News DetailDamaging tornadoes reported in Southwest MO yesterday
Posted At: October 17, 2007 @ 10:21 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A lone tornadic supercell developed over the Ozarks of northwest Arkansas and moved northeastward through southwest Missouri yesterday evening, producing several confirmed tornadoes. Debris was reported falling from the sky in Lawrence County, MO, where several structures were damaged. Shown below is a radar loop showing the textbook tornadic supercell:
Here is a picture of one of the tornadoes, taken by a resident of the area:
While a significant tornado outbreak was anticipated over Kansas and Oklahoma, all of the tornadoes occurred east of the Great Plains: in southwest MO and the western Gulf Coast. A majority of these reports were associated with a single supercell that tracked across Lawrence and Greene Counties in MO between 2250 and 2338 UTC. Thankfully, no injuries or fatalities have been reported. Stay tuned for updates.
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Hey Reed, what do u say about tomorrow up in IL, I am preparing to Chase...What would be your thoughts on initiation as of right now?
Also how was your chase? Did u catch anything decent?
I'm surprised Springfield got most of the action this afternoon. I watched the storm from this post from a north facing window at work. Really was a good looking cell.
Man so what cell was everybody on today? I went to the one by Binger and then moved on to the "big" one and followed it through Minko, Tuttle, Mustang, OKC, Edmond and i was wondering why it never fully dropped something all the way down? anyone know?
Hey Ben, my friend and i are preparing to head out also. We're thinking we will have to head out east (we are in bloomington) in the morning. what do you think?
Yeah.... Today was a total bust!!! Saw some quarter size hail this morning but nothing to out of control like expected...
A significant cold front is forecasted to move into the region this weekend with highs in the upper 50's and low 60's and lows in the mid to upper 40's!!!!!
I am now shifting to winter weather mode... Well It's getting late and my bed is calling to me, so i guess i'm off for tonight. good luck to anyone chasing in Illinios tomorrow!!
I'm not sure, Judging by Lincoln NWS wording"The best chances of severe storms will be along I-55 and East" I think they are talking the mod risk area...However by I-55 i think they mean I-155, as there map shows the circle including me...here in Morton. So for initiation, just guessing, i would go for somewhere inbetween Peoria and Bloomington...
But im not sure...I e-mailed and asked reed, on here, so im hoping for a reply...other than that i am calling the NWS in the morning to get there perspective of the situation.
To see some pictures from our chase today click my name. I was able to scrap a few good picture there at the end of the day. Too bad it was ruined by some stupid cops.
Nice series of photos, Wes. It was strange to see blue sky since we were socked in with low-level clouds and fog/mist all day. At least you guys got some good structure. Even if there had been some storms here suring the day, I wouldn't have been able to see them. :-/
I am waiting to hear thoughts on what "went wrong" today (as in, why those storms didn't produce as expected ... what was missing, etc.). I can wait until tomorrow, though. feeling ... sleepy ... zzzzzzzzzzz
There were some obvious reason it didnt pan out today. The 850 and 500mb winds looked horrible across OK for most of the day. The timing of everything was off for sure. Most obvious reason it busted though is because it was a mod risk over OK, that should have thrown up some red flags right there. If it was KS it would have been fine.
well atleast you got to see a storm...havnt seen one here since Sept 1
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MO/AR/SRN IL/WRN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 713...714...
VALID 180356Z - 180500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 713...714...CONTINUES.
NEW WW/S WILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF MO AND AR EXTENDING INTO SRN
IL/ WRN KY AS ONGOING AND NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS MO/AR
AND SPREADS ENEWD OVERNIGHT. THESE NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY REPLACE ALL
OR PARTS OF WW/S 713 AND 714.
STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
REGIONS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOW LCLS EXTENDING NWD
INTO MO/IL/ WRN KY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD E TOWARD THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AS BASE OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 80-90 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH ATTENDANT
TORNADO THREAT.
ALTHOUGH REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SQUALL LINE ACROSS CENTRAL MO
INTO NWRN AR...WITH RECENT STRONG WIND GUST REPORTS IN SWRN
MO...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE. FARTHER
S...DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
Another watch possibly? The top of that is 1 county South of me...could be a longggg night.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ALTON ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 714. WATCH NUMBER 714 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1140 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 713...WW 715...WW 716...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS MO AND INTO WESTERN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...AS WELL AS
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
And there weeee go.
Well, it is midnight and our storms have arrived. I actually went to bed for 1/2 hr before realizing it was time to get back up and check the radar. This could get interesting. Geez, I do not like night-time events AT ALL!
We're in a tornado watch until 6:00 AM now, too.
I did want to mention, too, that just before I posted this, some lunatic/daredevil was out FLYING A PLANE close enough that I could hear it.
BOY the lightning is intense!
Heidi?? Are you finally getting some action??
Great photo's Wes!! Man you do some great work!!
Yeah, the storm action has arrived. There was just a TVS on a county couth of here (same cell as the one over us now) which I don't necessarily like to see at 12:30 AM ... BIG-TIME anvil crawlers & CGs right now!
yeah!! Good luck on that!! I know what you mean about the late night storms!! I love the "crawlers"!! I wish we had some besides the Northwood storm!! =( Usually we get a few in a year!! your Just outside Franklin right?? I've gotta step out again quick, I'll be back to watch that cell!! I hope it doesn't get to ugly for ya!!
Yeah, you got it on the locale ... still INTENSE lightning. There is also a sevre-warned cell west of here heading this way - once that's over, it's off to bed.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1210 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BAXTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SEARCY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHWESTERN STONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
* UNTIL 100 AM CDT
* AT 1206 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SAINT JOE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SAINT JOE AROUND 1215 AM CDT...
