News DetailTornado Warnings south of Amarillo Tonight -- Tomorrow still looks like a major tornado outbreak!
Posted At: October 17, 2007 @ 12:31 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Tornadic supercells have developed in the Texas Panhandle and are currently (~12:30 am CDT) passing just to the south of Amarillo, TX with tornado warnings in effect. It is difficult to tell if these cells are surface-based, or if they are slightly elevated in nature. If surface-based, the strong low-level jet is generating favorable low-level shear for tornadoes tonight as these storms track northeastward. Shown below is a loop of these supercells from over the last few hours:
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The 00z models tonight look slightly different from the previous runs. The WRF is showing a slightly slower system, and a much more pronounced dryline bulge across Oklahoma (can be seen clearly in the CAPE and 0-1 km helicity maps below). The 850 mb winds are also more backed across Oklahoma than in previous runs, which is creating a more favorable hodograph further south. Based on the WRF, we're currently targeting just northwest of OKC where the north side of the bulge is forecast to be by late afternoon.
Shown below are four WRF forecast hodographs for 00z tomorrow evening, when the dryline is near the I-35 corridor. While these locations are slighly east of the boundary, they are fairly representative of storm environments. The estimated storm motion of a right-moving supercell is plotted with a red dot. The most favorable low-level wind profiles for tornadoes are further north, as indicated by the hodographs for Wichita and Bartlesville, while the hodograph for Ardmore, OK is less favorable, because the storm motion vector makes a less than 90 deg angle with the surface to 1 km wind shear vector relative to the surface point (Giuliano and Esterheld, pers. comm.). The Ponca City, OK hodograph, which is closer to the dryline than the other two northern stations, also looks very favorable for strong tornadoes, with a fairly long low-level shear vector, and a ~90 angle between the low-level shear vector and the storm motion vector. Storm motions are also very manageable further north (~30-35 knots). In summary, the hodographs for the storm environments over north-central and south-central KS look very favorable for strong, damaging tornadoes tomorrow.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for the entire region, including further east for the Ozark Mountain Region for tornadoes overnight as the supercells move east with the intensifying low-level jet. Stay tuned for continuous updates...we'll have the tracker up and running the entire time, as it looks like these tornadoes will occur over a good data coverage area.
I can still take a flight to okc but i will be landing around 5pm hmmm....
SUHWEET!!! CAN I GET A HOORAH!?!!?
No Cors!! Fly to DFW and pick me up on your way to Oklahoma! It's only an hour or two (depending on traffic)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
By the way, its nice to have you back. We were getting concerned when we hadn't heard from you since Dean!
Now if we could only find Joe...
lol connor, you know where im coming from ;)
lol hint (click name)
I'm waiting on that 1 day outlook before I go to bed...
Nice Cors :)
it's true we drown em in that shit...
Damn! Looks like this one decided to screw me and head slightly east based on the new One Day Outlook.
I guess I'll just have to wait for that "potent system" sunday and monday :(
lol sy bout the movie bs but, hehehe look at sam l's face while he's listening...I mean he is reallly digging it. lol
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK IS OUT!!!!!!!!!!!
--A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A THREAT OF STRONG...LONG-TRACKED
TORNADOES--
17/00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES AND CURRENT GOES IPW DATA SHOW A RAPID
RETURN OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S/ NOW IN PLACE FROM SRN TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
COAST. STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
EWD THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL ENHANCE THE TRANSPORT OF THIS
MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON E OF DRY LINE FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NWD
THROUGH OK INTO KS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER E OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER...THOUGH
COMPARABLY RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE TX PNHDL ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER PARTS OF NWRN
TX...OK AND KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAKER...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
MOVING/DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
A COUPLE TORNADOES.
