News DetailTornado Outbreak likely on Wednesday
Posted At: October 16, 2007 @ 2:36 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
If the 00z model runs verify for this Wednesday afternoon and evening, a classic Southern Plains tornado outbreak of historic proportions is likely this Wednesday afternoon and evening, with several long-track, violent tornadoes possible from central KS south to extreme north-central TX. The WRF is forecasting an environment of 1500-3000 J/kg CAPE, zero CIN, and 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km helicity for the entire warm sector east of a sharp dryline, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 in central OK! The hodographs look very favorable for strong tornadoes, with INTENSE low-level shear. Shown below are some forecast panels from this evening's WRF model, with the area of highest tornado threat shaded in red. We will definitely be chasing this event!
Not surprisingly, the SPC has issued a moderate risk for the above area, with the possibility for long-track, damaging tornadoes from central/southeast KS and the eastern 2/3 of Oklahoma. Residents in this area should stay tuned to local media for the latest updates, as a very dangerous situation could unfold across the Southern Plains on Wednesday.
Not surprisingly, the SPC has issued a moderate risk for the above area, with the possibility for long-track, damaging tornadoes from central/southeast KS and the eastern 2/3 of Oklahoma. Residents in this area should stay tuned to local media for the latest updates, as a very dangerous situation could unfold across the Southern Plains on Wednesday.
wow i cannot sleep now...the whole "Southern Plains tornado outbreak of historic proportions is likely this Wednesday afternoon and evening" has brought great joy to my heart
If I could sleep right now I would be. But the potential magnitude of this event is incredible. I can hardly stand the wait to see tomorrow's 12z and 00z runs. I'm still hoping that somehow the models slow the system down a bit.
My friend Brett and I were just looking at random forecast soundings to see which location would show the highest helicity values and we think we found it. At 51 hours, the NAM forecast sounding for Joplin, MO (KJLN) is showing ludicrous values. 0-1km is 546 m2/s2 and 0-3km is 738 m2/s2. WTH!!!! If any storms make it to SW Missouri, there is going to be plenty of wind shear to sustain themselves.
when does it look like the the show will be starting? and where do you think? i'm a rookie with all this NAM and stuff and am just starting to learn about it.
The GEM is also saying you guys are in for it!
And everybody east and northeast.
All the way to Newfoundland.
Good luck and stay safe!
awesome models Reed and Co! Surely this season has been the ultimate for you guys!!
Looks like I got back from vacation just in time. Looks incredible!
Definitely a double edged sword. Part of me hopes you guys catch some great video, and the other part of me sees the wrf precip graphic- yikes! One of those tracks goes right through Oklahoma City. Let's hope all the "stuff" stays over OPEN, UNPOPULATED country!
Hey Guys!!! I'm so pumped for tommorrow my dad and I will be out for sure. My adreneline is already pumping lol. This is going to be a very dangerous event for the residents of the OK & S KS.
Then Kansas City Area is on the Edge of the Moderat Risk Area.
I know everyone here is all excited about this but me...Well I am on the other Side of this as the Name says terrified of Weather like that.
I will definatly keep on Top of the Weather Situation tomorrow.
Another chase in the same week. I sure hope I can get off of work to drive south some and chase. The models look pretty promising at this point.
This went from a day with potential, to a outbreak in a matter of minutes when the WRF came out. Its going be an intense afternoon. It is fair to say I will not be going into work that day.
If all this hype is true, I wont be surprized to see a HIGH RISK at the 1730Z update, If not, Then by the 1 am DAY1.
Have yall noticed OKC Got hit by a Tornado in 1999, 2003, Then 1 day later in 2003, And now its 2007.....
Uh oh
Looks like for me, Chicago area may get in on this on Thursday! Moderate risk for northern IL on Thurs. I am excited! Good luck on Wednesday Reed.
Given the potential in OK, I have decided to just go park on the Sheilds Blvd bridge on I-35 in Moore and wait for the tornado to come to me.
Look at the years: 1999, 2003, 2007!!! 1999 + 4 = 2003 + 4 = 2007!!!!!!!!!!
Tomarrow looks unbelievable!! I think I know why the midwest is so flat now!! Its because of massive wedges over millions of years on days like tomarrow. Damn I wish I lived a little closer, good luck Reed & everyone else that will be out tomarrow.
