News DetailCase Study: April 2, 2006 Tornado Outbreak!
Posted At: November 11, 2007 @ 2:25 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Summary:
With 850 total severe wind, hail, and tornado reports, April 2 was the most active severe weather day during the 2006 season. The most significant tornadoes occurred over Northeast Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, and Western Tennessee, with a single long-track supercell producing two F3 tornadoes that severely damaged the communities of Marmaduke, AR; Caruthersville, MO; and Newbern, TN. 66 tornadoes were produced over 7 states, but most of these were weak and brief in nature in eastern IA or associated with the linear convective system that evening in IL. Sadly, 29 fatalities occurred from this outbreak, with most associated with the long-track tornadic supercell that developed in Northeast AR and tracked into western TN.
Shown below is a loop of the national radar mosaic with severe weather watches overlaid from 18z to just after 00z on April 2, 2006. As can be seen in the loop, severe thunderstorms developed very early in the day in southeast IA and central MO in a very highly sheared environment with marginal instability. Much of this convection was linear in nature, with embedded mini-supercells. As mentioned above, several weak, brief tornadoes were produced in southeast IA just east of the surface with these storms. Later in the day, strong supercell thunderstorms developed in southeast MO and northeast AR along the cold front in an environment that was also highly sheared, but also had extreme instability. Surprisingly, none of the watches issued by the SPC were of the PDS variety.
Weather Analysis Maps:
RUC analysis maps for 2300 UTC April 2, 2006 for 500 mb, 850 mb, and the surface are displayed below, which is around the time of the significant tornadoes in the central MS River Valley. At first glance, the optimal forecast target for tornadoes south be in southeast IA and northeast MO just east of the surface low along the warm front, where surface winds would be extreme backed and the nose of the LLJ would exist. Here, you would expect a NNE moving supercell to experience favorable storm-relative low-level shear with easterly winds at the surface, but as can be seen in the 850 mb map (upper right), the LLJ was likely too veered to generate a textbook hodograph for significant tornadoes...this could have been the reason why most of the tornadoes were weak and brief in nature (even though the instability was low, there was zero CIN and low LCLs in this region). I'd like to see a more southerly if not SSE-ly LLJ in this region, which was not the case. Most storm chasers on this day selected the northern mode on this day, and missed the significant tornadoes further south. If we were chasing, we may have done the same! However learning from events such as this are what prevent future busts.
.jpg)
As is typical with massive severe weather outbreaks, they are usually "bi-modal" in nature, which means that the severe weather reports are often focused in two main areas: one to the north in the vicinity of or just to the east of the surface low, and further south where instability is maximized but wind shear is still sufficient for tornadoes. The southern mode of this event was obviously over Northeast AR, Southeast MO, and western TN, but there are several reasons why this area might be overlooked at first glance for tornadoes. First, the cold frontal boundary is oriented more southeast to northeast further south, which might make it difficult for storms to move off the boundary and remain discrete with an advancing cold front. However, it can clearly be seen from the 500 mb map above that upper-level winds are just north of due-westerly over this region, so supercell storm motions should be easterly if not ESE-ly for a right-mover. Thus, any supercells that develop along the cold front in this region should easily move off the front, preventing any undercutting action or rapid transitions to a linear convective modes. One might also think that the LLJ is too veered in this region, with WSW-ly 850 mb flow at 40+ knots. However, this favors the development of strong tornadoes with an ESE-ly or even southeasterly moving supercell. Still though, hodographs must be diligently analyzed to see if ample storm-relative low-level shear can be attained. Another positive aspect of the southern mode is the much deeper moisture and high instability, which is usually the case.
One key development as late afternoon progressed into evening over the central MS River Valley was the backing of the surface winds over the southern mode region. Earlier in the day, surface winds were predominantly out of the southwest if not WSW just east of the cold front, likely due to strong mixing of the westerly momentum air down to the surface with afternoon heating. These veered surface winds initially limited the low-level shear and the tornado potential. Correspondingly, the supercells over this region were initially non-tornadic and rather high-based, but as the anvil shadows decreased surface heating and mixing, and as peak heating passed, the surface winds backed to a more SSW-ly direction in the storm environment, which created plenty of low-level shear for strong tornadoes.
Reports and Damage Surveys:
Ignoring the tornado reports in central IL that were associated with bow echos and embedded supercells in a linear convective system, the bi-model structure of this outbreak can be seen clearly in the tornado reports. The distinct west-to-east lines of several tornado reports in northeast AR eastward clearly show that there were two long-track, prolific tornado producing supercells there.