MARSHALL AROUND 1220 AM CDT...
LOWER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA AROUND 1235 AM CDT...
FIFTY SIX AROUND 1245 AM CDT...
Any time a warning says "...the storm will be near ... Fifty Six (which is the name of a town- go figure)..." chances are pretty good that we'll see it here.
Cool water vapor image right now.
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteusnational/uswatervaporsatellite_large.html
it will probably need to be refreshed by the time anyone looks at it
Least yer seeing some action, Heidi! Nothing up here in Iowa for quite a while and doubt it 'til next year..lol
This should actually be for Fulton Co. AR also. Viola and Mammoth Spring are both AR towns. Oh and this is the cell that I was talking about that was approaching from the west that DID NOT COME HERE. WHy am I still up?? ANyone, Anyone? (remember Ben Stein in The Wonder Years?!)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
132 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
OREGON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 230 AM CDT.
* AT 129 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS VERY
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF VIOLA...OR 14
MILES WEST OF MAMMOTH SPRING...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
THAYER BY 145 AM CDT.
ALTON BY 155 AM CDT.
THE TOWNS OF KOSHKONONG...COUCH AND WILDERNESS ARE ALSO IN THE PATH
OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
Morning guys...wow looks as if the action is still going, is anyone still there??
Yeah I am. The storms just now got to St. Louis, so I stayed up to watch them roll in. I have to say they were really disappointing.
Not anymore, Tim! I'm GOING TO BED! YAY!!!!!!! :D
Ah damn it, i saw the warnings and thought it was still going lol....ah well, see ya later Heidi!
Yeah we had maybe 3 gusts to about 50 mph or so, hardly any lightning, no hail, and maybe 5 minute downpour. I'm going to call it a night cause there's really nothing to watch anymore. Sorry, Tim.
How are things Tim?? Wow!! some crazy weather around here eh?!! noreaster expected here!!
Hey Andrew!! How's things in Anoka??
lol Well its probably a good thing, i got o go to school so....
next week im off so i wont miss anything lol
See ya Andrew!
Hey Brady....not much really just getting ready for school.... How are you??
Things got quiet interesting around 1 o'clock there, i counted atleast 12 tornadoarnings at once!!
That's Insane!! I had 9 when I got home from work!! I'll try to bring my internet to work tomorrow!! My laptop needs some repair!! But I should be able to get er running!!
Man!! A tornado warning at 2am in MO!! Scary sh%t!!
lol Yeh it got mad for a while lol......
Ive just been outside and its freezing temps, its so cold..... i want summer back lol :D
Yeh that is scary, how do they get the warning out if everyone is asleep?!?
Anyway i have to go to school....eh :(....
will be back around 11 cause got a load work to do after school so speak to you later Bardy.....Have a good one see ya!
Hehe Bardy!! It's cool!! hehe I've been busy here with stuff I gotta deal with on the home front!! =( This is some crazy weather we're dealing with!! I don't know what to make of the radar or the forecast!!
Here is a tor from today I think:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwoaE5vcGp4
Hey Brady, that other Andrew is a new guy! I am now AndrewMN! Just to keep us separate.
And I am wondering if the reason why the line of supercells in OK didn't produce yesterday was because the instability was too low for the amount of shear and the storms got pushed over too much? I have heard of this happening before.
Anyway that is just my dumb 2 cents worth.
What are the chances of tornadoes in the Lansing, michigan area tonight?
Sweet, just checked the SPC, and it looks like I'm in a Moderate risk today :D
I hope I can get some good pics.
the new SPC outlook for today has moved the moderate risk well south then the first outlook
Good morning guys..... Its a chilly 59 degrees over here right now. Only supposed to get up to 73 degrees today.
I must say that yesterday was a bust! All the tornadoes developed east of the risk areas. What happened?? Were we missing something. Oh well.... Looks like that was probably the last risk of severe weather for the year.
Where is everybody!!!
I'm in Morton IL, inbetween the IL river and I-55, Which is the area, they are talking about for initiation. I will spot for the county today, but i have chosen not to chase, because the storms will be raising NE at 40-50mph, if not faster. Making them almost impossible to chase.
Currently here at work our weather station on top of the building says the temp is 69, The humidity is 52 percent and rising, and the barometric pressure is 29.3 and falling.
I'll keep everyone up to date
Hey guys, how is the day looking then??
just about to check the SPC outlook
Sorry Brady about spelling your name bardy sorry
Hey Tim.... Hows it going?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21357183/from/RS.1/
storms did their toll.
Looks like west and middle Tennessee could be under the gun this evening.
000
FLUS44 KOHX 181435 AAA
HWOOHX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
930 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...COUPLED WITH ABNORMAL WARMTH AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NASHVILLE AREA AND TO THE WEST IN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH A SLIGHT RISK TO THE EAST..
Also...
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 181301
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-182100-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ILLINOIS
MUCH OF INDIANA
NORTHERN AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EXTREME WESTERN OHIO
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH INTO ONTARIO EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND OZARKS YESTERDAY...AND WILL SERVE TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN THE DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED IN WESTERN IOWA.
THE IOWA LOW WILL DRAW A BROAD CURRENT OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.
AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS...THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IOWA LOW.
WITH JET STREAM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SERVE AS FUEL...THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. WITH A
BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THESE ROTATING STORMS COULD BECOME LONG-LIVED AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LIKELY WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS...A MORE LIMITED POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXTEND SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST...EAST TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.