ATTENTION WAL MART SHOPPERS!
Our 493 stores located in the above shaded areas will be closed on Wednesday due to the high likelihood of tornadic activity in and around the premises. Sorry for the inconvenience.
This is going to be fantastic. On top of that, don't forget that Thursday is interesting as well...want to visit the family Reed?
insanity! get to the triple point boys...! anyone whos chasing this stay safe...
Wow that is a nasty setup for sure. I live in Ohio and we are just outside of the moderate risk area for Thursday. Just in time for the Pumpkin show which is notorious for bad weather and had a nader there in 03 I do believe.
Hilarious, Strike! :D
I am going to see if my husband will skip school tomorrow and chase this (he teaches HS). We're close enough to the action that I feel like it ... hold on a second...
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Okay, had to get that out of my system. It seems that those violins I was asking for last night have sounded in remarkable fashion, wouldn't you say?! Okay, where was I? AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!! (sorry!)
I found myself practically unable to read the forecasts from SPC - and I haven't even looked at the GFS or ETA yet. Can you imagine what it must be like to be the dude who writes up the outlooks for the SPC. I bet this person has to visit the restroom several times before its finished!!!!!!! Of course, he/she could always choose to get back into like with Depends!
(really, I haven't had ANY coffee!)
Okay, as I was saying, this is all so close to us geographically that I think we might make it our first official chase day ... unless things look more favorable for huge things happening closer to home. I am not liking the possibility of sustained overnight tornadic supercells at home (babbling, sorry)... AAAAAAAAAAAAA
Reed, you seriously have a good idea about having your videos, etc. underground.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA again (sorry) :D
Hey guys, this one looks intense!
I'm searching for a good model source for North America (gfs and wrf models), can you give me a hint (some links maybe)?
Thanks!
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/index.php?model=gfs
Volker, there's the place where I get the GFS & ETA
this might get really crazy i think i might callin sick to work any maybe work my way up to oklahoma and see what i can find. unless the modle changes and comes down towards dallas a little. i just put all my batteries on the charger lol.
OMG!!!!! THIS IS INSANE. What a difference in the models over the last couple of days. I seriously though Sunday was my last chase of the year and all I bagged was a crummy LP. NOw this and its CHRISTMAS!!!I will be headed out with a friend sometime tommorow. I dont think this is a good setup for any rookies to venture out with this one. This is going to be a very dangerous situation and if u dont know what your doing you could get yourself seriously hurt or even killed. If you have to go anyways hook up with someone who knows what they are doing. Have FUN TOMMOROW EVERYONE AND BE SAFE!!!
Thanks a lot Heidi, that are some better maps than I had before! I'm still open for more links
I agree with Jordan that tomorrow will be very dangerous, especially for rookie chasers. Storm motions will be very fast, in or around 40mph. Match that with very low cloud bases and you could very easily find yourself in between a rock and a hard place (or large tornado) real quick. I am not a big fan of days with fast moving and violent tornadoes. The smallest mistake by even the most experienced could be bad. Everyone be careful tomorrow and bag some large late year tornadoes. My B-day is next week so i am taking this as my present from mother nature.
Hey Heidi lol yea this event may get really bad David might be right they might up it to high risk but who knows im just gunna keep my eye on it see how it turns out.
Another place for forecast maps (high detail than RAP) is http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
They come out an hour or 2 later on COD than on RAP but they look much better. The WRF-NMM on COD is the same as the ETA on RAP. You can also look at just the Southern Plains on COD unlike RAP. It is definitely my favorite place to look at maps.
Assuming that the comments above (about "rookie chasers") are in reference to my comments about potentially making tomorrow my "first official chase," I would like to clarify: I am in no way indicating plans to head to the place that by tomorrow (or this evening) will probably be the heart of the high risk area, and then go running around aimlessly and flapping my wings like a chicken with its head cut off, asking to get eaten by a wedge. ;D ... What I meant is that the setup allows me to think about taking things a little farther out of my normal range, across the border into MO. I realize that all the AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAs make it look like I'm wanting to go out and lasso a monster, but that's not the case. I live in the Ozarks, so I know about the dangers of tough chase terrain (tree, hills, etc), awful road networks, etc ... but the thought of REAL STORMS MAKES ME SOUND OUT OF CONTROL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
:D
(I do agree about it being dangerous for rookies on the plains tomorrow, incidentally ... especially when there will be hoards of experts out there, too (no offense intended). In fact, the thought of all the chaser traffic during setups like this causes me to shudder.)
