News DetailPowerful Tropical Cyclone Sidr heading for Calcutta, India and Bangladesh!
Posted At: November 14, 2007 @ 10:44 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
Tropical Cyclone Sidr, with maximum sustained winds currently estimated at 130 knots with gusts to 160 knots, is heading straight for the populated and storm surge-prone Southeast India/western Bangladesh Coast, including the city of Calcutta, India. The satellite image below from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the textbook tropical cyclone in the center of the Bay of Bengal, where water temperatures are some of the warmest in the world!
Wave heights are estimated to be around 10 m (33 ft) in the vicinity of the eye, setting the stage for a potentially catastrophic storm surge at landfall in about 36 hours, especially immediately east of the eye. Compounding the severity of the situation, the mouths of the Ganges and Padma Rivers are located in this region, which will likely experience a 20 foot wall of water if located immediately east of the eye, as 100+ knot southerlies will "pile-up" the water within these inlets. Shown below is the official track map of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which shows the storm making landfall shortly before 00z on Nov 16. Stay tuned for updates on this dangerous situation.
Wave heights are estimated to be around 10 m (33 ft) in the vicinity of the eye, setting the stage for a potentially catastrophic storm surge at landfall in about 36 hours, especially immediately east of the eye. Compounding the severity of the situation, the mouths of the Ganges and Padma Rivers are located in this region, which will likely experience a 20 foot wall of water if located immediately east of the eye, as 100+ knot southerlies will "pile-up" the water within these inlets. Shown below is the official track map of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which shows the storm making landfall shortly before 00z on Nov 16. Stay tuned for updates on this dangerous situation.
Here is another higher-resolution satellite image that also shows the Himalayas to the north of Bangladesh!
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This deffinetly sounded interesting from what James said in the last blog, but i hope it doesn't kill anyone.
oO I hope it doesnt slam into that river delta there are like 40million people living there.
Here's what the winds blew in overnight:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v481/num1habfan/IMG_1477.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v481/num1habfan/IMG_1478.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v481/num1habfan/IMG_1479.jpg
Hey folks!! I'm finally off for a day!! How's everyone??
Hey Tim!! Sorry I've been so distant!! Work is a biatch!!
How's things in the UK?? I added a few more pics to my myspace front page!!
Hey Brady how is things lately???? I hear ya about work its a big time pain in the ass.
That's a nice lil dusting SKgirl!! I'm hoping for some of that later today!! We had a nice snow here last week!! It all melted though! =( Here's another neat looking sky pic I took the other day!! Now if only I had a D-200
http://s195.photobucket.com/albums/z285/shadetree6981/Nov%2011th%202007/?action=view¤t=1112.jpg
Always peoples im out for some lunch ill be back soon.
Thanks Brady, I'll send you the snow but I don't think you'd want the 80km+ winds lol. There was a bit of ice pellets in there too, everything is a bit slippery.
I wish the snow would stick around too, maybe now that the temp is gonna be around 0 or under it will stay..its already melting. :/
I don't want to say this at all, but this could very easily be on the level (or worse) of the tsunami in Indonesia, etc. a few years ago. You have to wonder what, if anything, can be done to prevent massive, catastrophic loss of life in this situation. :-/
Ya i agree Heidi i think that this could be close or even worse than what happened a couple years ago.
P.S. Dont cloud watch while cooking food. Almost burnt my burgers cloud watching
33ft waves... I couldn't imagine looking at something like that!! I agree Heidi!!! I think this'll be hell for them!!
Combine the coastal setting, river deltas and impending storm/surge/waves with one of the highest (not to mention poorest) population densities on earth NOT GOOD!!!!!!!!!!
I wonder what kind/if any warnings are issued, or, really, what they can do at all to have people (THAT MANY!) evacuate???
here are some satellite pictures of the trpoical cyclone:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/indian/images/images.html
Well... It does look TEXTBOOK that's for sure!!
Ya i was going to say that things looks amazing.
But when it comes down the situation isnt good right now
That storm has to go somewhere, and there are basically no good options. Wow.
Thanks for the link, Cors.
Ya i quess your right Heidi it has to go somewere but to bad its going were its going.
Here is a hi-res (6mb) satellite shot of Sidr:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2007318-1114/Sidr.A2007318.0445.250m.jpg
Hey guys sos i went out for a bit....
Hey Brady it ok really lol no need to say sorry i understand your very busy......how are you? and things are good here thanks :D
1970 Bhola cyclone, which formed in the Bay of Bengal and hit Bangladesh on November 12. The storm killed over 500,000 people
That's cool!! It's lightly snowing here! =) not much though, mostly flurries!
just wondering on this slide show 55 seconds is this the palm sunday tornado cuz looks like a double weadge tornado and deadly?