MORE SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE
OF EARLIER STORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF
SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS SWD/SEWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO WRN/CNTRL OK
AND FAR N-CNTRL TX. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE TO STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A HIGH LIKLIHOOD
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FROM SERN KS AND ERN OK INTO AR AND SRN MO
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS TODAY OVER PARTS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RETURNING NWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ AND PERHAPS ISOLATED WIND AND/OR
HAIL. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE NWD OVERNIGHT ALONG ERN BRANCH OF
LLJ THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...LIKELY
MERGING WITH OTHER STORM CLUSTERS ORIGINATING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SUPERCELLS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.
Im watching the storms pop in west texas they are blowing up and are showing some rotaion the storms dont apper to be elevated tops are low.
I am literally 6 miles from the hatched area on the new one day!!! PLEASE SHIFT WEST!!!
Good morning! Please stay safe and good luck if you're chasing this setup!
gooooooooood morning vietnam,,,uhh i mean oklahoma! sup volker did u buckle ur seatbelt? :P
TORNADO WATCH 706 HAS BEEN ISSUED:
Tornado Watch #706
Issued/Updated: Oct 17, 2007 at 0631 UTC
Expires: Oct 17, 2007 at 1400 UTC
Tornado Watch 706 Status Message has not been issued
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 135 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 705...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY
INCREASE IN NUMBER INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM SWRN
PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OK. SLY LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND MOISTEN WITH CONTINUED NE MOTION OF LEAD
IMPULSE...NOW OVER ERN NM...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE SRN RCKYS/GRT BASIN. SETUP MAY SUPPORT NEAR
SFC-BASED STORMS THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL GIVEN LOW LCLS AND CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT TO LOW LVL SHEAR.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...CORFIDI
hey volker i remember u talking bout spain...well did you hear wot happened last friday????
lol Cors, just working... and leaving in a few minutes! See you later :-)
I hope you will be here tonigh cause its about to go all pear shaped! AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
anyways my friend in east spain almost got flushed away with his car last friday...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 145 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ELKHART KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 705. WATCH NUMBER 705 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 145 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 706...
DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL FCST TO INCREASE AS ELEVATED
INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM S-N ACROSS WW AREA. 35-45
KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES FCST TO DEVELOP...SUGGESTING
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING PRIMARY CONCERN.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.
hey gene, sup long time no see, you chasing tomorrow?
yea im gunan wait and see what i can expect here in the dallas area if nothing good here im heading to oklahoma
they don't call it tornado alley for nothing........
just f goooooooooooooooo ;) to okc man! you're a die hard. I say leave now for okc. no sleep just go! =)
(lol maybe I want you to go for the both of us)
maybe someone can ask if they put the concorde back online for stormchasers only...=)
lol iv done been awake for over 24 hrs ima get sum sleep soon wake up about 8am and figure out where to go
sounds like the smart choice gene, its about 8am here now and im checking out some flights...lol
lol yea they show dallas is on the edge so we will see when the sun comes up i may head up to OKC early in the morning maybe find Reed eatting dounuts lol
kinda reminds me of last summer when i was checking out flight to cancun. i was chatting whit this tourist hotel service to this woman and i said lol in the unlike case there is a hurricane would the it be possible to stay in the hotel and not get mandatory evacuation to a shed inland. she was like ,,hurricane?? lol
wish i was there during wilma wasnt that the strongest hurricane on record?
Cors, you have to realize how close we are to OKC here in DFW. If Gene wants to chase up there he could wait until the afternoon to leave and still have plenty of time. I would head up there if my dad would take me. I need my drivers license :(
oh my bad conner i thought you are only allowed to drive 30mph in the usa unlike volkers germany where they have a thing called the autobahn. ;)
hehe just kiddn, i just lately noticed this vid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDzoONKQhk8
i got it from james r. favorites
heyyy wth the whole mod shifted back to the east...did this just happen or is heidi about to have a field day?!
