News DetailTornado Outbreak possible this Sunday
Posted At: October 12, 2007 @ 11:26 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A classic dryline supercell setup is forecast for Sunday by both the WRF and the GFS models, with 2000+ J/kg CAPE and 200+ 0-1 km helicity along a 100 km wide path east of the dryline from western OK into central KS by 00z Monday (Sunday evening). In addition to strong convergence along the dryline, an upper-level jet streak will also aid in convective initiation Sunday afternoon from central KS south to western OK. We will definitely be chasing this event, so stay tuned for continuous updates! We'll also have the live tracker up and running.
Calendar
Categories
Its gonna be one heck of a day if it pans out. Good thing I got my paycheck last night because I am gonna need the gas money. Hopefully the next few days go by faster than the last few I have because i cant wait anymore for this system. The GFS and WRF are agreeing pretty good on this setup.
Thanks for the update Reed. I will also be out chasing but won't have active radar in the car. So I will have someone at home giving me updates. If I get to an area you are in I will try and introduce myself and meet you which would be cool. I sure hope we see something on Sunday for sure :)
Sounds great!!!
Sounds great!!!
Hey guys.....whats up??
cool looking good for sunday then i hope it goes well for you all!!
Hey Reed great to here that you will be chasing this and fnatastic that you will have the live tracker up and running :D
I'll refer that there recent model run image, to the image that Dick McGowan posted on the last blog, and say that it is very interesting.
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y230/DickTwister/comparison.jpg(or click my name)
I believe that this is almost the exact same set up that occured on 10-9-2001, By this i mean that i believe it was a dryline set up, only thing different about this one is that the LLJ may enhance this, and the locations of the best instability/helicity are just a bit north of the storm report pic.
I hope everyone catches my drift, with this. Also, i should be around for most/all of the this even duration(online), so any chasers having problems with there net/gps, or chasers who do not have that set up, can contact me for updates at 309-360-7489.
Sounds great! Maybe I can put my new Delorme maps to use here in a couple of days?! AND, maybe maybe maybe maybe maybe something is happening here in AR for Monday??? (Did I emphasize MAYBE enough?!?!!)
Just wondering what is an LLJ please lol?
Hey Heidi, i hope something comes over your way then! even if it is a slim chance
Tim the LLJ stands for Low Level Jet, The LLJ generally strengthens as Di-Urinal heating is lost.
Basically the LLJ strenghthens as the sunsets and heating is lost...The LLJ is a big cause of strong to severe storms that occur overnight, and also play a big part in the Greensburg Tornado Event earlier this year i believe.
Ah thank you Ben :D
Ben I may take you up on being able to call you. I won't be setup yet for radar in my vehicle and it will be nice to call you vs. the wife who doesn't want me chasing to begin with but also doesn't know much about weather. I certainly will be out chasing on Sunday in Central Kansas.
Monty that is fine, i can totally i agree about not wanting to call the wife, who knows little about storm properties,and doesnt want you chasing. I've kept my schedule open for the weekend because i know that this may be the last set up of the year, and i want to be home/around to monitor it.
If you get out before initiation, i'll even help you choose the best areas for iniation, using the SPC's Mesoanalysis under forecast tools. I'll be prepared with google map open, to try n guide you street by street toward the storms. I've done this a few times. lol
Ya ben im going to do the same thing just for the heck of it ito see how close i actually get.
lol Matt hope ya do well then...
Thanks Ben the help will be great on the road. I do have topo maps of KS with country roads but getting live help is always the best :)
I too will be headed out with a friend. Looks like we will take a gamble on the dryline and were hoping that the activity from Sat/possibly early sunday will leave us with an OFB to play with. Our biggest concern for C/NC KS attm is the amount of cloud cover left behind by the mcs. If we dont get enough heating north of Hwy 54 we will probley play the OK/KS Border. GL to all who venture out again and god speed ;)
thats awsome where is it heading and is it chicago or somewhere close to Chicago ?
some one answer me please
I know Sunday is looking like the better day, but if for some reason storms get going on Saturday, they will be quite impressive. Why is no one talking about Saturday? In NW Kansas the helicity is going to be ridiculous (similar to March 28 of this year). Forecast soundings are showing great low level hodographs, adequate cape values and decent lapse rates. If the cap breaks tomorrow, people will remember Saturday for a long time.