I am going to go mow my yard with a push mower in a bit, to put my EXPLOSIVE ENERGY (not to say hyperactivity) to good use! (You're welcome! :-)
It wasn't aimed at you. It was more generalized to people who might hear about possible tornadoes and just kinda wonder out tomorrow. You have been around here enough that i am sure you know enough to get by. I used the term rookie chasers, not so much as people who I would actually consider a chaser, more so someone of the general public thinking they can just drive around and see a tornado. I have known people in the past who know nothing about weather and thought about going storm chasing with no clue about whats going on.
WOW! The morning model runs look VERY impressive. I'm liking the low-level shear a little better in south Kansas, as the 850 mb flow seems to veer a little in OK...although it looks backed as well east of the dryline. Thursday also looks like an outbreak in eastern IL...we may have to make the trip up there for that event too. Depending on how Wed goes of course.
Let us know if you head out here Heidi!
Wes, I wrote what I did because I realized that I was sounding OUT OF CONTROL (I can't help it!!) and you guys are right to say what you said about "rookies." Tomorrow, with all the excitement, traffic, and severity of the situation, is a day when whoever is out there needs to be pretty comfortable with the area they're chasing, have good maps (and map skills), radar or a good nowcaster, etc. etc. or be with someone who does. ... I know exactly what you mean ... I thought I needed to write a response because I saw a need to try to tone down my spazzing out, because I was thinking about the possibility of someone totally new to the weather scene seeing "tornados possible in OK tomorrow" on TV, googling "tornado" on the internet, and then land in here, where they would THEN see what I wrote and get excited, thinking "Hey, I have a car, a video camera and know where all the overpasses are..." You of course see where I'm going with this!
... I am reading other people's thoughts about the models (STILL haven't looked at them myself yet...) and am wondering if I should really make any plans yet to head to, for instance, SW MO. More people are seeming to think that western AR has a decent chance ... but then again, as I said before, I am not liking the thought of darkness supercells in the Ozarks. AAAAAAAAA!
(I do need to mow my yard to do SOMETHING with this energy! :D)
Hey guys..... ive saw the models this morning before i went to school ( roughly about 3 o'clock where you lot are ) and i was like :O i am not sleeping tomorrow if this does happen, its looking great lol..... 45% chance of thunderstorms in southeast of OK.....but i guess im repeating what you all know lol
Good luck if you do head otu Reed!
Sorry if i set you off again Heidi lol
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Hey guys...great day coming tomorrow and thursday looks like for tornadoes...but lets not everybody get too happy and excited...this whole mod risk...prolly gonna be a high risk by tonight or tomorrow....is right over a VERY populated area...meaning ok city....we could have another may 3 99 on our hands...a lot of people could get hurt or worse....so everybody think about the people that could get hurt before we all go ballistic...now i wanna see the big one bad too...just lets all pray it happens over an unpopulated area...all i know is...reed and joel...watch your backsides out there tomorrow...and just a side note...severe studios is making plans to make the trip south for this one...something ive never seen them do...live cam could be up for it also...but again...everybody be safe out there the next couple of days...
Chasing anything down there looks like a circus. Sure glad it's not like that up here... yet.
Your right Ryan i have to say..... i was into weather and tornadoes on may 3r 1999 and i can remember seing the news articles of the devastation afterwards.....and even now i still watch them on youtube and that because it was soo horrific and it just wont leave you after what i saw..... i really do hope it doesn't go like that again.....
I probably cant talk because i was no where near there well in a differet county...but whenever i talk to people about tornadoes most of them ask about that one because it was so bad and will always be around
SPC is late on the 1730z outlook... maybe on a conference call debating the 2nd SWODY2 High risk???
Yes I am in agreement with Ryan, lets all hope that WEDGEFEST stays over remote area tomarrow... which remember there is plenty of in OK and KS. But the hell with not getting excited, this is the best setup we have seen in awhile.... I mean this is what we live for folks! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!
That's one of my biggest fears about being a noob!! I like to have a lil No Fear attitude, but I don't wanna be cocky and stupid when chasing!! That was another nice thing about working with Joe!! He didn't want to put me in danger either!!