Shown below is a damage survey map produced by the Memphis NWS office for the April 2 supercells in their CWA. The northern tracks were the most damaging tornadoes that passed through the communities of Marmaduke, AR; Caruthersville, MO in the Bootheel; and Newburn TN. Photos of this tornado can be found at the following website:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/events/April2006/index.php
Radar Loops:
Shown below are radar loops depicting the evolution of the Marmaduke - Caruthersville - Newburn supercell.
Any comments or discussions about this incredible severe weather outbreak are much encouraged! The plan during the "off-season" during periods of boring weather is to post more unique case studies on the blog so that we can learn from these events and improve our knowledge as storm chasers and weather enthusiasts. I hope you enjoyed the case study!
Associated Youtube Videos:
With 850 total severe wind, hail, and tornado reports, April 2 was the most active severe weather day during the 2006 season. The most significant tornadoes occurred over Northeast Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, and Western Tennessee, with a single long-track supercell producing two F3 tornadoes that severely damaged the communities of Marmaduke, AR; Caruthersville, MO; and Newbern, TN. 66 tornadoes were produced over 7 states, but most of these were weak and brief in nature in eastern IA or associated with the linear convective system that evening in IL. Sadly, 29 fatalities occurred from this outbreak, with most associated with the long-track tornadic supercell that developed in Northeast AR and tracked into western TN.
Shown below is a loop of the national radar mosaic with severe weather watches overlaid from 18z to just after 00z on April 2, 2006. As can be seen in the loop, severe thunderstorms developed very early in the day in southeast IA and central MO in a very highly sheared environment with marginal instability. Much of this convection was linear in nature, with embedded mini-supercells. As mentioned above, several weak, brief tornadoes were produced in southeast IA just east of the surface with these storms. Later in the day, strong supercell thunderstorms developed in southeast MO and northeast AR along the cold front in an environment that was also highly sheared, but also had extreme instability. Surprisingly, none of the watches issued by the SPC were of the PDS variety.
Weather Analysis Maps:
RUC analysis maps for 2300 UTC April 2, 2006 for 500 mb, 850 mb, and the surface are displayed below, which is around the time of the significant tornadoes in the central MS River Valley. At first glance, the optimal forecast target for tornadoes south be in southeast IA and northeast MO just east of the surface low along the warm front, where surface winds would be extreme backed and the nose of the LLJ would exist. Here, you would expect a NNE moving supercell to experience favorable storm-relative low-level shear with easterly winds at the surface, but as can be seen in the 850 mb map (upper right), the LLJ was likely too veered to generate a textbook hodograph for significant tornadoes...this could have been the reason why most of the tornadoes were weak and brief in nature (even though the instability was low, there was zero CIN and low LCLs in this region). I'd like to see a more southerly if not SSE-ly LLJ in this region, which was not the case. Most storm chasers on this day selected the northern mode on this day, and missed the significant tornadoes further south. If we were chasing, we may have done the same! However learning from events such as this are what prevent future busts.
As is typical with massive severe weather outbreaks, they are usually "bi-modal" in nature, which means that the severe weather reports are often focused in two main areas: one to the north in the vicinity of or just to the east of the surface low, and further south where instability is maximized but wind shear is still sufficient for tornadoes. The southern mode of this event was obviously over Northeast AR, Southeast MO, and western TN, but there are several reasons why this area might be overlooked at first glance for tornadoes. First, the cold frontal boundary is oriented more southeast to northeast further south, which might make it difficult for storms to move off the boundary and remain discrete with an advancing cold front. However, it can clearly be seen from the 500 mb map above that upper-level winds are just north of due-westerly over this region, so supercell storm motions should be easterly if not ESE-ly for a right-mover. Thus, any supercells that develop along the cold front in this region should easily move off the front, preventing any undercutting action or rapid transitions to a linear convective modes. One might also think that the LLJ is too veered in this region, with WSW-ly 850 mb flow at 40+ knots. However, this favors the development of strong tornadoes with an ESE-ly or even southeasterly moving supercell. Still though, hodographs must be diligently analyzed to see if ample storm-relative low-level shear can be attained. Another positive aspect of the southern mode is the much deeper moisture and high instability, which is usually the case.
One key development as late afternoon progressed into evening over the central MS River Valley was the backing of the surface winds over the southern mode region. Earlier in the day, surface winds were predominantly out of the southwest if not WSW just east of the cold front, likely due to strong mixing of the westerly momentum air down to the surface with afternoon heating. These veered surface winds initially limited the low-level shear and the tornado potential. Correspondingly, the supercells over this region were initially non-tornadic and rather high-based, but as the anvil shadows decreased surface heating and mixing, and as peak heating passed, the surface winds backed to a more SSW-ly direction in the storm environment, which created plenty of low-level shear for strong tornadoes.
