News DetailTornadoes possible in western OK this afternoon/evening!
Posted At: October 14, 2007 @ 11:36 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A strong jet streak nosing into western OK late this afternoon and a strong diurnal low-level jet will create conditions favorable for supercells and isolated tornadoes across western and southwestern Oklahoma between 4 and 7 pm today. A strong cold front is currently surging south across the Texas Panhandle, and will be oriented NNE to SSW across western OK by peak heating. This boundary, and a dryline extending southward into northwest Texas, will create the necessary surface convergence for initiation around 4 pm, and a 30-35 knot low-level jet will lead to favorable low-level shear for tornadoes. Our plan is to head west on I-40, and potentially dive south after any discrete storms that develop along or ahead of the cold front/dryline. The tracker should be operational after we head out in a few hours! 
The cold front shows up very well in the RUC forecast CAPE for 00z (below left), as a NNE to SSE boundary to the instability axis from central KS though western OK. Supercell storm motions should be northeasterly, so storms will have the opportunity to move off the cold front and remain discrete. The low-level jet is forecast to be marginally sufficient for tornadoes, with around 30 knots at 850 mb forecast for the entire warm sector (below right).
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for central KS, western OK, and northwest Texas for this afternoon and evening, anticipating the development of supercells along and east of the cold front. I wouldn't be surprised if the tornado probabilities are bumped up to 10% for western/southwestern OK in the next outlook, since the latest RUC forecast is looking increasingly favorable there. Stay tuned for updates!
The cold front shows up very well in the RUC forecast CAPE for 00z (below left), as a NNE to SSE boundary to the instability axis from central KS though western OK. Supercell storm motions should be northeasterly, so storms will have the opportunity to move off the cold front and remain discrete. The low-level jet is forecast to be marginally sufficient for tornadoes, with around 30 knots at 850 mb forecast for the entire warm sector (below right).
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for central KS, western OK, and northwest Texas for this afternoon and evening, anticipating the development of supercells along and east of the cold front. I wouldn't be surprised if the tornado probabilities are bumped up to 10% for western/southwestern OK in the next outlook, since the latest RUC forecast is looking increasingly favorable there. Stay tuned for updates!
Wooo!!! Go get em Reed!!! End that drout today!!! Good luck and stay safe!
ya good luck today guys and bring back some great footage as usual
About time!
Good luck everyone! I can't wait to see what you will bring back!
Statement as of 11:53 AM CDT on October 14, 2007
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 1215 PM CDT
for central Custer County...
At 1151 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing nickel size hail.
This storm was located near Oconto... or about 21 miles south of
Broken Bow... moving northeast at 45 mph.
The severe thunderstorm will be near...
Berwyn... 7 miles southwest of Westerville... 8 miles southeast of
Broken Bow and 8 miles northwest of Ansley by 1215 PM CDT...
At 1152 am CDT... nickel size hail was reported with this storm 5
miles south southeast of Oconto.
This storm has a history of producing large damaging hail. Seek
shelter now inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!
Lat... Lon 4103 9955 4104 9992 4104 9993 4106 9993
4152 9961 4140 9929
time... Mot... loc 1653z 207deg 40kt 4113 9966
Keck
GOOD!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND ECNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141629Z - 141800Z
A SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ROTATING STORMS MOVE NEWD
INTO ECNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...HOWEVER WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ERN CO
WITH THE RUC MODEL ANALYZING A VORTICITY MAX MOVING NEWD INTO FAR
SRN NEB ATTM. THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IN A BAND OF FOCUSED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS EVIDENT ON
THE SRN NEB PROFILER WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
..BROYLES.. 10/14/2007
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
40630064 40160043 40069982 40529848 41439720 42049726
42039832 41279982
Man if i didnt have to work tomorrow i mit have gone down there today. But i have to work tomorrow morning.
Good luck today Reed please end the drought
Reed are you going to be chaseing today?
PEOPE I NEED YOU ON MY BOG AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH
FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS...BUT COULD REMAIN
DISCRETE WITH LESS COMPETITION FOR INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...PLACING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY. STORMS WILL
ALSO BE MOVING AT NEAR 40 MPH...SO WILL TRY TO RAISE AWARENESS AND
STAY OUT AHEAD OF THE EVENT
LOL ! Look's like a fun night !
Jason Young
Oklahoma
Good luck! Go and get one (or maybe more :P) , or just: AAAAAAAAAAAAA ;-)
On Clinton, OK weather radio they talk about a moderate risk area. I don't see this area on the "Day 1 Convective Outlook" by NOAA. I only see the slight risk area? What do they mean?