I strongly recommend a nowcaster on a good chase!! And let the people here know what your initial plan is!!
Scratch that... I think that's the first time I've seen the SPC site update before the COD page. I probably broke it hitting refresh so many times.
Tomorrow and Thursday are going to be big days and I am trying to figure out if I have any grandparents left... I need a new excuse to get out of work :)
hey reed tell me if your coming to eastern ill.. i live in champaign and im getting off work thursday and chasing and it would be sweet being able to follow you around..
this would be my second big chase next to the south dakota chase in june(which was kinda a bust)
Is it Christmas ? I am in Perry , OKlahoma today working . I will head for Ponca City in morning as my start area . Good Luck ya'll
Jason Young
KE5PCA
Just read the New outlook for tomarrow, doesent sound as promising as the earlier one.
POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST FOR
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.
MOISTURE RETURN AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITH INITIAL IMPULSE ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A RAPID INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS
OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU REGION. MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE A LINGERING
COOL/STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING LOW/
MID-LEVEL CYCLONE NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
SOME OF THESE STORMS...MAINLY WHERE STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING
CONTRIBUTES TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS...COULD CONTAIN SOME LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THIS
THREAT MAY DIMINISH AS CONVECTION/CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BECOME
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AND DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY.
THE PROSPECT FOR CONSIDERABLE EARLY CONVECTION...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
LOWER SUN ANGLE/SEASONABLY WEAKER DAYTIME HEATING...PROVIDE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT
LATER WEDNESDAY...AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG/JUST EAST OF A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO
CURVE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS
BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH A
MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT MIXED LAYER
CAPE WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO STRONG UPDRAFTS. COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER NEAR A
90+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS. AND...LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 40-50+ KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. AND... IF
DESTABILIZATION IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY IMPEDED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUT...AGAIN...THIS
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME.
And on top of all that this whole system is coming to my neck of the woods on friday...spc is saying a squall line from NE to FL....and widespread severe storms....and i could be wrong with this...did spc use a little less strong wording in the last update?? now they say isolated strong tornadoes....if somebody could lemme know on that one....
LOL travis...you read my mind...
At 9 o'clock im going to go watch Britains greatest storm lol
I didn't think we had one lol :P
Yeh the wording isn't as strong now.....
If I didnt have a test tomorrow I would take off tonight for Ok. Guess Im stuck here trying to see if this SLGT is going to fire up anything today.
Ben are you going to be near a computer tomorrow for nowcasting? I am planning on getting out in the early afternoon in South Central KS and wondered what my options were.... :)
looks like im under a slight risk on thursday. Im not expecting anything but if anything happens all be there.
I have the day off tomorrow.
This set up tomorrow looks realllly impressive. As everyone has said, If it were closer i would try to head south from here in central IL, but instead im holding off for Thursday, which also looks very impressive. From looking at the models, im a little worried that the most severe action may actually occur a little farther east than the current axis/moderate risk zone includes. I seen that someone said earlier that Severe Studios is chasing tomorrow, which appears to be correct based on the wording on there site. The original wording was "Severe Studios is formulating a plan for a Southern Plains chase tomorrow, No we wont make it to Oklahoma, But we will make it into Kansas." Now the text says "SevereStudios is planning a chase to Kansas tomorrow. Some details still need to be ironed out, and we will make a final decision in the morning. Please check back for updates!"
On to another topic i feel may be being overlooked/ignored because of tomorrow, But Thursday is going to be explosive too, Currently i am located dead center in the moderate risk area(Morton IL), and i have nearly finalized my chase plans for then, Reed i seen you mention chasing this set up also? I'll have a few questions reguarding initiation still, and of course if you going to be chasing in the central/southern IL areas, you ought to hit me up @ 309-360-7489. But i will deffinitly be out on thursday.
Reed i may try to phone/e-mail you trying to get a second opinion on initiation for Thursday(as it gets closer). So if you see 309-360-7489, thats me.
Ben
TC422 - - This will be my call sign over the radio for anyone in IL(Tazewell County Emergency Services and Disaster Agency)
Monty, i might not be, depends on the timing of everything I'll be @ work(like i am now), And i have to work till 530cdt. So its doubtful, but you could try me, if it comes down to it, you may want to see if Brady has to work tomorrow.
