News DetailWeekend tornadoes possible?
Posted At: October 9, 2007 @ 10:57 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
While it may be pointless to speculate this far in advance, the GFS has been consistent in predicting a nice trough to swing through the Southern Plains this weekend, bringing the potential for incredible shear on Saturday and Sunday. In fact, this morning's GFS run for Saturday looks very similar to April 21, 2007, when the TX Panhandle experienced a major tornado outbreak. If this model run verifies, which it very likely won't, the only limiting factor will be moisture -- but we thought that would also be a problem on April 21! Shown below are the 500 mb and 850 mb GFS forecasts for Saturday and Sunday.
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Don't wanna be picky, but the pics say sunday and monday.
That means SAT and SUN. Its confusing, it is just how Zulu time is. Since it is centered on Greenwich, England. We are like 6 times zones behind so the 00z Mon is actually Sunday evening.
It is a very nice setup, I wish it wasn't the weekend though.
Fake.
Well i wanted to wait for a new post to show off the pictures I've taken this year. I would have had some pictures of tornado's around May 3rd by Nickerson, KS but my camera wouldn't work. Hope you enjoy them :)
Sure hope the models hold out for this weekend. Reed if they do are you going to chase also?
Whoa Monty, nice collection of stuff from this year! It looks like you came pretty close to having a real tornado there on a couple of occasions! Maybe this weekend will work out for a lot of us?? Something HAS to happen sometime this fall. I am not particularly fond of Thanksgiving/Christmas-time severe events. Just seems wrong!
Thanks for sharing the pictures Monty...We were chasing on May 23 as well down in the TX Panhandle. Tough storms to chase since they were so HP.
We'll definitely be chasing this weekend if it looks good.
hey guys what up??
cool Reed glad to hear you will be chasing this weekend if it gets good :D
The Canuck GEM model is saying the folks in SD/NE might get touched on Saturday night by the warm front. The cold(cool?) front doesn't look very strong for NE,KS,OK on Sunday so far.
Nice collection of photos Monty M, thanks for sharing :)
great pictures Monty
Thanks Wes. Forgot all about that.
Ya Reed the SPC has something for D5-D6 on there 4-8 day outlook. Which is saturday and sunday.
I am gay
hey guys....
ive just counted the votes on what should be the new logo for my site and ive posted a new blog showing which ine it is....
have a look if you want, click my name for the link ^^
Nice pictures Monty. We had a huge Hail storm not too long ago. It was horrible, and totaled out all my neighbors cars. I was lucky that I parked our car right up next to the house, and escaped damage. I was told by a few people that a tornado landed in town, and even had someone say the watched it form. Not sure if it was 100% accurate though.
Hey Everyone!!! I just got home from school and was checking the latest model runs... Never underestimate the GFS!!! A tornado outbreak this weekend sounds great!
After weeks of me complaining how hot and unusuall the weather was, Fall has FINALLY arrived and looks like its here to stay too!!
Another one of those spammers... :(
hey Zack....you ok?
lol how can you lookforward to the cold lol :P
Hey guys! What's up? I like the sound of a weekend storm, with possible tornadoes :D
Yeah, fall is finally here! I like it now, because it's the perfect temperature to get out the ATV's again, and there's all sorts of stuff in town to write about for the paper. Good times ;)
Great pics Monte!
I'm just perfect Tim..lol.
Oh Tim you have to live in oklahoma to understand!! I just love the cold thats all.
Whats up AJ, you enjoying fall as well?
good glad to hear it Zack lol and ok, will have to put that to the test someday lol
Hey AJ how are ya?
Oh and by the way Tim, thats a nice site you have. I look forward to your blog and stuff.
Thanks Zack :D im sure me and AJ will be keeping it up to date lol
Man, the stupid NWS page is down right now!
urg!!!!!!!!!!
I'm alright guys. Home from school, finally. It'll be another night of homework, dangit. :( Oh well.
And yeah, I'll try to do my part on the site. It's pretty kickass now :D lol
Is there anything I can do to help??? I have some great ideas myself....
Yeah me too AJ... I have Algebra 1 and science!!!
askfjdkhjaskdhk
Geez AJ you got home this late?
lol well think of it... work for the dream of being a meteorologist if that is what you want to be :D
Also AJ....me and my dad spent some money on the site today, the URL will be changing soon hopefully to severeweatherworld.co.uk, im hoping to get it sorted tomorrow :D
Well Caleb Its later over where you live..
So is it a yes maybe no maybe so???
yeh sure you can help zack, if there is anything you want to post on there then send me or AJ an e-mail and we can get it on im sure, and yeh if you have any ideas please say :D....
ill create a new page called bloogers pictures lol :D.... would that be ok with you AJ? I wont do anything without talking it through lol
Well what time is it at AJ's
I had some errands to run before I came home, so I guess those account to me being late. I have Algebra 2 and Honor's English to work on... I'll be needing caffiene later ;)
Cool Tim. I"ll be looking out for it!
Thanks Tim!!!!
Woa.... 67 degrees for a high on Thursday....
Right now, it's 5:02 at my house. It's significantly later at Tim's I think. hehe.