Ah cool, looks as if you beat us in winter weather aswell lol :), and nice picures on your myspace, there real good man.....
we have finally reached freazing temperatures here, im hoping the lake behind my house will freeze over again soon
wow incredible image PB!
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/Centralarkansasradar.jpg
heres the current radar look- im fixing to go outside and make a few videos- and then i'll have my dad upload them- its really dark outside yeeeeeeehawwwwwwww
Hey guys! Guess what? models have been suggesting a powerful front moving through my region next week. At the same time, a vigorous upper level storm system will move through possibly bringing light snow!!!!
they have been doing this for some time zach lol- but i can't wait in a sc going to look at the gfs precip type 12z run
It does look like a nice storm going through Little Rock!!
yeah it does brady- the one that just missed jacksonvile had max hail size of 1.75 and a tornado vortex signature- but the brunt of it missed us- but we still got 25-35 mph winds as you'll see in the video later on
thats gotta be the most intense satellite image of a hurricane/trop storm/cyclone/typhoon ive ever seen PB!
as beautiful as it looks, like heidi mentioned above, the situation doesnt look good at all over there. i hope the loss of life, if any, isnt catastrophic...wow.
Yeah thanks for sharing that PB. You can see all the river mouths on the coast...not good for storm surge.
Sadly, I bet most of the people don't even know it's coming. This area of the world also receives massive devastating supercell tornadoes during the spring. Strong drylines move off the Himalayan Plateau and huge HP supercells develop along the boundary. The population density there is out of control too as Heidi mentioned.
I think it was Cors that said in 1970 something simular to this happened and 500,000 people died. Man i hope its not the same this time around.
Posted By Cors | November 14, 2007 @ 3:24 PM #
1970 Bhola cyclone, which formed in the Bay of Bengal and hit Bangladesh on November 12. The storm killed over 500,000 people
Ive heard about cyclone bhola, from what ive read and seen it was horrible i hope nothing on that size and scale happens again.
im ut for the night guys speak to yall tomorrow, have a good one see ya!
Looks like they had a tornado out east today along with several reports of severe weather. Great picture PB on the typhoon even though it's going to be tuff for them.
Yeah, I seen a tornado warning in KY just a lil bit ago!!
Tornado warning in KY? Really? Awesome! haha
Hey everyone, what's up?
yup aj there sure was- it was confirmed on the ground- and i have some footage thts going to be uuploaded earlier from the storms we had today
Donny were do you live man???
i live in northeastern pulaski county (arkansas)
Cool deal Donny. I'll have something to entertain myself when I get home tonite. lol.
Gotta go, see ya in a bit!
Nice Donny! Hope ya got some great video! It's boring around here...Nothing good lately but the Wind Event we had yesterday. I can't wait till Severe Weather season starts again! Or Severe Winter season! Either one, I hope come's soon!
Getting chilly out!! 32f but the windchills at 20!! I hope it can stay cold like this!! I don't wanna lack snow this year too!!
What's the current sitrep on Sidr??
Lots of TVS on the tor warned storm in TN if anyone cares.
its 8 minutes of footage kenny- i think its pretty decent i know some debris got in my eye but its out- and technically severe weather season never ends :p just the more organized events are in spring- and the second season begins in fall/winter
Donny did you see a tornado or what.
negatory matt- it was just some strong winds its funny it was going strong untill it hit jacksonville- which is where i live- then it weakens in jacksonville- and then after it went threw jacksonville- it became severe again
was'nt there a bad tornado in '96? or '97
Reed - thanks so much for putting a blog together regarding this, it really needs attention.
The 1970 Bhola cyclone's (300,000-500,000 dead) 37 year anniversary was only 2 days ago. In 1991 an April storm smacked Bangladesh and killed upwards of 130,000 people.
JTWC still carrying Sidr at 130kts gusting 160kts. If I could be there I would - combination of visa issues and cash flow is preventing me.
man seeing 130,000 people an 300,000-500,000 people dead from 2 storms isnt good. But there on the downward track. first it was 500,000 then 130,000 dead. Just trying to make a positive of this very bad situation
Damage was reported in Marion County, Tn along I-24 unknown if it was a tornado, though there was warning for the storm in Marion and Hamilton Counties, which includes the city of Chattanooga. Well I wish I could stay and find out more but I have to go to work.
Yeah matt your right the tornado of 96 and 89 put together would prolly add up to about 750 deaths but that is a disaster of an Imints magnutude!