Reports and Damage Surveys:
Ignoring the tornado reports in central IL that were associated with bow echos and embedded supercells in a linear convective system, the bi-model structure of this outbreak can be seen clearly in the tornado reports. The distinct west-to-east lines of several tornado reports in northeast AR eastward clearly show that there were two long-track, prolific tornado producing supercells there.
Shown below is a damage survey map produced by the Memphis NWS office for the April 2 supercells in their CWA. The northern tracks were the most damaging tornadoes that passed through the communities of Marmaduke, AR; Caruthersville, MO in the Bootheel; and Newburn TN. Photos of this tornado can be found at the following website:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/events/April2006/index.php
Radar Loops:
Shown below are radar loops depicting the evolution of the Marmaduke - Caruthersville - Newburn supercell.
Any comments or discussions about this incredible severe weather outbreak are much encouraged! The plan during the "off-season" during periods of boring weather is to post more unique case studies on the blog so that we can learn from these events and improve our knowledge as storm chasers and weather enthusiasts. I hope you enjoyed the case study!
Associated Youtube Videos:
Calendar
Categories
Hey!!!!! woo hoo first post! :P
Cool idea Reed! I actually didnt know about that event til now surprisingly. Now I know all i need to about it. UI like the idea of reviwing major outbreaks when its inactive. Very good idea!
In other news all Winnipeggers.......BOMBERS WIN 24-22 WITH NO TIME LEFT ON THE CLOCK DUE TO A FEILD GOAL PUNT BY TROY WESTWOOD!!!!! WOOOO HOOOOO
Sorry if nobody cares. I just gotta let out my happiness. That was the best football game I've ever seen!
Wow it seems like a while ive been on here, i hope to get back for real soon.
Great idea Reed i look forward to the upcoming posts, and this day seemed very eventful, definetly.....
How is everyone??
Very Nice Case Study,
Also Reed, I find the first half of this video very good, it has many different angles of the tornado, and the damge afterwords. If you would care to add it to the Blog, Heldi Found it :)
Cool - I saw you featured my video Reed, thanks! Looks like i may be making another wind storm video tomorrow as Seattle is under a high wind watch right now. Bring it on mother nature!
AWESOME ... just an awesome job. It's a very exciting read - I had to take breaks, similar to what happens when I'm reading a Day 2 Mod. Risk summary!!!!!!
The southern-most supercell (shown on the damage-track survey graphic) did some heavy damage near Wynne, AR. Here's a cut-and-pasted segment from the NWS damage survey on that tornado:
0731 PM TORNADO 1 S WYNNE 35.22N 90.79W
04/02/2006 F3 CROSS AR NWS STORM SURVEY
*** 5 INJ *** A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM THAT BEGAN 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORTON OR ABOUT A MILE NORTH OF THE PENROSE COMMUNITY IN WOODRUFF COUNTY AND ENDED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARKIN IN CROSS COUNTY. THIS TORNADO WENT ON TO STRIKE THE FITZGERALD CROSSING COMMUNITY SOUTH OF WYNNE AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK. A RATING OF F3 WAS GIVEN WITH
WINDS OF UP TO 200 MPH. FIVE INJURIES IN CROSS COUNTY.
- I could see the Wynne supercell and the Marmaduke supercell from my house at the SAME TIME! (Again, NO D-200 YET!!!!!!!!)
Also, notice that the wind speed estimates were rated at up to 200 MPH. As I mentioned in the previous thread, in relation to the Marmaduke tornado, if the Wynne tornado had happened this year, it would likely have been rated as an EF-5.
Here's a photo of that tornado taken by Jason Politte, a chaser from Conway, AR:
http://www.onthefront.ws/stock/wynnetornadoslide1.htm
nice picture heidi- i was chasing that day also- it was freaking insane- monster hail- im talkin 5-6 inchs in diameter- a few wedge tornados also- what a day- and i know in a few days another tornado outbreak anniversary takes place
I like case studies :D I find it interesting. Cool idea guys!
Hey everyone, how's the remainder of the Sunday going?
I said this in the last thread too, but yeah Donny, there was some extreme hail going on in Fulton & Sharp Co. AR that day. My neighbor's parents had insurrance claims for damage to their property and vehicles. -Softballs + in Cherokee Village, AR.