I know i'm the only one up so check this out when you wake up: http://spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
It's a public weather statement from the SPC! It's been a llong long while since we've seen one of these! Even the weather channel was talking about a significant tornado event unfolding. and all the local news stations when they were covering the strong to severe storms in western OK were talking about a possible tornado outbreak!
I'm up... just read it. Thanks for sharing. Not sure why I'm up. I really should hit the hay so since I'm getting up relatively early to monitor. Ready to leave (chase) at a moments notice if need be.
I'm going to crash for a couple of hours...got a stupid test in the morning before i'm free to go chase. I kinda wanna monitor what's going on now...there's a possible svr tstorm md going on in central Ks and n central/west(if that makes sense)oklahoma. along with one right below the panhandle of texas with tornadoes as a possiblilty and that is very odd for 5 a.m.
oops i mean to say central ks and n central/east ok
yea... lot of activity unfolding for this hour. Will stay active right through the day. One of those situations where its hard to pull away from the PC
no shit dean
you know dean the hardest part is actually when u kinda know the tv.net team is about to make history and they just might like you enough to possibly bring you along on their ride to fame and you realize the first flight to okc will land around 5pm(read get diverted) and then read a post on the blog from someone who just talked to reed on the phone that they caught a monster and that the video is equal or better as the manchester wedge... lol
Lookie who it is about this event.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5wXj8aY1Gk
wow kev did u get urself a bluescreen? you should wear your hat next time...you dont look scarey enough ;)
and next time watch out for that hail..its a killer...
Im looking good for tomorrow. Im kinda in the 30% chance of severe storms tomorrow
Of to work be back this afternoon
AAAAAAAHHHHH!!!! Just woke up to see a moderate risk over central and eastern oklahoma!! Plus I'm in the area that Reed was talking about!
Thisi is going to be a long an fun day..........
Wow, there is already a ton of activity going on right now!
weather.gov
National Weather Service
Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
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Tornado Watch
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 706/707
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
728 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
TXC087-129-179-211-483-171400-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.A.0706.000000T0000Z-071017T1400Z/
TORNADO WATCH 706 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY GRAY
HEMPHILL WHEELER
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CANADIAN...CLARENDON...PAMPA...
SHAMROCK...WELLINGTON AND WHEELER.
$$
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 706
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
OKC009-039-043-045-055-057-059-065-075-129-149-151-153-TXC197-
171400-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.A.0706.000000T0000Z-071017T1400Z/
TORNADO WATCH 706 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
DEWEY ELLIS HARPER
WOODS WOODWARD
IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
GREER HARMON JACKSON
KIOWA
IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BECKHAM CUSTER ROGER MILLS
WASHITA
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY
IN NORTHERN TEXAS
HARDEMAN
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTUS...ALVA...ARNETT...BUFFALO...
CHEYENNE...CHILLICOTHE...CLINTON...CORDELL...ELK CITY...HOBART...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...QUANAH...SAYRE...TALOGA...
WEATHERFORD AND WOODWARD.
$$
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 706
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
TXC155-275-171400-
/O.EXA.KOUN.TO.A.0706.000000T0000Z-071017T1400Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 706 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN TEXAS
FOARD KNOX
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CROWELL...KNOX CITY AND MUNDAY.
$$
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 706
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
TXC125-263-269-433-171400-
/O.EXA.KLUB.TO.A.0706.000000T0000Z-071017T1400Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 706 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS
DICKENS KENT KING
STONEWALL
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ASPERMONT...DICKENS...GUTHRIE...
JAYTON AND SPUR.
$$
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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 706
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
546 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
TXC045-075-101-107-153-189-191-303-345-437-171400-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.A.0706.000000T0000Z-071017T1400Z/
TORNADO WATCH 706 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS
COTTLE CROSBY FLOYD
HALE LUBBOCK MOTLEY
IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
BRISCOE CHILDRESS HALL
SWISHER
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHILDRESS...CROSBYTON...FLOYDADA...