I will be chasing tomorrow. It's on.. But I am going to be a bit lazy and hang out around N texas. The drive to Altus last sunday has me a bit worn.
Good Afternoon, I just returned from school.
The latest outlook does not look as promising, btu as everyone else is saying, the models are looking better and better..
Also, Someone pointed this out to me, Does anyoen notice that huge cell going right thru Tulsa on the WRF?
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!asdjkhlglfd! Historic Proportions???? OMG SWEET! good luck in your chase. Catch us a monster wedge on film guys!! good luck!!!!
lol a sI type this, im looking for teachers that may get mad cause im in computer class doing this:WOOO!!!
Fortunetly (or unfortunetly depending on who you are :P) I live well to the south of the expected hot zones tomorrow. I live about 60 miles south west of Fort Worth/Dallas. I'm not even in the slight risk zone currently. Just right by it.
Thank you Wes, that is exactly what I was looking for!
I am curious if anyone knows of a place where I can get the GFS model to run in Google Earth. Anyone?
I don't know about Google Earth, but http://weather.cod.edu shows major highways in their regional maps.
Also, does anyone know where I can view the soundings from different places?
Nevermind that last question, I just got my answer
hey guys how do you get the canadian cities on GR3.
finally some thunderstorms in chicago on wednsday night
80% for thunderstorms so that's good
but no super severe weahter. :(
i don't want a tornado close in my area but the next county
if there would be no injuries or death then a tornado not too far would be ok
yeah but at least some T-Storms
Paul, You havent looked at the SPC DAY 3 outlook have you?
Ya really Chicago is in the 45% chance of severe thunderstorms on Thurdsday.
hmm I've always wanted to see chicago.. =)
AHHHHHHHHH!!!!
sorry but im terrified at the moment, im watching this documentary about britains greatest storm and some of the footage is so scary it has to be said.....
We knew nothing when it came, those people who died never stood a chance ......
Hey Skyler, what town you from?
Maybe another Plainfield tornado? Hopefully this time if it happens it stays in a field! I know I am going to be spotting for sure on thursday. Hopefully all the models stay in agreement.
-vincent
romeoville, il
Since he has not posted yet, I guess it's safe to assume that Caleb has fainted at the sight of the SPC outlooks.
lol Heidi..... ill try his sie, he may be on there waiting for us lol ;)
Ya Heidi that could be true.
Man This vid is taking forever to upload!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!
btw my friend in eastern spain has nearly been flushed away with his car in giant floods. he told me some hotels collapsed and some people drowned last friday near javea spain.
My chance of storms tomorrow is down to 30% :(
I really really want some severe weather.
Brady im a little excited about Thursday but im not jumping for joy yet. The temps are going up into the high 60s thursday and im in the slight risk area. Like i said im little excited.
The forecast for Romeoville, IL now shows 90% severe storms on the 7 day for thursday. I am excitedddd!!!!!!!! lol
lol Brady glad you got something on your little venture lol.....cant wait to see what you get
Easy Matt!! Easy!! Don't be creating more laundry for yourself to have to do!! hehe I really hope you get some action!! This is the only site where you can wish big tornadoes and terrible weather to someone and it be a compliment!! Heidi!! I wish you a week of hell!! hehe jk
Hey Reed where do you plane on going for tomorrow i took off work for this and tryin to find out where the hot spots may be.
Hey Gene, Get on MSN Messener when you can,
In case you took me off your list, My address is davidrtex@sbcglobal.net
I need to talk to you about tommorow.
Its so true Brady. There are people out there that hope to death there are no tornadoes and then there is us hoping that there are wedges and EF5'sheheh. And ya its the only place were i can say i hope you get a wedge and not get yelled at or told im crazy.
Me likey the 2 day outlook :D haha
Hey everyone, what's up?
Hey AJ....i think most of us are just staring at our screens mouth wide open at the outlook lol :D
lol that so Brady lol
not much AJ.
gotta go dinners ready
be back later.
AAAAAAAAA!