Norman, OK now has MOD Risk out for the Lawton- W.Falls area now. I dont know why, but They seem to always do the right thing.
So, SPC or not.
WE GOT A MOD RISK! :D
i want to be out there.... i want to be out there lol
me too tim me to
we WILL!!! make it out there someday Matt no worries
Tim check out my blog now
Patience My young freinds!! hehe You will get your chances!! I hope to get mine soon too!! We'll get some good ones when the time comes!!
Good Luck Reed!! Stay safe!! Watch out for idiots on the road!!
lol Hey Brady....hope you get something soon :D i guess this is all just too far away for you then?
New Mescoscale discussion over central KS and NCentral OK....Im heading out shorlty.
Dryline is tightening up in western OK with some cumulus organizing just east of the border. It's looking very interesting in western OK for this afternoon...the front is not surging south as fast, and is becoming oriented more north-south. We're leaving in about 5 minutes for western OK!
Reed are you going to be chaseing?
Good luck Reed. this is going tobe fun to watch. And Caleb yes he is chasing today.
Good luck Reed!
WOW grate LOL watching it could happen tomarrow tornado hitting washington DC good luck reed
Hey Guys. Here is my little risk of tornado thing. the bottoem part of my high risk is pretty close to reeds target area. Anyways click my name to see my outlook. Its not the greatest.
Man!! I hope you guys can score at least some cool pics!!
Good luck to you too Monty!!
Yes Tim!! quite far away!! It would take me all day to drive to OK!! Hopefully next spring I can get a few days off and drive down there!! I'm really hoping for a good SD chase next year!! That's much closer!!hehe
lol Brady....Yeh a lot closer lol..... well youve got the winter to look forward to now lol and yeh i hope next year is good for you :D
Sitting in Norman ? humm!! Straight west , north or south a little ! Mother nature sometimes likes to trick us..
Im out for a bit....will be back in about an hour hope it all goes well see ya!!
we're heading west on I-40...spc is upgrading sw OK to a moderate risk!
The tracker data is being sent to the website but it's not automatically updating...Jason is on it and will have it fixed soon. In the meantime I'll keep posting updates on the blog.
Man im glad i didnt work today and now i get to watch all the fun going on.
Reed pleas get us an EF6 tornado with winds over 319 mph JK JK there will prolly be a EF1 or 2
Well we'll i wait forthings to happen i sure people will start coming in when thing get interesting so for now im going to update my website ill be back later.
Man were is everybody????
Somethings poppin up on radar.... GOOD CHASING!!!!
Statement as of 2:32 PM CDT on October 14, 2007
The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northwestern Custer County in central Nebraska...
south central Blaine County in north central Nebraska...
* until 315 PM CDT.
* At 232 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing nickel size hail. This
storm was located 13 miles south of Dunning... or about 16 miles
north of Arnold... and moving north at 10 mph.
* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
6 miles southeast of Dunning by 315 PM CDT...
This storm has the potential to produce large damaging hail. Seek
shelter now inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!
Lat... Lon 4188 10019 4184 9987 4153 9999 4157 10023
time... Mot... loc 1932z 191deg 10kt 4164 10009
Keck
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD
OF N/S COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK. WITH AIR MASS NOW
MDTLY UNSTABLE AND THE CAP WEAKENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...HALES
A new one
Statement as of 2:52 PM CDT on October 14, 2007
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for western
Kingman and western Reno counties until 345 PM CDT...
At 251 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to
track a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing up to
quarter size hail... and damaging winds up to 60 mph. These storms
were located along a line extending from Cunningham to Nashville...
moving northeast at 55 mph.
Severe thunderstorms will be...
4 miles east of Turon by 300 PM CDT.
Near Plevna by 315 PM CDT.
Near Abbyville by 320 PM CDT.
Near Partridge by 335 PM CDT.
The towns of Penalosa and Langdon are also in the path of this line
of severe thunderstorms.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT Sunday
evening for southeastern Kansas.
Lat... Lon 3738 9847 3782 9849 3816 9847 3816 9797
3742 9838 3736 9842 3737 9845
time... Mot... loc 1952z 204deg 48kt 3768 9841 3761 9834
3745 9838
Bowman
Hi there storm chasing team of Reed, Joel, Dayna, and Ashley. The live tracker still shows you in Norman. Hopefully things will come together for you out there. Drive carefully and keep us posted.