LOCKNEY...LUBBOCK...MATADOR...MEMPHIS...PADUCAH...PLAINVIEW...
QUITAQUE...RALLS...ROARING SPRINGS...SILVERTON...SLATON...TULIA...
TURKEY AND WOLFFORTH.
$$
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Wow!! bizzy mornin!! hehe Good luck again to all who chase!! stay safe and have fun!! And bring us back some goodies!! lol I gotta wirk!! I'll try to keep posted
Good luck to everyone chasing today!
Living in suburban Chicago, it looks like we're in for it tomorrow. My main concern is that my son is going on a camping trip for school, leaving today for an area near Rockford, IL. This has me a little concerned based on the SPC forecast - they had us in MOD yesterday - 2+ days out - which is pretty serious business. Today the outlook looks even more strongly worded than it was yesterday.
If any of the pros can put some insight into the main threat areas for tomorrow, I would really appreciate it!
Severe weather is fascinating, but in this case I'm not too thrilled as I will not be "in control" in case something develops. Parents out there reading this will understand - I realize I have no control on weather, but I do with regard to my family.
Thanks for listening and any heads-up for tomorrow!
PDS Situation is unfolding!!! The national weather service has issued a PDS TORNADO WATCH wich is in effect untill 4p.m.!! A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is nocking on my door! I'll keep you all posted!
This is definently going to be a long day.....
There's a strange smell of sulfur in the air...
In other news: Tom, seeing as how you are smack-in-the-middle of the Moderate Risk for tomorrow (with little change from yesterday's Mod. Risk area), I too would be nervous about any camping trips. It *appears* as if today should be fine, but I have to say that I wouldn't want to be camping tonight or especially tomorrow. But it sounds like you already know that & are staying on top of the situation.
Now ... IT'S GAME DAY!!!!! I hope the citizens of Oklahoma, Kansas and Arkansas (!!!!!) are paying attention today. These setups are majorly exciting, OBVIOUSLY, but then it sets in that there are cities and people ... we all know this, of course, but when you wake up in the morning and realize that you suddenly have a responsibility to help your neighbors protect their lives and property, it is another kind of AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
Stay safe, everyone. It looks like we will have a night-time supercell event to deal with here in the Ozarks. I decided late last evening that our chances of being at the neighbor's shelter at midnight tonight were about 50/50, if the models are right. - I might have to get a real video camera today at WAL-MART. ... Anyway, I am going to get together a bunch of links for TV stations in the affected region and then post them so we can favorite them for when they go live-stream. Have a great day, folks, and again, stay safe!
Zack - what do they do about schools on a day like this? I'm thinking of the disaster that happened in Alabama earlier in the year, where they sent the kids home ... I think that is NOT a good idea (kids at home playing video games are not paying attention to local weather broadcasts or tornado sirens). Let us know what's happening, Zack!
Yeah Hiedi!! News 4 is already doing live coverage!!! New Severe storm warnings have been issued! I have never seen such strong wording in the national weather service in a long time!!
sounds like a good plan heidi ;)
Hiedi.... Lucky for me I am out of school today for Fall break. Right now the national weather service has numerous severe thunderstorm warnings out!!!
Are you in the MOD. risk???
For all of you who are desperate for the latest info. on this severe weather event... I have a website link to where I get my info. (click name)
holy crap okc is about to get slammed! wake up the time is now
THIS IS A SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE.....
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC017-073-171515-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0622.071017T1434Z-071017T1515Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
934 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
* AT 934 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CALUMET...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CALUMET...CONCHO...DOVER...EL
RENO...KINGFISHER...OKARCHE AND PIEDMONT.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 104 AND 131.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WINDS AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3612 9786 3574 9768 3545 9786 3538 9820
3539 9830 3570 9831 3574 9827 3574 9820
3580 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 223DEG 51KT 3545 9829
$$
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
929 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
OKC073-171500-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0619.000000T0000Z-071017T1500Z/
KINGFISHER OK-
929 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FOR KINGFISHER COUNTY...