Another thing I wanted to mention is that the Marmaduke cell didn't become as monstrously tornadic until it got out of the Ozarks. It put down the F-1 between Imboden & Ravenden, AR, which are in the Ozark foothills, but as soon as it crossed the Black River it was on flat land. - Not to lend any credence to the myth that tornados don't occur in hilly or mountainous terrain, but I would say that the lack of dramatic topography probably helped sustain the life of that supercell. We see that kind of thing happen all the time here, where the cells really explode once they get to the flat land, or "the Delta." This phenomenon probably has a name in Meteorology ... which I don't know ... but if you think about it at all, the variables that are necessary for and that feed tornadic supercells are probably much more prominant over flat as opposed to hilly terrain (more consistency in dew points, temp, wind direction & speed, etc.).
yeah i cant think of it either heidi its at the tip of my tongue to lol- and on the 15th theres a 2 year anniversary of another tornado outbreak
11/15/05 was big in Western Kentucky & Tennessee. I remember that one well, too.
Donny, what is it you're trying to think of?? I think I missed something! :D
heidi its from your last post- the myth thing it was about what it's called- acctually i thought that hilly terrains actually increased the directional shear- i maybe wrong though
Wow cool Reed! So that's why you've been so busy.. Haha! Hey guys, if you want a sneak peak at my new site click my name ^^ Also put your mouse over one of the section's and just keep it there, the sun rises and set's! it's cool! My bike chasing partner made it in flash.
Well my 2007 chase season highlights video is done its about 20 minutes long and im currently in the process of uploading it. It takes forever
Oh forgot, Reed told me to post my video of a cold front that moved through my area yesterday at 4:30 PM. It got pretty dark. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-j8nOTJAB68
Hey Jon the Bombers may have won today but the Argos will take them next week.
DO love the idea guys, to cover stuff people may not know about during the off-season...second video would have been better without the words :P.
SIDE NOTE!!!: My Saskatchewan Roughriders just beat Stampeders 26-24...WEST FINALS next Sunday, baby!!!!! :D
oh I think i remember this i'm pretty sure there was a huge storm that had a tornado warning with it close to chicago but there was no tornado though
still i think this was it.
the most highly used phrase these days "It's warm for this time of year".
Question: Are most people into this site going through no severe weather withdrawls.....?
Correction: Are most people into this site going through severe weather withdrawls.....?
While I was not chasing this event I was nowcasting for Randy... he got the tornado near Delaplaine Arkansas and finally lost it due to bad road network.
I remember looking at 850mb winds before the event really unfolded and although winds were not backed yet... as soon as storms started going up, winds started to back thus increasing tornadic potential.
Reed, would be very interesting to see if we can do something on the Greensburg event?!?!?!?
Andy :) ... OF COURSE!!!!!!!
That's what makes blog entries like this one so fantastic.
:D
Maybe we'll have a few blips on the radar between now & next March, though, but the chance of a November outbreak is looking pretty slim right now. It's not out of the realm of possibilities to have a December event or even one in January, so maybe all this "warmer than usual" stuff will eventually translate into an unusual Winter severe event???
I'd say sometime this week will be nice for an outbreak in the plains..Tuesday or Wednesday could be the best. We'll have to find out!
That would definitely have been a difficult task to keep up with the Marmaduke storm east of Delaplaine, since from there it went on toward Lafe & of course eventually to Marmaduke & beyond, and there isn't a true east-west road there. The hwys start running mostly northeast-southwest in that area ... the only good road would have been east-west 412, and that would have been about 10-15 miles south of the storm. He'd have had to have been well ahead of it on 412 and then tried to intersect at Marmaduke, of all places, on HWY 49. That would not have been a good scene. :-/
Hey Lanny...A may 4 case study is definitely pending. It would probably take all day to produce that one! I thought one of guys would have been chasing out there that day.
Heidi: The hilly vs. flat terrain (surface roughness) is a VERY interesting topic. A friend of mine, Don G, who posts on here every now and then...is an expert on the role of low-level shear on distinguishing between non-tor and sig-tor supercells...he told me about a paper concerning a tornadic supercell in New England where mountains terrain actually aided in the production of a strong tornado, by helping to align the low-level shear vector in an optimal direction. The storm produced a sig tornado over the mountains, and it lifted as the storm moved over the valleys! I'll talk to Don and try to hunt down the paper...or maybe he'll post on here???
Thanks for the comments/discussion above! This is exactly the intent of including case studies! Not only to help us get through supercell withdrawal!
Nice picture Heidi.
I'm very busy at the moment :-(.
@Heidi: Cors posted the video of the hailstorm in Bogota (Columbia). Another severe thunderstorm took place there one day after this giant hailstorm (if I understand it correctly): http://youtube.com/watch?v=ZmfpJ167nuU .
Pretty strange.
--
Nice case study. Is it possible, to make the graphics be zoomable, or are they only available in this size?