Hi smt! :D I was about to say the same thing about the tracker. I hope Jason can get things squared away before the action starts.
Also, the SPC is still showing the same slight risk area, with no mod. risk indicated yet - strange that they are showing it on the local OK site and not the main SPC overview page. ... I'm a little surprised that the SPC has not issued a tornado watch for western/southwestern OK yet, since it seems like once the storms fire, it may not take very long for a warning to become necessary...
Hey guys im back...
wow things are really starting to get going now, looks as if i got back just in time lol
Ya things are starting to heat up i hope they get something today because we need new video.
OU is the new #4 in the AP & Coaches poll, in case this is news. :D
Yeh big time..... i cant remember who said it but its something like a 114 day drought for tv.net so lets hope today is the day to end all that
Man freewebs is slow today imtrying to update all my website and its so slow right now.
Completely off the subject of weather lol but Heidi who was it who played yeterday in the football..... i remember seeing something like New England but im not sure lol....
New England plays the Dallas Cowboys today i think its just starting. both teams are 5-0 to start the season.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD
OF N/S COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK. WITH AIR MASS NOW
MDTLY UNSTABLE AND THE CAP WEAKENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...HALES
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD
OF N/S COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK. WITH AIR MASS NOW
MDTLY UNSTABLE AND THE CAP WEAKENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL OK/NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 142018Z - 142215Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. A WEATHER
WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING CU FIELD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AS THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA MOVES EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE REGION ARE NEAR 2000
J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS AND CURRENTLY
OBSERVED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.
HOWEVER...LATEST 18Z RUC MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER TIME....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. GIVEN
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT...THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE MODE IS MAINLY A
LINEAR-TYPE SQUALL LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH DISCRETE CELLS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AND DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. A
SPECIAL 19Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS SOME COOLING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
SINCE 12Z...INDICATING THAT THE CAP OVER THE REGION IS DIMINISHING
RATHER QUICKLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS COOLING IN THIS LAYER
CONTINUES FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. ONCE
THE CAP HAS BROKEN...STORMS WILL FORM AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SEVERE OVER TIME AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
It looks like SPC did agree to upgrade the area to MOD RISK:
This was released by the Norman NWS at 2:53 PM CST
"AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL BE IN A REGION WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING...WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOWER-LEVEL WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE
STORMS GET MORE LINEAR AND ELEVATED. THIS MENTIONED AREA WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY...AS THERE WILL BE CONCERN FOR TORNADOES MAINLY WITH
ANY LONG-LIVED AND DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCENARIO
LAID OUT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER GRAPHICS AND OUTLOOK...WHERE PER
COORD WITH SPC UPPED SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA TO
MODERATE RISK. "
Nice that they mention that the linear appearance of the storms we're seeing right now is "expected." I was about to comment on that before but now that it's in the meso. disc. I don't have to. :D
Yeh Matt im watching them now lol just fount it on sky.....
Statement as of 3:27 PM CDT on October 14, 2007
The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Harper County in south central Kansas.
Eastern Kingman County in south central Kansas.
Southwestern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas.
* Until 430 PM CDT.
* At 324 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing up to quarter
size hail... and damaging winds up to 60 mph. This storm was
located near Corwin... or 14 miles southwest of Anthony... and moving
northeast at 50 mph.
* Locations within the warning include...
Anthony... Attica... Cheney... Corwin... Danville... Garden Plain...
Harper... Mt Vernon... Norwich... Rago... Runnymede... Spivey...
Waldron... Murdock... Crystal Springs.
Safety information for this warning follows:
Seek a sturdy shelter and stay away from windows. Avoid using the
telephone or other electrical equipment... while lightning is in the
area.
Lat... Lon 3703 9835 3711 9835 3772 9801 3772 9762
3746 9774 3746 9781 3733 9780 3699 9796
3698 9823
time... Mot... loc 2027z 209deg 44kt 3709 9823
Cox
Reed what are you seeing?
David, could you send the link to where you're getting that info - I'm looking at Norman's NWS site and I am having trouble locating the place where that info is available - there is a LOT of stuff on Norman's site. (Thanks. :) - and I I don't mean just the srh.noaa.gov, but the specific link to the place where you got that - like I said, there is a lot of info to sort through on that site, so it would help...)
Hey guys! Dumb homework is kee[piong me from talking today:(. Anyways, good luck! I'll be watching GR3 all day and tracking anything that pops, and stuff that already popping also.
Mod risk now? sweet! How come they wont update their graphics? They should.