Sure Tim, that'd be great. It's your site, I'll go along with whatever you wanna do.
Honors English? I HATE English... Especially the shakespear crap!
cool thanks AJ....ive got a little while before my eyes start to weld shut for the night lol i will start it now....
Zack my e-mail is on the site send me some pics and vids and if you have any ideas just go onto the blog lol would be nice to get some people on there now lol
Hey guys how it going today????
lol AJ i need help with it and with you helping with the site i will always ask you if thats a good idea or not, cause it your site aswell now lol
haha. Ok, that's cool. I'm here for suggestions ;)
Thank goodness we don't have to study Shakespeare, cause I hate that! We're just writing papers about general stuff that isn't really important. Oh well, I'll be a suck up for now. lol
Trust me AJ, you'll be learning about him soon enough.
Well, last year we read Romeo and Juliet, to which I wanted to shoot myself. lol After that it was some Ray Bradbury, and the movie Good Night and Good Luck. My teacher had some big thing about cencorship in journalism... yeah, pretty weird. lol
Man how many people u got of that site Tim. U got Brady, AJ, yourself your brother and now zack.
Im going solo on this one. And plan to stay that way. Until i find a storm chaser in my area somewhere to help me out.
And i think i smell burgers for dinner so im out for a bit but illl be back soon.
I'm gonna DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I just found out we are starting shakspear next semester!! AAAAAHHH asljsdkhdhjklah
Matt You should check Tim's site out.. I think its neat!
hahaha. Zack, I'm sorry to hear that... kinda. lol.
Yes, check out the site please! We worked hard on it, so go visit it! You know you wanna... ;)
Well I gotta go unfortunately... Got things to do.
talk to you guys later!
See ya Zack, have a good one!
Laters Zack!
Yeah, I best be getting off also... got some work to do. See ya!
ya guys i saw the site and ya i must say u guys are going a great job on it. so the hard work is paying off.
And Tim dont think i was making fun of u about having so many people help u out i think its great that u can get that much support from your friends. Well internet friends but i think its great,
Gotta go do my boring stupid homework AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH vbfhvbfrbfhfbh!!@@##$$$%%%^^^&&**())$gecvnfvgbfyguchvbnrD@@@@%R(D$TI(%DT@(TD%(%($
not at all Matt lol no dont worry lol
see ya aswell AJ!
anyway lol looks as if everyone is going now lol so i had best hit the sack see ya guys!!
Ya cya ya Timim going to watch the Leafs game so im out for the night.
Wow...the change in temperature behind the cold front is amazing...-14 degrees from yesterday to today(94 yesterday to 80 today, thats my own weatherstation) and Forecast high tomorrow of only 56!!!!
I dont think we'll be warming up more than 75degrees the rest of year.
Thats how it went hear...what did the cold front do for anyone else...drastic changes?
Fairly drastic in Kansas Ben. Mid-80's one day, 50's the next. Hopefully, it stays constant soon!
Hey all!! I'm home from another hard days work!! uuuuuuhhhh!! How's things here!! Sorry I spaced voting last nite and didn't get the chance to get to today!! I liked the first one!! It seemed to fit the name the best!! hehe!!
And apparently I'm not the only one who thought that too!! I just noticed now The logo!! I win!! hehe That was the one I liked best!! I thought they were all good!!
Hey Matt.. If ya need anything for your site!! Just ask dude!!
Sorry for loading the blog up, but I forgot to mention Duluth had some flurries today!! I didn't see em, but quite a few people did!! hehe Brrrr Hasn't passed 40 all day!!
Thats crazy Brady.
You can keep the 40 degree weather, i dont want it quite yet. Temperatures here are forecast to rise a slowly, 66 by friday i believe.
Hey Tim...the site is coming along great! Thanks for the link to TV.net...once we get a link page up and running we'll be sure to include yours on there.
Sounds like lake effect season is not that far off Brady...I guess you need northeasterly flow up there to get pounded.
Norman, this is Duluth!! We have flurries, repeat, we have flurries, over!!
yes Reed!! I love the Noreasters!! Sunday night! NOAA radio was saying " for the open waters of western lake superior. Tonight blah blah waves 4-6ft building to 8-11ft!!" I didn't go see em, but DAMN!!
Brady, my husband has just asked, "Hey, did we ever find Surfer Joe?" :D Can ya try him again tonight? Maybe he was watching Monday Night Football in the pub last night??
and FLURRIES?!?!!!! AAAAAAAAA!!!!
Oh, I bet Joe is happy with his mug and a game somewhere ;)
Hey guys, how's it going?
Nice line of storms coming throught in about an hour or two here with that front you guys are talking about....im gonna try and get some good lightning shots...biggest thing theyre saying with these is frequent lightning...supposed to be 59 here in 2 days...and it was almost 90 today...HERE COMES WINTER LOL...and a possible coastal storm later this week....i'm in south jersey by the way...