Concerning case studies, if found an analysis of storm Kyrill in the English language:
http://www.wetteran.de/analysen/kyrill_english.html
Maybe anyone is interested in it, I think it is pretty interesting.
Reed,
The storm you are referring to tornadoed over the Hudson River Valley and lifted when it moved over the Taconic Range. Shortly thereafter the storm dropped another hose over the Housatonic River Valley, which also lifted when the storm encountered higher terrain in the Berkshire Mountains. Definitely an interesting case!
The paper examining it in detail is available here, but can only be accessed if your computer is on a .edu or .org domain:
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=res-loc&uri=urn%3Aap%3Apdf%3Adoi%3A10.1175%2FWAF957.1
I think this is a great idea. I'm sure we are all suffering from withdrawl syndrome's due to no activity. The storm scenario seems quite interesting since it wasn't really suposed to support long lived tonado's.
Accord to EC there was lightning strikes in southern Ontario today. Where i dont know and it was to foggy to see anything Anyways here is the picture.
http://i239.photobucket.com/albums/ff207/ontariostormchaser/canadian_ltng.png
Thanks for the link, Don.
The abstract is available to view online, but it appears that you have to either be an AMS Jorunal subscriber or purchase the article in order to view it in its entirety. But, if I'm understanding you correctly, you're saying that it can also be viewed with a .edu or .org domain, so I could just use a library computer at a local community college here and see if that works. It'd be well worth it, as this is a topic that has always interested me, especially given that I grew up in a "rough terrain" area.
I am very interested in seeing a historical "tornado track map" for the state of Arkansas, or at least for northeast Arkansas. I know that such a thing exists because I have seen it online one other time, but I want to take a look at it again, this time much more closely, and compare it to the DeLorme topographical map. I think it would be, if nothing else, fascinating to compare historical tornadic "trends" to local topography, and see what features may enhance or inhibit tornadogenesis, especially when compared to available archived met. data. I'd like specifically to explore a phenomenon we've experienced since we've lived here, one which locals profess to be the norm, which is that the majority of storms travel along what I can only describe as two topographic "avenues," which run generally west-to-east. One of these is to our north, in the form of the Ozark Plateau - the other is the White River Valley, to our south. I want to see how often storms have actually produced tornados in and/or along those areas as opposed to places in between, if for no other reason than to confirm or dispel the local folk-wisdom." ;)
Thanks, too, Volker for the additional video from Bogota. I'll go check that one out now!
Hey guys how is everyone??
went outearlier and got some pictures for some reason our city went mad with the bigining of storms, we got a few good looking cumulous clouds which me and my bro just sat and watch grow, we were like oooohhhh lol
i love taking pictures of storms tim- getting pretty good at it to- im just kinda po'd about a signifanct weather alert that was stating nickle sized hail is expected but there was no severe t-storm warning on it- last time i checked nickle sized hail was severe t-storm criteria
Yeh i love it aswell Donny, but i hav to say im pretty rubbush at it lol but hopefully i can learn as i go on...
Really thats severe weather criterea lol :P
dont worry tim im sure your ability will get better- it just takes time- yeah its severe criteria lol- but it just saddens me you know- i have see this way to many times this year- where max hail was at 4 inchs in diameter and no warnings- strong rotation within a t-storm with a later confirmed tornado- no tornado warning-but this has got to stop- i thought the purpose of having storm chasers/spotters was to get ground truth and help advance lead time and saves lives
Oh yeh Donny but sorry if im speaking out of place here but spotters and chasers cant be everywhere, people like Reed and Joel do a fantastic job already, they show ametuers like us what it is like to be close up to a tornado and get some fantastic fotage, and im sure they collect valuable data from storms to help warnings/watches, you cant expect them to be at EVERY one if you know what i mean, and they save a lot of lives every year im sure, form a lot of Reeds videos i have heard him say on them " call it in " when they spot good rotation or even when it is on the ground, they cant do much more than the fantastic job they all do already.....
Hey ive always said that people call us crazy and idoits but when it comes down to it we saves lives because we're out there.
Matt.....we will see wat happens next Sunday. It should be an interesting game.
Ya i will be a good game i personaly dont care who wins not a huge CFL fan more an NFL fan
Donny, you didn't mention it before, and I meant to ask - what part of the country are you from?
ohh i know they can't be everywhere tim and i have seen reed and joels films- awesome- no other way to describe it
Yeh Deffinetly Donny, they do a great job, anyway guys im out for a while and will be back later, have a good one!!
So what kind of camera should i be looking for, for lightning shots and photographing storms...maybe someone can link and example.