AT 929 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE DOVER AND KINGFISHER.
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. WINDS OF 86 MPH WERE RECORDED
EARLIER AT THE MESONET SITE IN KINGFISHER.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WINDS AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3618 9769 3591 9767 3589 9767 3583 9768
3573 9794 3573 9800 3585 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1429Z 229DEG 39KT 3597 9778
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC047-083-171515-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0621.071017T1424Z-071017T1515Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
924 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
* AT 924 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOVELL...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH. PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. WINDS OF 86 MPH WERE RECORDED AT THE
MESONET SITE IN KINGFISHER.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CIMARRON CITY...COVINGTON...
CRESCENT...DOUGLAS...HAYWARD...LANGSTON...LOVELL...MARSHALL...
MULHALL AND ORLANDO.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 160 AND 165.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WINDS AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3632 9744 3617 9745 3616 9737 3612 9734
3599 9735 3601 9731 3593 9725 3587 9767
3616 9767 3617 9777 3646 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 1424Z 223DEG 52KT 3600 9777
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC015-017-171515-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0620.071017T1424Z-071017T1515Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
924 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
* AT 924 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF EAKLY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WINDS OF 65 MPH
ARE LIKELY.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ALBERT...BINGER...COGAR...EAKLY...
HINTON...LOOKEBA AND NORTHWESTERN FORT COBB RESERVOIR.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 101 AND 116.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WINDS AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3556 9834 3555 9832 3558 9831 3564 9821
3552 9807 3538 9809 3519 9810 3522 9853
3537 9862
TIME...MOT...LOC 1424Z 243DEG 29KT 3534 9847
$$
CMS
Heidi, you might want to check out the new mesoscale discussion. Not sure if you are included or not.
Either way, could get ugly.
9:55 a.m. my friend just txt me and said a small tornado touched down near kingfisher, ok!!! so it begins...Louisiana is under a md right now concerning increasing tornado potential!!! anyone know how to say widespread outbreak is coming?
Zack, I'm in the Moderate Risk, 15% hatched like you guys, only our stuff will probably not get here until after dark. I'm in Izard Co. AR - North Central Arkansas - there's one county between ours & the MO border.
I am still trying to get my act together for the links to the live streams. If anyone else posts them, lets try to also put them in the text of our message, instead of just doing the "chick the name" thing with them. It's easier to bring up another tab & see what you're looking at with the address that way. :D
AAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX...LA...SRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171436Z - 171630Z
STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND
A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS ADVECTING NWD OUT
OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F.
A WEAK MESO LOW WAS NOTED AS WELL AND COULD BE SEEN ON VISIBLE
IMAGERY OVER SERN TX. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS LA WERE INDICATING
MODERATE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2.
HOWEVER...SOME WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS/HODOGRAPHS WAS NOTED IN
THE 2-4 KM LAYER.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND SOME POCKETS OF
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS SE
TX/LA AND SPREADING NWD INTO SRN AR. TORNADO THREAT WILL NOT BE HIGH
INITIALLY...BUT WILL INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS THIS OCCURS...WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS WITH THREAT OF
TORNADOES.
This is for south Arkansas, not me (yet) Strike ... I can see this stuff streaming up from the gulf right now on the SPC overview map. Yikes!
TORNADO TOUCH DOWN IN KINGFISHER!!!!
Yeah Heidi, I agree... We should find all the media stations web links and post them... I know quite a few if you want me to post them... I live in oklahoma city.
Go ahead and post them, Zack. I have about 6 different tabs right now, so it would be helpful. Hey, what county are you, anyway, just so we know. And do you have a shelter & everything? What about your friends, etc.?
hey zack can u fix that teletransporter for me(without the fly) i cant handle booking a flight right now...
heidi wot are your plans dont you live smack in the middle of the mod?