OOOH!! These cells look good!! somethings gonna fire soon!! hehe!! Good luck again everyone!!
Nevermind! I got it on the hazardous outlook icon on the right. I thought it was on the menu on the left! :P
Jonathan, I always, ALWAYS recommend doing weekend homework as soon as possible (Friday!), that way you don't have it gnawing on you all weekend long. :D
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
TORNADO WATCH 704 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OKC009-011-015-017-031-033-039-043-051-055-057-065-067-073-075-
137-141-149-150300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0704.071014T2045Z-071015T0300Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN COMANCHE COTTON
CUSTER DEWEY GRADY
GREER HARMON JACKSON
JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tornado Watch #704
Issued/Updated: Oct 14, 2007 at 2042 UTC
Expires: Oct 15, 2007 at 0300 UTC
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA
TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703...
DISCUSSION...WITH A MDT AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT
WRN OK AND CINH RAPIDLY WEAKENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WRN PORTION OF WATCH. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FORECASTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO INCREASE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LCLS AND SHEAR PROFILES THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT FORMS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP EWD THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD IN STRONG
STEERING FLOW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...HALES
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0704.html (NOAA)
ITS HAPPENING AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Susan and Volker have been waiting around ALL DAY trying to be the first ones to post the tornado watch. I JUST KNOW IT! AAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!! asdfdbngfd;hd
I hope Reed is getting this lol this looks great the cel over KS
Nice somthing is happening...been a while since there has been some good video
Ya i know Heidi..juat this was a busy weekend for me, so I didnt get much time..o well... :P
Heidi you'd better said all night :P it's 11 pm where I live ;-) ... hihi :P just sitting here pushing F5 on the browser *lol*
lol same here Volker....where do you live then??
its 10 o'clock here lol so an hour behind
Heidi you HAVE better said all night :P it's 11 pm where I live ;-) ... hihi :P just sitting here pushing F5 on the browser *lol* - correct version (I hope so)
Tim: Guess it! Guess it! :P
YEP!!hahaha-actually I was quite suprised it hadn't been posted! hahah-my small addition to this day! things are really beginning to pop out there! I hope Reed's family with him took something for nerves!!(in addition to the Depends!!!)
Volker: i guess either amsterdam or germany but i have no idea lol :P
shoot! i forgot to add the absdfkl!!! to the tornado watch when I posted! dang it! my one chance to use it correctly!!lol
ya Reed's got his sister i think with him on this chase.
"The stormchasers are currently in the field tracking a storm.
Click here to view their real-time location and radar overlays.
Auto updating of the chasers position has also been added!!"
It sure has been a long time since we saw that on the site! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :P
there currently in Elk City right now. Thats what the live tracker says anyway
Tim: The second one is correct. Greetings to England
Hello to Germany aswell
I have never seen the trcker working before lol its great :D
Yippee-ki-yay! Go get em guys!
Hey everyone! I've been out all day working and playing, hope I haven't missed too much ;)
some severe storms popping up in KS now..also some rotation. it's just about Go time!
Hey AJ....
I wouldn't say you have missed a lot, its just starting now really lol
Hey AJ. the fun is about to start soon the live tracker is up and running.
They're probably being tempted by that storm just to the north, although I understand their objective to be to wait for the stuff to pop to the south.
Well went out for awhile and took a few pictures but mostly heavy heavy rain with small hail. Still storming here with most of it moving NE over the same area's. Probably some flooding in central KS later today.
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for western
Kingman and Reno counties until 445 PM CDT...
At 415 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to
track a severe thunderstorm capable of producing up to quarter size
hail... and damaging winds up to 60 mph. This storm was located near
Pretty Prairie... moving northeast at 45 mph. Another severe
thunderstorm was just southwest of Arlington.
The severe thunderstorms will be...
near Arlington by 425 PM CDT.
Near South Hutchinson by 435 PM CDT.
Near Hutchinson by 440 PM CDT.
The towns of WillowBrook and Hutchinson Airport are also in the path
of this severe thunderstorm.
If you are in the path of this storm... prepare immediately for
damaging winds... large hail... and deadly cloud to ground lightning.
People outside should move to a shelter... preferably inside a strong
building but away from windows.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT.