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Opps
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/3032/pa090003wm3.jpg
Some Massive leaves this year!!
these ones are from a tree at my moms place. the tree grew 6 feet taller and 8 feet wider this year
alsdkjfsdhkfhskld!! Some large leaves you got there! I'd put those in a church Bible and save em! ;) I have pine trees, so pine cones get on my nerves after picking up so many. lol
I bet Reed is going to like the leaf photos! :D Looks like Hybrid Poplar to me, and they do grow INCREDIBLY fast! My folks had two of them in our yard so I know exactly what you mean!
OOOhh!1!!! I'm so putting a link to tv.net on my site now that reed said that!!! :) Remember Reed. If you want to know anything that goes on in canada just check my site!
So Brady...50$ if I get first snow photo huh? Sure I'm in!! Even if I can't use it here in canada I'll keep it for a memory of ya!
No Kenny!! I meant lets start a betting pool for who gets the first snow!!! I'm putting a $50 down that says you!! or me!! hehe
I"ll put a $5 on Kenny... lol. I"ll put another $5 on the bet that it won't snow here in Kansas until January, and it won't be much ;)
The tree shocked me by growing a 15foot top in a single year and produced a leaf the size of a pizza.
Maybe it is the fact that the tree grows on a mineral rich spring.
other trees in the yard have the same unreal growth.
A griffin poplar is growing so fast it will outgrow the big tree in a few more years
An elm tree that took 10 years to take roof had just took off and grew by 3 feet this year alone(but is being swallowed by the nearby trees).
various willows are now 30 feet tall in 10 years
I want a huge tree in my yard... a nice shady maple would suffice... ;)
I"m out for the nite guys! Talk to ya'll later!
Peace!
Alright Reed, I put a link to tv.net on my site. I was going to upload my photos on my site for fall but it's being gay so I'll wait.
Oh ok Brady and AJ, you better give me that 25$ now because it already snowed here last week around noon for a couple minutes!
I got Joe's Voice mail again!! It's not even his voice!! Just a at the tone....
I'll take that $50, thanks
Been snowed on twice already :)
Mike do you have any leaves left up there after today?
Not much left down here now.
Go away wind!
PB you don't count!!! Only I do!! And how come your saying go away wind??!? I love how windy it is right now in edmonton.
Hehe!! This wind SUX!! It's coming right from you Canucks at 22mph!!! BRRRRR!!! I'm freezing my nips off!!
Brady 22mph is nothing! try 35-50 km/h! I even was outside in a t-shirt filming it! I was so cold, I was shaking the camera!
Why didn't have on the Carhartt?? Everyone in town has a Carhartt jacket!! lol
That's really weird about Joe...maybe he switched phone/internet providers or something.
Thanks for the link Kenny!
CarrHartt? wtf is that? I don't think people in canada wear cars as hats...
CarrHartt? wtf is that? I don't think people in canada wear cars as hats...
Np Reed, Oops about double post. Hey Reed, I'll be uploading some pictures of the leaves in a river valley I took today! Just a sec.
You should be thankful for all that cold air, after all if we didn't supply you with it, you wouldn't have as spectacular thunderstorms as you do.
I forgot!! canadians have different product lines!! Carhartt makes jackets n stuff!!
I don't know Reed!! We need to put an APB out for him!! I don't like how this is shaping up!! =(
Ok well should I see if Reed will put my pictures on the blog or just upload em here? I tihnk there pretty nice but I don't know...
Lets see some Kenny!! It would be nice to see the first snows of the season!!
Brady lol...It's not snow...It's just leaf's and trees and stuff...Not that great! Haha
Post em anyway!! Like this one^^?? I took it driving 65mph!!
...:( Dam I have a problem guys...My bike chasing buddies moving...:( Now I don't have anyone to chase with and I'll be solo for the rest of the year including the summer..It's gunna be really hard chasing alone.
I know me being positive is probably a bad thing but Sunday looks incredible. The cape is low but the lapse rates are really good, the winds are as textbook for a tornado outbreak as they can be. Unfortunately setups usually hit their peak in the models then go down, hopefully this one stays they same.
Here is an interesting link for anyone interested in probabilities of tors during a certain time of year:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/loops.html
I was looking at some forecast soundings for Sunday across western OK with the GFS using Storm Machince Forecast Soundings and it produced some nice numbers. Lawton returned a helicity of 450, a SWEAT of 460, but only had a CAPE of 500. It is just good to see it even hint at helicity of over 400 that is in the warm sector.
If there is anything to chase this weekend I may be without GPS though. I dont know if I can handle using maps, so old school... like a year ago for me.
well the forecast has held for one day...just 4 more to go! haha
Ya i like Kenny's chances of getting snow first then Brady and then maybe me.
The models just keep looking better!!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAdkfjskodoksko.
This one better verify! Someone's due!
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_ATMOS_CAPE_120HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_0-1KM_EHI_120HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_0-1KM_SRH_120HR.gif
Are you guys talking about lasting snow, or just flurries? Because its almost a guarantee that Winnipeg gets the first lasting snow of the year. And I'm in for $50 canadian. For you down south, that's $50.89 usd. HAHA!
Just kidding of course.
Just wanted to share some photos I took from this year. I just bought a $120 ticket to the Tech v. A&M game and then I saw the convective outlook for the weekend! Well, enjoy the pics.
we had one by are house about seven sirens whent off in saginaw as far as i now
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