Thanks :)
Severe winds in B.C, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba for tonight and Tuesday
I just found another video of the damage from this event. It's from Dyer & Gibson Co. TN, which is where all but a few of the deaths occurred
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGT3fibU7WA
Man i got some isolated thunderstorms today. Well not me but parts on Southern Ontario had reports of lightning strikes in the area.
i am in arkansas tim what part are you from
Tim is from England Mike.
Mike - I think that probably the first thing you should do is decide on how much $$$$ you want to spend. I mean, as I said earlier, you can get a decent digital camera with limited video capability for less than $400, certainly, but really, the possibilities are endless. It's hard to just say, "Here's the camera for you" because there are many examples of cameras that work well for storm photography ... all of which vary in price and performance capability.
I will say, though, that if you're interested in getting into lightning photography, you're probably going to want to do a little bit of research - to study up first - and/or buy a book, or at least check out articles in photography magazines ... I've only done lightning photography one time so far, and at this point it as a semi-complicated, two-person ordeal!! :D You would more than likely need extras, like a good tripod and a good mechanical release, in addition to the camera itself.
If you opted for a digital camera/video combo, you could always take video at night and then capture stills of lightning from that. The quality wouldn't be the same, but it is a lot easier.
Donny, you're an Arkansan too? What part of the state? I'm in north-central.
Here's yet another video from the Dyer Co. TN tornado on 4/2/06. It's silent but it pretty freaky ... especially when you read the comments.
Hey everyone! How's the weather out there? It's chillier here at 52 degrees, but the wind isn't making things very nice. And, it's drier than a proverbial bone.
Hey AJ not much.
Some parts of Southern Ontario got some isolated thunderstorms but not me and it was way to foggy to see anything. And its currently 50F right now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAFk7j7Vzqc&NR=1
duh.
Sure am heidi- i am in jacksonville- roughly 2 miles east of Little Rock AFB.
Hey Matt. It looks like a teeny part of NW Kansas had frost this morning, in the higher elevations. Eastern Colorado got a little bit too... sometimes, it's hard to tell fall and winter apart. lol.
Heidi, you're gonna like my Christmas vakay plans. It involves a cross-country trip, going thru your state. ;) More details later.
Hey guys im back....
Yeh Donny matt is right im from England, nice to meet you....
pleasures all mine tim
sos guys i got to shoot be back on tomorrow cause once again the time difference has got in the way...kdjbcwjjk
se ya donny
Have a good one see ya!!
See ya Tim! Hey Donny, the name's AJ, and I live a little further north and west from you, in Southwest Kansas. How's it going?
its going good aj hows it going in southwest kansas- i bet your lookin forward to the dry-line setting up this spring eh
AAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION!!!! A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-------------------------------------------
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CST MON NOV 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...FAR SERN KS AND NERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122202Z - 130030Z
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SMALL/SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS LEAD TO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS MO AND
AR...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL WARMING IN ITS WAKE. 18Z LMN SOUNDING
SHOWED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WITH WARMING
NOTED ABOVE 500 MB. GIVEN WARM SECTOR CAPPING...STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND JUST N OF COLD FRONT WHERE LIFT WILL LOCALLY
OVERCOME CAP. SOME MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WITH EWD
EXTENT...THUS...A STORM OR TWO COULD YIELD SMALL HAIL OVER SWRN MO
ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR LONG LIVED NOR SEVERE STORMS.
..JEWELL.. 11/12/2007
Ya a nothing meso dicussion but still its a meso discussion
If their is nothing to dicuss, why is their a discussion?
Hmmmmm......
thats a good question Strike
My thoughts exactly Strike. lol. No point in it is there...?
Donny, I'm always ready for the dryline set-up! haha. Arkansas gets it's share of severe every now and then though, so don't feel left out ;)
Ya well send some of that severe weather up here.
if only it was that easy aj- theres been tornado warned storms in faulkner county- move into my county- still has lots of rotation- only be warned for a severe t-storm in pulaski- and then be tornado warned in lonoke county- and then sometimes we get storms that fire up in saline county be warned for a severe t-storm and then no warning for pulaski county- maintains its streghth though- and then be tornado warned in white county- so its almost like it doesnt want to storm here- but theres been times where we had a few large limbs downed- and i have some nice pictures of storms comming into my neighborhood- there were 2 shelf clouds- both the same but at different locations- and then a wall-cloud- and some nice sky-color in the clouds and you can almost assume it was rotating-
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/interestingcloud-1.jpg
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/SkyColor1.jpg
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/SkyColor2.jpg
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/Structure1.jpg
http://i215.photobucket.com/albums/cc106/Tornadomaster22/Structure2.jpg
Hey everyone! I haven't been here in several weeks. How's everyone doing?
