right now.
We could have record high temps here today. It's 72 and rising - cloudcover has given way to blue sky and so the temp. is shooting up. The record for Jonesboro is 78. It's probably gonna fall today!
767 - cool! :D
lucky you heidi lol im stuck int he clouds here in jacksonville with temps in the upper 60s- and drizzle- jsut wait till tommorow as we are under a slight risk for severe storms- including the potential for isolated brief tornados and then a rain snow mix possibly bye the weekend- one thing i can say is the weather is never dull except when theres a big dome of high pressure at the surface and capping going on
Hey guys whats going on??
Wow Heidi....thats is lucky lol....id kill for those sorts of temps now ....too cold lol
Donny i was going to ask u what do u think about tomorrows chances?????
thanks for that info. Donny about the Siren WI tornado. I remember when i left Duluth MN to chase that day it was in the 40s here in the city with east winds off Lake Superior, so definately had to get out of that muck in order to have a chance at some severe weather, sadly we went more SW, should've went SE..live and learn i guess.. 2 hours of work Brady? WOW, ya that would suck, but hey it's some $ at least..
Yeah I'm in a slight risk tomarrow too WWWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
just depends on who gets sunshine i know cloud cover will limit sb instability- despite that- looking at the latest model readings-it shows 0-3 km srh helcity over 250 in eastern 1/2 of arkansas, west central miss. and western tenn. and 0-1 srh values of 200 around the same area as the 0-3 km helicity- and the strongest sb capes on southeastern 1/2 of arkansas where up to 1500 j/kg is possible- and ml cape around the same- so yes i do think there is the possibility of severe weather- but i think the main limiting factor is lack of sunshine- of course stronger wind fields would hel- so in my opinion- southeastern arkasnas, western tenn. and norther miss. will have the best chances of storms - with tornados
Hey Tim: I was actually chasing during the Siren day as well. We started off in southern MN but the winds veered ahead of the cold front and the dewpoints mixed out. Then supercells fired on the pre-frontal trough ahead of the veered flow and went nuts in the jungle of central WI. We had a clear air bust along the cold front...one of many in MN over the last 10 years!
Interesting setup tomorrow Donny...I'll be adding a blog post about it when the 00z models come out.
Yeah I have a possabilty of hail maby some wind I have'nt checked the CAPE values yet but there pretty good. I have a 0-2 but that's still good.
i look forward to it reed i know jacksonville (my city) is due for a decent severe t-storm- last time we got skipped-and last time we had a good t-storm and produced wind damage at my house- and i reported it- the spc didn't even post it- which dissapointed me
Ok just checked them but this i'snt it this is some thing else
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_048l.gif
Shame Donny always nice to get your reports out there....
sorry guys i had to head out again and now i only have like half an hour befor i shall go to bed :(
Tim what time is it at your house? it's 5:12 here
its 10:22 here Caleb...6 hours ahead of parts of America, but im not sure of the time differences across America.
It is also 8 degrees c here, with rain which hasn't stopped all day.....what is it where you are?
Reed i must ask you this question before i do anything. Im deepy into Nascar Racing and i've started painting cars. So i was wondering if i could use your logo to make a tornadovideos.net race car. Its for my video game. I really want to do this.
Is it just me, or does the day 2 sound kinda outbreakish?
Just sayin.
wow talk of severe weather.....i like that lol
Anyway guys im out for the night, have a good one see ya!!
@ Matt were can i find a videogame like that?
@strike maby about 2 tornadoes here is the SPC outlook
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif
A Nascar game. The latest game out for PC is Nascar SimRacing which i have. And i needs Reeds permission to paint a tornadovideos.net car.
I like it, Strike. I mean, it's late November. If there are 10 tornado warnings and one or two tornados, I say we get to call it an outbreak! ;) I'm liking Sunday/Monday for Alabama, Georgia, etc. for the real thing, though.
i feal ya there heidi- i mean if the gfs model pans out with this closed low- and speaking of video games- i wish there was a tornado chasing video game where you get out the warnings as quickly as possible, calling it in as quick as possible, having a fast car to keep up with the storms you know with how fast they can go- and how they can change directions, etc.