Lat... Lon 3805 9840 3817 9835 3816 9821 3815 9820
3815 9814 3816 9812 3817 9776 3738 9821
3737 9846
time... Mot... loc 2118z 203deg 40kt 3783 9803
Darmofal
Some areas are under a tornado watch
Statement as of 4:03 PM CDT on October 14, 2007
Tornado Watch 704 remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for the
following locations
OK
. Oklahoma counties included are
Beckham Blaine Caddo
Canadian Comanche Cotton
Custer Dewey Grady
Greer Harmon Jackson
Jefferson Kingfisher Kiowa
Stephens Tillman Washita
Tracker is just blank right now, with no map- everything else is there except the map, FYI (Jason).
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
425 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
KSC095-155-142145-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-071014T2145Z/
RENO KS-KINGMAN KS-
425 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
KINGMAN AND RENO COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...
AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PARTRIDGE...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF PRETTY PRAIRIE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
NEAR SOUTH HUTCHINSON BY 435 PM CDT.
NEAR HUTCHINSON BY 440 PM CDT.
THE TOWNS OF WILLOWBROOK AND HUTCHINSON AIRPORT ARE ALSO IN THE PATH
OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
LAT...LON 3805 9840 3817 9835 3816 9821 3815 9820
3815 9814 3816 9812 3817 9776 3738 9821
3737 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 203DEG 40KT 3791 9799
$$
ES
Hmm... I like what I see on GR3, in regards to the southern cell. Labels it as a meso :D
This should be interesting...
The cap is starting disapated so im expecting stormsto start to happen pretty soon id say within the hour.
Heidi start the auto-refrsh in a minuet it will appear lol....
AJit looks quite good around KS a few svr warnings out and hail reports lol
Crap! Now there's a meso forming near McPherson. :D
Check out the name of that town-Pretty Prairie.
I've been there Susan... it's only pretty if your a tourist. lol. Not a whole lot to behold.
That cell near McPherson has weak rotation, but it's getting stronger I think.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA
TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703...
DISCUSSION...WITH A MDT AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT
WRN OK AND CINH RAPIDLY WEAKENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY WRN PORTION OF WATCH. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
FORECASTED LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO INCREASE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT
WITH FAVORABLE LOW LCLS AND SHEAR PROFILES THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT FORMS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP EWD THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD IN STRONG
STEERING FLOW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...HALES
Looks like you are right in position. Good luck!!!!
LOL!! WTF!! There's a Minneapolis in KS!! Haha!!
Hi Brady! YEAH! Finally some action!
Brady, sometimes, I will never understand the reasoning behind town names.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
NORTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EASTERN KINGMAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOUTHWESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.
* AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HARPER...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF ANTHONY...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CHENEY...DANVILLE...GARDEN PLAIN...GODDARD...HARPER...MT VERNON...
NORWICH...RAGO...RUNNYMEDE...LAKE AFTON...MURDOCK...CRYSTAL
SPRINGS.
Still no map on the tracker for me.
There is a little bit of stuff popping up well east of this area where the main line is forming, closer to OKC ... hmmm...
People living in McPherson should be watching rotation out their back doors right about now. It's right on top of em!
Heidi hit the auto update and wait 1 minute for an update thats what i did and the map came up.
tracker is working for me now. YAY!
Statement as of 4:40 PM CDT on October 14, 2007
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for McPherson and
eastern Saline counties until 515 PM CDT...
At 434 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists continued to
track a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging hail up to
Golf Ball size... and damaging winds up to 60 mph. This storm was
located near Galva... moving northeast at 40 mph.
The severe thunderstorm will be...
near Gypsum by 505 PM CDT.
The town of Roxbury is also in the path of this severe thunderstorm.
This severe thunderstorm has a history of producing golfball sized
hail. Seek shelter now inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows!
Lat... Lon 3851 9736 3817 9762 3817 9789 3896 9743
3896 9737
time... Mot... loc 2139z 208deg 38kt 3846 9756
Es
Yeah, I had done that but it took about 10 minutes before it worked for me! weird, huh? :D
This is looking great..... how do you spot rotation though im stuck on that??
Theres a program called GR3 that most people have here and it tells you if there is rotation in a storm.
Tim, your using GR3, right?
Trackers working for me!! It's nice to see that icon move from Norman!! hehe
Golfball size hail-Brady! Don't you have something on your site about golfball size hail?? This would've been your chance!lol!!!
To spot rotation the "old-fashioned way", without clicking anything on GR3, you look for the part of the cell where it starts to wrap up itself, or start to form a hook. Usually, it's on the backside of the cell.
Yeh AJ im using gr3
Joe Surfer said this a long time ago
Its seems only fair, if tornadoes launch golf ball sized hail at you why not launch hail sized golf balls back at it.
its something like that
And were is Joe
Okay Tim, here ya go: go to your menu bar, click on Products, and then on Storm Attributes. It will label significant rotation, stronger parts of the cell, etc.