Looking at the models (thanks for the link, Wes - way better than the one I had been using) and hearing the chatter that's out there regarding this possibly making a push east more quickly than expected, I am starting to get the impression that the storms may come to me. This last system (squall line over the weekend) was forecast to get here about 6 hrs. after it actually did, and that seems to be a pattern lately. So if that happens, I might find myself sitting here ready to redeem myself, seeing as how I did not get a single photograph of last 9/22's supercells and tornados. (cue violins again, please)
I should have gassed up the truck this morning, though, because I'm below a quarter tank and the price jumped from $2.51 to $2.67 cents in one day ... :-/
Hey, why did I write "... $2.67 cents ..." ???
:D
Finally!! ^^
Finally!! ^^
I think Heidi forgot her daily dose of caffiene, so she's missing some things. ;) lol
Wow the wind there Brady lol sounded great...
Heidi if your here i'me very happy this is why
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_1100.gif
The 18z WRF looks INCREDIBLE
I strongly recommend heading to northeast OK/southeast KS Heidi!
That's our target right now Gene...but things could definitely change by tomorrow.
Reed are you gonna be chaseing the tornadoes tomarrow? I will be on thursday because look at this
WOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_1100.gif
Oh and have you seen my site?
Caleb i reckon that to say your happy with the outlook is an understatement lol.....dont blame you being happy either lol
CALEB!!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!! alkjdhfksdjhfklaskjhflasf
Sorry, but excitement just overcame me!! WOOHOO! ;) lol
Josh, Stephenville.
Where can I see the 18z WRF? I can only find the 12z
Caleb, I think Reed can't chase tomorrow because he has a beanbag tossing tournament.
...
...
...
...
OF COURSE THEY'RE CHASING!!!!!!!!!! :D :D :D
My husband has to give geometry tests tomorrow ... There's no way I'd drive over there by myself, so I am going to stay around here, maybe get into MO if that looks better. ... Also, it occurred to me that I do have a responsibility to stay in my TV viewing area to report and document severe weather for the station (duh ... the things that don't occur to you when you're FREAKING OUT at the SPC outlooks! :D)
This weekend there are no geometry tests, though, so maybe that can shape up & we'd be back here in time for regional coverage!
A beanbag tossing tourny? Come on, I could've come up with something better than that! ;) lol
I have crashed from my adrenaline high, AJ, okay?! Give me a break! :P
Anyway guys im out.... gunna get some sleep for tomorrow lol have a good one see ya!
Our station has a new thing called "SevereTrack" that is a compilation of data put into a graphic showing where the best chances of supercells are, and it has a big red blob over us beginning at about 11PM tomorrow night... and through the night. ... :-Q (That's an :-O with the tongue hanging out, too!)
I declare tomorrow AM the inaugural Moderate Risk Tailgate at the Birch street house.
LOL bean beanbag tossing tournament Heidi your crazy
Wellp gonna go play some football
Have fun Caleb!
Just kiddin with ya Heidi! But still, beanbags? What the crap? lol ;) jk
I second that motion Corey! Count me in! Wait, I have school tomorrow..... gosh-dangit!
Anyone know how often the NWS updates their forecasts? They have me at a 30% chance of storms tomorrow. I want to see that number rise!
Wow, that is a good set up for tomorrow. Big outbreaks still happening in October - Awesome. Good luck to all that chase!
Hay - is anyone from Washington. I've been keeping an eye on the models for a while. They all finaly show a fairly good windstorm moving through the area thursday. It shows the remenents of tropical storm Lingling hitting the washington coast with a low at around 975mb - 985mb. Anyways I got my attention on that - not really with this particular event. too much going on!!!
Hey, beanbag tossing tournaments are INTENSE!
I just saw a lady on television whose eyeglasses lenses were two-times the size of her face.
(Oh no! It's happening again!)
the thing is for thursday is in some of the moderate risk area all they are calling for is isolated showers. It probably will change but im thinking about thursday and actually chasing. the thing is i have to work friday morning.
And Reed when and if you guys ever come to ontario i would love to like ride along with you guys if the oppurtunity ever comes.
Joey, being from WA, you don't happen to know Joe Surfer do you?? (That is a serious question, in case you didn't realize it. :)
Ya Joe is MIA right now and we dont know were he has gone to.
Heidi: calm thyself. lol I'll take your word for it on a beanbag tourny...
Whoever is chasing, and happens to swing thru Kansas, take a detour to the GCK, and pick me up. I can miss a day of school for the weather. lol
Joe! Come back to your spot in the computer chair!