The Daulatpur - Saturia, Bangladesh Tornado was an extremely destructive tornado that occurred in the Manikganj District, Bangladesh on 26 April 1989. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the death toll, but typical estimates indicate that it killed around 1,300 people, which would make it the deadliest tornado in recorded history. The twister injured over 12,000 and left more than 80,000 people homeless.
The tornado reportedly had a path 16 kilometres (10 mi) long, reportedly destroying all structures in an area of 6 square kilometres (2.3 sq mi). The deadly incident occurred in the evening hours at around 1830 hours local time.
On May 13, 1996, a disastrous tornado hit the Tangail district of Bangladesh, killing more than 700 people and causing extensive damage to homes, crops, and livestock. This paper explores and analyzes how tornado victims adjusted to this destruction. Data collected from two study sites show that victims received emergency assistance from people both in neighboring areas and from more distant areas, as well as from government agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). At both sites, NGOs played the leading role in minimizing the hardships of victims through extraordinary disaster relief and rehabilitation efforts. Because of the extensive support received, the tornado victims were able to return to their “normal” lives very quickly. This study concludes with several recommendations to help cope with future tornado disasters.
I think Bangladesh needs an advanced warning system put into employment... there's obviously a lot of people in that area, it makes ALOT of sense. I would try and help if I could.
Hey everyone, how's the evening?
All good here thanks AJ. Sidr is taking up most of my time at the moment. The Bangladesh government have constructed lots of elevated cyclone shelters but will there be enough to cater for all the people living in the region. I doubt it?
Expect this to be worldwide headline news within 36 hours.
Hey James, nice work! A very sad incident indeed, but at least the government is making an effort.
And I'm a journalism student; I watch the news a lot. lol. I'll keep an eye on it.
jw does any one have video of hat ornado in kentucky?
Welp, I'm out for the nite! Thanks for all the updates guys! And I wanna see that Kentucky twister too, if there's a video...
Catcha later!
Thanks for the updates James...This really is going to be catastrophic. Imagine Hurricane Katrina with a third world infrastructure, substantially higher population density, and limited government response....and possibly even a higher storm surge. very bad situation.
Congrats on the strong winds Donny! must be nice!
lol thanks reed- i have seen better-but not bad for november- what i really wanted to show was was there was 3 seperate concentrated of leaves rotating around like a tornado- it was so cool- but it was able to pick it up though
what i mean was wasn't
Here's what CNN is saying about the typhoon:
*Thousands evacuated in southern Bangladesh
*Port cities of Chittagong, Mongla and Cox's Bazar put on the highest alert
*Cyclone in the Bay of Bengal packing winds of 215 kph
*Low-lying river delta region routinely hit by cyclones and floods
Volunteers helped evacuate thousands of people Wednesday from Bangladesh's southern coast and the government warned ships to seek shelter as a cyclone roared offshore.
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department issued a bulletin putting the low-lying country's three major maritime ports - Chittagong, Mongla and Cox's Bazar - on the highest alert.
Authorities suspended operations at the country's main seaport, Chittagong, while volunteers helped thousands of people move to cyclone shelters and other safer areas along the southern coast, state-run Bangladesh Television said.
The cyclone was in the Bay of Bengal, about 420 miles (675 km) south-southwest of Cox's Bazar, with winds of up to 134 mph (215 kph), forecasters said.
Zack, I just read your last post. Where do you live?
Freezing rain warning out for the western half of central Alberta. We got it here for about 15 minutes, just enough to lay about 1/4 inch of ice all over everything. Could be traffic chaos this morning, looks like there is more on the way.
http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.wwcn16.CWWG.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.wwcn15.CWWG.html
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=PAC
Morining guys.....
well i said yesterday i hope the lake behind my house freezes over soon and it has!!
me and my friends can play the stone throwing game and see who gets theres the furthest along the lake lol :P
this cyclone really is not looking good, im late home today by 5 hours!!! but i will try and stay informed on it.
see you all later have a good one!
Sidr is now a catastrophic cat 5 according to JTWC. Sustained winds of 135kts. Landfall is due in less than 12 hours at 130kts. Track has shifted east places more vulnerable coastline at risk. This is worst case scenario.
In all my years of following the weather I have never felt such a sense of dread as I do now.
cant we nuke the mofo or maybe the chineese can help with their rain program? I guess not :(
heres the video's i promised- dont know why its kinda blurry- and the reason that its moving all over place is because i was filming with a regular camcorder- and then my cellphone
http://s215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/?action=view¤t=Video000.flv theres the first video
http://s215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/?action=view¤t=Video001.flv theres the second video- enjoy
I think Reed needs to look at the models, and post about the possibility of a blizzard next week.
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