"In addition to strong convergence along the dryline, an upper-level jet streak will also aid in convective initiation Sunday afternoon from central KS south to western OK..."
Central Kansas to western Oklahoma is pretty far from Chicago, Paul, so my guess is that you're safe. :)
Brandon I agree Saturday should also turn up some interesting storms but I am probably only going to get to do it one day so I am picking Sunday. If I'm able to go out on Saturday I may venture out depending on how far I have to drive.
I will be happy as long as we get at least one good chase day out of the two. But I'm afraid that maybe I'm missing something about Saturday that other people aren't. I guess Sunday is just looking like the more sure bet since the cap will be weaker and better forcing will be present. But I'm itchin to go chase and I have nothing better to do tomorrow. :)
lol this is great to hear you lot saying saturday is going to be good, just a shame im 6 hours ahead of you so that measn i will probably miss out on most of the cation but have to wait all day before anything gets going :(
Nice web site, Mat.
You and I (if you remember, I live in Beeton), just live in the wrong place for good storm chasing, eh?
Mind you, I remember the Barrie tornadoes, when IIRC between 7 and 13 tornadoes swept through the area. But that was a very long time ago.
Environment Canada has a featured tornado report for this area. It describes a tornado from 1998!
This time of year isnt great. Its to damn cold here right now. 39F when i left to go to work this morrning. Man I hope we have a good winter and Im not sure if Reed or anybody answered this question but would i get lake enhanced snow because im basicly got them all around me.
Tom i wasnt a thought in my dads pants when the Barrie tornado outbreak happened. But i have a book on it and been reading about it. The tornado that came through Tottenham was basicly on the 3rd Line(North or south of it im not sure) Well my house is on the 4th Line in Tottenham. But my house didnt exist in 85 and well either did i so ya.
Everyone on tv.net seems to be pretty young. Y'all make me feel v..e..r..y old.
85? I graduated from high school in 85. And I was programming on my Commodore 64. And didn't even have an e-mail address, but I was sysop on a BBS with full 300 baud dial-up. And had to talk 15 miles to school in my bare feet through snow drifts so high my neighbour's CB radio antenna was buried.... :-)
its quiet once again today.....i wonder where everyone is??
i wonder if we will see anything here int he dallas area i know this morning they were talking about sever storms sunday night and in to monday but they didnt say anything about how bad any idea on how bad it may get cause im looking at chasing.
If I get first snowfall, actual snowfall that last's for atleast a day, Reed has to come visit me next summer when he comes up here in Canada, AND, People who betted money give it to me :)
Hey everyone! What's going on?
I like the forecast for Kansas the next couple of days :D Makes me think about getting the Dodge ready, just in case... ;)
Man Im tired tonight. worked this morning and come home and have tp update 3 websites still on the first.
As soon as i say that people start to talk lol...
anyway guys im out....get some sleep for tomorrow lol have a good one see ya!!
Hey AJ hows it going. Good luck if you deside to chase Sunday.
Things are very cold were i am. 39F this morning.
Hey Matt! Not bad today, it's Friday thankfully :) Here's something interesting...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT
* AT 511 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MINNEAPOLIS...OR ABOUT 19 MILES NORTH OF
SALINA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WELLS...
SOUTH SIDE OF MINNEAPOLIS...
LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING.
Does that affect you in anyway AJ?
Also tropical depression Fifteen has develpoed in the Atlantic. Doesnt look like it with do much.