Bradys tried to call him a bunch of times and just got his voive mail.
Hmmmm.... the plot thickens....
I bet he's just off on a vacation somewhere away from technology, and we can't reach him. I"m not terribly worried just yet.
no, i don't know Joe Surffer - he lives in Washington? It's funny though we both have the same name and last anitial. Joe S.
i know some sites for all the weather stuff but some of you might know some more so some one tell me a good site with
you know weather stuff
Paul: supercellcrazy.com. One of my favorites, since I know the chasers.
Gotta go guys, catch ya'll later!
Watch this vid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTvQhwta31k&mode=related&search=
Caleb that is pretty funny video.
According to the WRF I live right in the middle of a strip of land that will have little CIN and lots of CAPE tomorrow!
The 18z MesoETA is pushing things further west.
Anyone take a guess at why at 21z, in Enid, the LCL's and LFC's are near each other with 0 CINH, then at 0z, LFC's are raised, while LCL's lowered, taking them further apart, but with more CINH is present now (67.0) or so.
Reed, Joel, anyone??
http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=META&fcsthr=030&STATIONID=KWDG
UUUUMMMM Dick is this what your trying to say?
did'nt get the photo but got what the stuff you said
Ha, that is an excellent photo, Martin is a great photographer. It's crazy to think that that tornado touched down just a few hundred yards in front of us, and the nightmare ensued.
I was just noticing a trend with these skew-t's and wondering what is going on.
Man im thinking tomorrow could be huge. Im saying there is going to be a wedge tomorrow i have this wierd feeling.
Hey Dick are you chasing tomorrow? I hope so!, If any of you end swinging through Central Illinois during this two-day stormfest, you guys should get ahold of me...if it would be alright if i followed you.
Dick u going to be chasing tomorrow or not.
Hey guys whats a good website to view weather models
Weird!! Damn where is Joe??
Hey Brady u ask me like i forget 1 week about if u could possibly help me out with my webite. So im open to your ideas about what i could do to make my website better. And anything i should take out.
Any help would be great.
Man its a quiet one here tonight.
You said Tornado Outbreak last Sunday Possible and NOTHING, what makes you think you are right this time or are you throwing darts?
Yeah it is!! I wouldn't change much Matt!! I don't see anything I'd take out either!! I think it's just a matter of time and retrieving materials now Matt!! I like how it's setup!! It's easy to browse through!! Just worry about getting some pics, vid's and stories!! I think your site will be quite nice with time!!
I think next year when the funds alow me to chase more i will be able to hopefully get my first tornado.
I'm still working on my first!! Just a matter of time for me too!! I guess we just gotta take what we can get!! Like ^^
no darts!! Just beanbags!! hehe
Imgoing to be patient. Im sure Reed has had a ton of busts in his years. But during the winter Im doing to learn a bunch about storm chasing and have some fun next year.
And one more question. would i need a passport to get into the US from Canada. Because if i do im going to do it during the winter.
I'm not sure on that one!??!! I'm pretty sure with my DUI I can't get into Canada!!
Shouldn't the 0z WRF be up by now? How long does it usually take?
Reed, or anyone who know the answer to this please respond.
Where did you get the models, shown on at the top, from?
Hey guys! How's it going? I'm pretty bored and almost got in a fight with my friend, him being the asshole all the time ahh I couldn't take it anymore lol. Well I can't wait to see what you guys bring home on wednesday!
Brady if you ever get into canada, come by!
Hehe!! Will do Kenny!! I've seen Canada 3x but never actually crossed the border!!
Hey guys, back from work! Anything interesting happen while I was gone?
Kenny, I feel the boredom dude. And I've also been in similar situations with people. It's all good in the end though ;)
Since I"m a reporter for the GC High School newspaper, I get a camera tomorrow, just in case things get interesting. lol
People who are asking about models:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
I get to play "intrepid high-school weather reporter" tomorrow, yippee-ki-yay! ;) lol. That hasn't happened verrry often.
I've gotta let other family on the computer, so I"ll catch ya'll later! Peace!
Direct from Svr Studios:
8:10 PM Update
Well, it's Kansas or bust! Probably bust! I have reserved a motel room for late tonight in south-central Nebraska. Will probably roll in about 1:30 am... sleep for 7 hours, and get up to get in position.