Happy Veterans Day everyone!! How's it going here??
Another hard day here!! =( Almost 50 and sunny today!! =( no sign of more snow yet!! I'll have to sit down and read all the previous posts!! This was a great topic Reed!! Makes me wish I drove to Northwood for you guys!! I know I keep saying that!! hehe We'll get that one back!!
Yeah I can remebere that.... See all that blue stuff? those are wind reports I had 70MPH!
Reed its interesting you did a case study on this outbreak, being as this is one of my most memorable/freaky chases.
I wasnt planning on chasing that day, but as the action came to me, i quickly got on the road to atleast do ssome spotting. I was on the cell that affected Northern Peoria County, Woodford County, and then produced in Northern Mclean, and South Central Livingston County.
I say this was freaky, because as i was punching the core of one storm trying to get into the hook/dry slot of the main storm, over the Radio, we heard there was a tornado on the ground Just to our Wnw, and that it was quickly becoming rain wrapped and invisible. Thid made me very weary, and quite frankly scared. We stopped for a minute, and then it began to hail up to golfball-baseball sized...So we quickly tried to get out of there. Although we never had visual confirmation on a tornado, i believe the tornado passed within a mile to the south of our position.
This was one of my most memorable chases, not because of the weather or anything like that, but because of the fact that i put 550+ miles on my car that night, and on my way home at 3:30 in the morning, less than 4 miles from my house, i hit a deer. Luckily i made it home, and my insurance covered ALL of my damage.
Here is a link to the storm reports were the blue line is were i live
C:\Documents and Settings\Caleb\My Documents\My Pictures\02apr06.png
Hey Conner!! Yeah it's been a while!! How ya been??
Hey Ben!! Damn them deer anyhow!! hehe
Hey Donny, those are some cool pics. When did you take those? We haven't had a storm like that up here in Izard Co. since ... well ... April, maybe???
Ben, that was surely a crazy day. Too bad you didn't get to see the tornado - that would have made for an even more awesome story.
Caleb, you gotta go to photobucket.com (or some other hosting place) and upload that stuff, *then* post the direct link! :P
Heidi Maby i don't wanna LOL JK JK i did find some video of the 10-18-07 storms I actully watch both channeles when it happend! IT WAS AWSOME MAN AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH HHJGHGBJHGYHVGYBHVG on part nine i fell asleep that night i was not on cuse to worried about the house i use to live in
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5kEzZflOU4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGwTf3Tzuv8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnwqyFIZi50
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcTas-7oGNI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ilXS9OUtKA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTNOalAAlAs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LG13WZy-wl0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vv-v2ZB8mc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVEJIZd62yo
Ah, I know what you mean Donny. It takes patience, which I don't always have. lol. And cool pics btw.
Anything interesting out there Brady or Heidi?
thanks heidi- the one that looked liek a wall cloud was takin earlier this summer- and the the other 4 was a few weeks back- i cant remember the exact date though- ohh and heidi- looking at the stupid gfs- it shows snow in arkansas in a few weeks- i mean its just going crazy- maybe you'll get a good t-storm when the front gets its act together tommorow and wednesday- and don't be surprised even if some of the storms became borderline severe up there
Wow!! Nice pics Donny!! Great job!! I like the structure!!
thanks heidi- the one that looked liek a wall cloud was takin earlier this summer- and the the other 4 was a few weeks back- i cant remember the exact date though- ohh and heidi- looking at the stupid gfs- it shows snow in arkansas in a few weeks- i mean its just going crazy- maybe you'll get a good t-storm when the front gets its act together tommorow and wednesday- and don't be surprised even if some of the storms became borderline severe up there
Just trying to catch up on the blog AJ!! How's life in the GCK??
YO PEOPLE LOL DID ANYONE WATCH THOSE VIDS UP THERE?????????
Whoa Caleb, that is a LOT of videos you've found!!!! =-O
Donny - I was wondering if any of your pics were from the storms back a few weeks ago. There were a few storms down around your area that were tornado warned for a good while (I think it was Lonoke & Prairie Co) that night. (Oct. 17th - the night before the big event in Kentucky that Caleb's talkin about.)
AJ, it's raining leaves here. It's awesome - you can just stand outside and listen to them falling. It's actually pretty major. I think I am going to issue a PDS leaf warning.
lol. Nice Heidi. I bet it's exciting... ;) Brady, life is swell in the GCK, except for a certain fact that colder weather is hard on carbureted vehicles (read: my "new" vehicle). I got another truck! My dad became the owner of the little red Dodge. I have a GMC now.