Heidi I'm in oklahoma county if you know where that is...
Unfortunately I don't have a shelter!!! We hide in the bathroom with blankets and pillows. Dunno bout my friends though.
I'll get to posting the links A.S.A.P.
I'm back.
@Cors: Yes, I recognized that sth. happened in eastern Spain. I watched the sat images. They had some serious floods caused by MCS hadn't they?
@Heidi that's a good suggestion - I'm also searching for webcam links and live stream links from the areas of interest. If anyone has some, please post it! Thanks
Welcome back Volker...lol. Serious shit unfolding!!
Volker that day you pointed at that supercell that produced this tornado in mallorca I phoned my buddy in javea and he didnt notice a thing...i was often telling him about the severe weather warning in spain. and he kinda looked at me if i was insane,,,hail during the summer??? now, last friday he finally understood wot i was on bout while he was flooting away in his car during biblical floods. ha!
Well we have a huge wall cloud just to the west of us that I will post the pictures of in a little while.
that's incredible monty.
volker did you ever hear of the greensburg tornado?
looks like a tornado watch might be issued for ne ok/e ks soon according to the new md...well i have class and then a test and then at 1 p.m. i will be ready for the real action to begin! you can feel it in the air here in norman...everything is going nuts...really windy. good luck and be safe everyone!
Guys.... we REALLY need to be focusing on the severe weather right now... not in the past!
hey ez its windy wonder why,,,maybe there is a huge convective system just west of ya :P
its funny i happen to know most stormchaser hate the movie twister, but how many of you know it was directed by a dutch man =)
Oklahoma City:
http://www.koco.com/index.html
http://newsok.com/weather/
http://www.kfor.com/Global/category.asp?C=5528&nav=menu99_3
Tulsa:
http://www.ktul.com/weather/
http://kotv.com/weather/
http://www.kjrh.com/weather/default.aspx
Wichita:
http://www.kake.com/weather
http://www.ksn.com/weather
Springfield, MO:
http://www.ky3.com/weather/forecast
http://ozarksfirst.com/content/weather
Fort Smith/Fayetteville AR:
http://www.kfsm.com/Global/category.asp?C=11600&nav=menu151_2
Little Rock, AR:
http://www.katv.com/weather/
Jonesboro, AR:
http://www.kait8.com/global/category.asp?c=4390
Texarkana, AR/TX:
http://arklatexhomepage.com/content/weather
Shreveport, LA:
http://www.ksla.com/Global/category.asp?C=2800&nav=menu50_3
I know that not all of those links do a live stream during tornado warnings, but some of them do.
I see koco is on top, where it should be...not that i was there(may3/99) but they sure made a rep. lol and so did reed..
here is one picture of the wall cloud that came through 10 minutes ago. ^-^
hey heidi, come over to my place for a little bit, need to chat. :D
Zack, what does it look like outside right now?
Monty, that's awesome!
CORS!!!!!!! Yeah, sorry I keep forgetting to tell ya that YES, I'M IN THE HATCHED ZONE!!!!!!!
Be there in a sec.
Here is a picture of the back side of the wall cloud ^-^
Thanks Heidi.... That will be really helpfull later on....
I do know Koco and kfor do live stream coverage during tornado warnings..
Oh here is another severe thunderstorm warning..
Special Weather Statement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
OKZ023-171545-
CADDO OK-
1015 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO COUNTY.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAKLY AT 1015
AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
PEOPLE IN CADDO COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
$$
CMS
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1037 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EXTREME NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...KIRBYVILLE...BUNA... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
Heidi Its just cloudy and VERY windy at the moment... Keeping a close eye on the storms to my south west...
Here is another one of the wall cloud.
Hey guys whats up??
just wondering that storm chaser series is on tonight isn't it....at 10 o'clock, just that its not showing up on my box??? please someone tell me because i dont want to miss this lol
Nice pictures Monty.. But let me point out that that wasn't a wall cloud... That was definently a Shelf cloud or gust front..