Still don't think I will be going all the way to Oklahoma, but you never know! By the way, we have a new main chase vehicle! Will update in the morning...
P.S, It looks like the server has www.severestudios.com banned from the website link for some reason.
i like this site too
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2
Thanks for model links!!
As quoted by KM...
"You said Tornado Outbreak last Sunday Possible and NOTHING, what makes you think you are right this time or are you throwing darts?"
KM... in Reeds defense... and the millions of other weather hobbyist and meteorologist who make predictions that sometimes do not verify. In case you hadn't noticed. Meteorology is not an exact science. You might have overlooked an important word in the prior headliner. The word... POSSIBLE. Possible means just that... it is possible, but it is also possible it won't happen, so it would be silly to assume it WILL happen when you know darn well things can change. We as weather hobbyist and meteorologist can only make a forecast based on available data/guidance as to what is most LIKELY to happen.. that does not mean it WILL happen. And if it doesn't happen it does not make us any more inferior to you or the rest of the general public. The government hires meteorologist because there is a science behind these forecasts... not simply throwing darts. Trust me, if all these people sat in back rooms and threw darts all day, the government wouldn't shell out a cent in wages/salaries.
Again, remember, meteorology is not an EXACT science and you can expect forecasts to be wrong at times. Though from your tone, even when they're right, you'll find something else to complain about. The oldest argument in the book is saying... "oh you said it would bla bla bla last time ... and it didn't happen... what are you.. throwing darts?" haha.. come on. Maybe I should compliment you on holding us in such high regard as to expect us to be right 100% of the time. WOW... if you think we're really that good, then THANKS!!!!!!! WE ROCK!! lol
For one KM...i dont know if your question was answered or if you'll read this. I am an amateur at this...still learning...but usually when the SPC issues a bulletin on their main page...they mean business. which they did to inform the fact that there is a moderate risk for tomorrow. It could be a bust like last sunday...but last sunday was very questionable to begin with because they said that discrete supercells would have to form in front of the squall line or line segments in order for tornadoes to happen. None did so nothing happened. This is more of a "classic" setup as Reed said. I looked at the NWS report for the May 3, 1999 tornado outbreak in OK/KS to see how the SPC handled it before it happened. It started off as a slight risk...became a moderate risk...at about noon that day it became a high risk. It was also a "classic" setup that day. What I am saying is that this could happen again(very unlikely tho)or nothing could happen(also very unlikely)so it will probably fall somewhere towards the middle. I mean...hell well take whatever we can in Oklahoma...KS is murdering us this year by +150 tornadoes!
Ez, where do you see the number of tornadoes by state?
I'm far from a master forecaster, but some developments on the 00z NAM concern me for tomorrow's setup. It appears to dig the trough noticeably more than previous runs, yielding weaker and more meridional flow at the mid-levels over OK and KS. Low-level shear profiles also look quite a bit less jaw-dropping than they did last night or this morning. I'm not ready to call off the whole event for Wednesday by any means, but between this and the fact that we've seen nearly every high-shear setup in the I-35 corridor over the past couple years bust, I may have to ratchet down my excitement a few notches unless things look different again in the morning.
Well put Dean And Ez!! Well put!!
I knew the models would screw everything up again.
I do approve of the new storm motions for tomorrow. They are close to 30 Kts all over OK. Playing NE of that bulge would be the best. Ponca City has the best hodograph of anywhere around but it way off the dryline. I just wish COD would work so we could see this a little better. I noticed the 500 digging to the south more, but that is what caused the better storm motions. Guess we wont really know on this one till tomorrow.
The SPC outlook has me (North Dallas area) in the hatched slight risk area, but the WRF shows almost no precipitation at all in my area. Could someone tell me what they think?
Hey Connor, maybe you should sit back and hope for LP Supercells (hence, "no precipitation!" ;) Brilliant, aren't I? :D
Storms starting to pop in Amarillo area.
Great thinking Heidi! Wes, when you said the 500 is digging further south, does that mean that storms would fire further south? (please say yes... please say yes...)
Connor, I would like to add that you ask some terrific questions. In case you didn't see my comment on the last thread, I really liked the exchange you had going with Wes & Dick last night about LCLs, etc.