And yes, Caleb, we saw the videos. Really cool!
thanks brady there all from my cell phone camera since i dont have a regualar digital camera-
as far as the tornado warnings were concerned the pictures no they weren't i cant remember when i took all but them - but they came close- i saw them rotating on radar- it looked loke it was heading right torwards pulaski and there was only a severe t-storm warning on it- and still was rotating and told mom- get in the shelter- next thing i know tornado warning was issued- like i said it came close but no cigar
Yeah, I know what you mean Donny. It happens here ALOT. lol. It'll rotate, look plenty mean and nasty, but only look good, and stay svr. warned. Oh well... it all comes back to patience, and having it. lol.
yeah i know aj- i know that my friends that live in wetern KY- there in a rural area, don't have tornado sireens- no noaa weather radio- and when i see them just slightly rotate i call em up- and tell them ya know i see a tornadic couplet
Yeah. I lived in the country when I was really little... it was nice, having big open skies, but not so nice not having radio reception for when we needed it, like when there was a tornado warning. lol. I learned long ago that a good chaser uses their eyes more than their computer.
Hey Brady! I've been pretty good. Turned 16 yesterday!!
I guess we still haven't heard from Joe Surfer?
i bet it sucks aj- my last chase was april 2nd last year cause of complications i have-i no longer can go out- so i watch my radar- but i have a few spies that go to my house- we look at data-posistion them- and i call em and tell me what they see visually and i relay that info to my friends
Yeah, Joe hasn't turned up in awhile... hmm... it's a mystery.
And I should rephrase that: good chasers use their instincts and senses along with their equipment.
Hmm... it got quiet... see ya'll later! Gnite!
major wind event for western canada!
Max surface wind(from EC) is 50-70 knots
Thats 95-130km/h(60-90mph)
I don't know how much of that amounts to in ground winds, from friction, topography,mixing.
Here's what I'm dealing with....
Wind warning for: City of Regina
Issued at 9:56 PM CST MONDAY 12 NOVEMBER 2007
WIND GUSTS IN THE 80 TO 100 KM/H RANGE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 70 KM/H ON TUESDAY.
AN SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING ALBERTA IS FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE PROVINCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS...GUSTING FROM 70 TO 100 KM/H...WILL DEVELOP. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS...AS STRONG AS 70 KM/H...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST, BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY OVER MUCH OF THE PROVINCE.
That's amazing SKgirl! If you get any pictures please share them with us!
I heard they had a significant snowfall in the mountains of BC.
Q: how fast would I burn gas going the equivalent of 180km/h in a half ton pickup.?
100kmh against a 80kmh wind.
Yes I have to drive in the worst of the wind against the wind. Thankfully only for about 17km
For my area 60-80kmh tonight and 60-90 tomorrow
We might see the potential of up to a 110kmh gust or two.
I can already hear the howling outside as post
Yah, very strong winds up here in alberta
200000 people loose power in BC from wind storm. Link to an article below.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=926a9f2c-9198-48bd-aadb-cddabd08f97e&k=16639
first i would like to say theres some nice t-storms brewing in western tenn. witha severe warning on it- pretty decent lil storm- and second i wanted to think reed for inviting me to this sight- y'all rock
Reed, as you and I both know....after the "anvils" started to really tilt, that helped to back the winds a little, which in turn increased the tornadic potential. I think thats what I was trying to say in my last post. Randy had winds at the basement near Delaplaine from the SW nearing 35kts...insane stuff.
Heidy....Yes it was very tough for Randy to keep up with the storm. Infact I believe he was eventually on hwy 49 and lost if from there. Was a crazy day.
In forcasting the event, I orignally forcasted the "northern" end. and of course there was a few tornadoes up there however what I did not take into account was the possible backing winds after conditions "primed" a little. I just did not think it would happen or happen at that time. I could see something going up after it started to cool so to speak which in effect is what happened after the anvils tilted.
Reed, the reason I asked about the May 4 event is because there still is not a real synopsis out yet....I know John Davies put one out and although it is good, it does not go into detail about everything. As you know the cold pool from your storm probably created the storm I was on (Greensburg)....and I would love to "talk" about that.
Lanny
I will try to Reed, or at least take some video clips for you of the wind speeds...the wind warning has been continued for all of today..
Wind report in millet, alberta
*Wind 60 gusing to 100km
*fences blown down
*my moms garage has colapsed( rear wall ripped out)
no car inside
*boards are being ripped of fences
*branches down
*some trees missing from the horizon
*looks like part of millet school roof is damaged but hard to tell from moonen hights
I will see how bad when i go to get lunch
I got photos and video of the windstorm
reed look out for weather in kansas city