Hey Tim... Have you checked the U.S's weather yet becuase some serious stuff is going on!!! Read the previous comments and you'll find out!!
We're heading out in the next 15 minutes for a target northwest of OKC at the northeast apex of the dryline bulge. We'll have the tracker up and running soon!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Hey Zack yeh i have checked the weather for you lol and its going well have to say lol :P
sorry to ask again but do you know if that series is on tonight on discovery channel lol??
also zack whats your e-mail cause i need to get some details of you for the site please....
Tim May I ask what exactly are you going to do w/ my e-mail??
It is just so i can get some details of your for my site cause me and AJ have been waiting to get them of you..... so i can put you on my site if that is ok??
Monty, Awesome pictures!
Ok Well its rcajr2@sbcglobal.net
Thanks Zack...... i have added you if that is ok and will get some details off you....thank you.
Nice pictures Monty that looks amazing!!
TX seems to be getting it at the moment....
Good luck Reed!
Hey Tim... Where did you add me cause I can't find it
STORM COMMING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Guys the sky is getting black! Winds are picking up!!
Oh here is the video of the kingfisher tornado from earlier this morning...
Oh I'm sorry... Here it is...
http://www.koco.com/video/4071149/index.html
Zack i added you on msn lol......do you have it??
This is really starting now it looks great on gr3....both storms in TX and OK..
Thanks Zack for the info. I was thinking at the time a wall cloud had to have more height to it.
No... Could you give me the link?
for msn?? its something you download..... if you have an address and a password then donload msn messenger and then you can talk to your friends like..... that is if you were asking me lol
Oh jeez... Duh!
what lol you have lost me lol....
Good luck Reed hope ya get someting.... out in the open!!
Tim you should be here in oklahoma right now!
I wish i was Zack i wish i was.... well glad you are getting something, it looks great on gr3 :D
Woohoo, tv.net tracker just went live. We get to follow Reed and co.
So, where's the streaming real-time video? :-)
Yeah it does doesn't it..... The tornado threat is really incr.
So much for getting any work done today. This is far more important. haha
OUR DEWPOINT IS 69 DEGREES!!!!!!!!!!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeh there should be something soon..... it looks as if it is heading east....but i dont know lol :P
Did you get my email Zack??
When I go to the tracker it doesn't show anything on the map. Is it working for anyone else?
The tracker is working for me. It shows a google map with a position marker (teardrop), along with more specific info (lat, long, status, etc.) on the right.
I just Read it Tim.... Yeah I'll send you a picture if I just Knew how.... Could you help.. I know alot about computers but not everthing!*frustrated
Yeh sure Zack...... if you go onto a reply email as if you were going to send me one....copy and paste a picture of you onto the email i think that is how you do it....is that any help??
Monty, you have to click on the "start auto update" button on the right-hand side. Right now mine says they're stopped. Maybe they decided to just sit in the lot going AAAAAAAAAAA all day! :D
Kinda.... How do you upload a picture?
(I am so sorry, and I'm probably getting anoying.)
Its ok i dont mind no need to say sorry.... if you open a picture of you, just double click on it, copy and paste it into the email, it should show..... ill try it here and let you know ok
Hey!! The tracker is not working for me!!! I am gonna scream!!!!!
Instability is increasing over my area!!
Thanks Tim..
its ok Zack, no worries lol :P
get some pics if you can will ya Zack lol :P sorry probs a bit cheeky lol
Great updates and analysis!! Your live chase tracker is not working. I get the latitudes, longitudes updated but no map is visible.
Tim... What you can do for now is send me an e-mail and I will reply back w/ some details about me... And when I figure Out how to upload a photo Of my self i'll let you know Ok.
ALL to get live tracker to work, and as Heidi stated, you must press the auto refresh button
Zack, are you using IE or firefox?
Ok yeh that