Brady it hasnt moved since i found this site.
Stronger rotation to the SW of Wichita... even more so than the ones near McPherson... crap. lol
Where is Joe?...this is the question everyone is asking for a long time... lol
Thanks AJ yeh i got it now lol :D .... just to make sure i gotit lol is there some just north of Galva
his last post was 2 weeks ago so i dont know.
Here you can see the moderate risk area:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=2
Good night and stay safe (better safe than sorry)!
it sucks things are heating up and my dinner is almost ready AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
but its just burgers and salad so ill be quick putting that down.
Directly north of Galva, yes. The pink-shaded part of the cell (the part where 3" hail was recorded) just rolled over the town :O
That's what it was! It does seem strange without Mr Joe Surfer himself! Also-when I checked Live Tracker and it said they were on the move-the little car needs a HUGE antenna or a radar dish on it!lol!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
More mesos spotted south of Hutchinson, along with the other 2!! alksjhfashf
There's sirens on a hair trigger somewhere, I know it.
Ah cool lol thanks alot :D
Yeah!! I took that one from Joe!! He said I could!! That was great!! I haven't seen good hail in a while!! I used to have pics of some stones a lil bigger than marbles, but I stupidly deleted them with about 1600 other good pic's!! =(
Tim, are you using the base velocity scan and/or the SRV1 ?? If not, go to "products" and then check one or both of those. The higher the number (SRV1, SRV2, etc.), the higher up in the storm it is scanning. ... Therefore, to see low-level rotation, you want to look at BV1 or SRV1 (assuming you're not color blind, that is!). When you see red and green right next to each other over cells that are indicated on CR248, for example, that is a good indication that there is rotation occurring. You can also make sure that your icons for mesocyclones, TVS, etc. are checked (on the right hand side of the screen). Those are not always reliable. Also, you can see rotation by "polling". Click on the tab that looks like a stack of papers (under "view") and it will begin to archive. After a minute or so, you can click the "play" button. If rotation is happening, it should be evident when you put it into motion this way.
As AJ said, sometimes there is a hook evident, but that's not always easy to see. Sometimes it is horribly obvious (like if it's on a town), as if you know you are watching an F-3+ storm. If that happens, you'll know it and will not soon forget what it looks like! =-O
I know that's a lot of info, but if you get the hang of that, you're pretty much set with this program. :)
I got a find GRLevel3 somewhere... Do someone knows where I can get it?
My GR trail period ended and my parents wont let me spend $80 to buy it. But one day ill buy it.
Caro: grlevel.com
My live tracker says there stopped but when i refresh the page it says that there moving and the update time changes but as soon as the first update finishes it goes back to stopped in the prevoius location.
the live tracker is blank
Matt, what is your web address again? Send me a link & I'll send you a "comment" real quick.
Hey everybody. They're talking about some interesting weather for North Texas hear as of tomorrow. Got my interest going now, so i've been starting to follow this system already and realizeing what it's doing in OK there. Wow, looking at the radar, alot of action already. I'm goign to keeping my eye on this stuff off and on through out the night if possible. They're talking about a possibility of the thunderstorms here of being strong to severe. but then I notice the chance of what OK is having and i'm like dang. Wonder what's heading for Texas. That would be such a rush to be out there in the feilds following the storms.
Thanks AJ!
...but grlevel.com is not working...
Hmmm.... interesting Caro... I don't know what's up with that. lol. Sorry.
It's only reading 2 mesos now, one in OK near Reed and company, and the other just to the south of Garden Plain and Goddard.
Well some interesting storms going on here. There has been some rotation but no warning.....Some hail dime size I would say and certainly some lighting and loud thunder. Probably raining about 1" an hour at least.
What's GR?.......ground radar?
Here's some pictures I took this summer of Three thunderstorms...
http://nguyoto.cachette.com/thumbnails.php?album=33
Thanks anyway AJ!
The tracker's showing me they're south of Elk City!! I think it's working for me!! I'm using firefox if that has anything to do with it?? I doubt it though!! GR3 is worth every penny!! hehe I really wanted something like this for watching weather when I'm at sea!!
The tracker's showing me they're south of Elk City!! I think it's working for me!! I'm using firefox if that has anything to do with it?? I doubt it though!! GR3 is worth every penny!! hehe I really wanted something like this for watching weather when I'm at sea!!
Heidi click my name for my web site.
Sorry it took so long i has having dinner.