Not in the slightest. lol. I live about 300 miles from that storm, in the SW part of the state. If anything, what I could see will develop to my west, and move east.
Oh Ok. i was going to say if it has close to you maybe ou should chase it. but ya thats a long drive.
haha. No kidding! Course, I have driven all the way to South Dakota just to see pretty dying storm clouds though... that made me rather mad. ;)
Man the farthest ive ever done is in london one day. Which is about 2.5 hour drive and the storm was garbage. So the drive back wasnt fun.
Yeah... for the professional, busts are more common, so they're used to it. For amatuers like me, it pisses you off! haha.
Hey, I have to get to work here in a bit, so I'll talk to ya later. See ya!
Hey guys!! I read a lil above, but I'm too lazy to read it all so what did I miss??
Ben... Did I see ya offering nowcasting help?? That's mighty nice of ya to take over the Joe Surfer role in his temp absence!! He was great!! I don't have any mobile Inet so he helped a lot!! + he kept me updated with here!! Even if I had Inet on the road it's still hard and not recommended to look at a laptop while driving 80+ on I-35!! cell phone is bad enough!!
TORNADO POSSIBIBLE SUNDAY???? COOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!
Busts REALLY suck for folks like me who are on a quset for their first hose!! =( especially when it wrecks a chance of 1 last chase for the season!! And your stuck with pic's of half ass convection!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
That was supposed to be QUEST!! I'm on a Quest for my first tube!! With a lil extra luck a wedge that tears the hell outta this town!!
can someone please tell me if this storm system is heading towards chicago????????????
i'm almost 14 and want to see if some severe weather heading towards chicago or somewhere close
if not then just hoping for some rain
hey guys whats going on???
Paul if your talking about Sunday I dont think yoou will see anything from it. Maybe geting something early the next morning but that highly unlikely. The main storms will be in OK/KS area so i think your clear of any of this on Sunday. But dont take my word for it imnew at this stuff.
Hey Matt!! How are tings for The Ontario Storm Chaser?? There was some cool looking clouds here today!! nothing heavy, just cool looking with the cold sky!! What's the outlook in your area??
RAIN, COLD.
Its going to rain for the better part of next week put im not putting any money on it happening.
39F when i left for work this morning. Its 41F right now.
Sorry Paul!! looks like the fall has it's grasp on us pretty good! I'm in Duluth MN. I think we're outta the game til next season, but I've been wrong before!! If anything comes your way, let us know!!
Hehe!! I don't mean to 1up ya ( actually 4 down ya) But I had 35 on my way to work!! hehe I'm withya now @ 41 with no wind!! beautiful Minny night!! the sky is peaceful!! It has a look that is different in the summer!! The cold is Here!!!!!!!
Ya Paul its to cold for anything. But of course it was 40C up here on Monday so anything can happen.
Man im gassed come home from work and have to update 3 websites and soon to be 4.
Hey Brady I was wondering that if i would get Lake in enhanced snow. Because im like 3 hours from huron 1 hour from ontario and probably 2 hours to erie. just wondering.
Hey Brandon...tomorrow looks interesting too up in northwest KS southwest NE...but the cap and moisture are definitely a concern. Sunday looks more like a sure thing, with a large uncapped region east of the dryline.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA IT'S HAPPENING!
Somebody sounds excited. uuummmmmm
I shot me my first grouse of the season!! ^^ I haven't been bird hunting in 3years!! It was great! I took a shot at another with my bro's .45 kimber with a laser!! hehe That was a new experience!! Never shot at game with a laser before and I don't know if I wanna again!!hehe
I thought about this today. You know what would be a shit video game. Is a storm chasing video game. I think that wouldbe a sick video game what do you think.
Reed, isn't your sister there this weekend? If so, is she going AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA too?!?!
Brady, nice going on the grouse. The first time I ever heard one in the woods, I thought I must have been having a heart attack - I was like 7 or 8 at the time!! :D
Matt I am no weather pro, but I would say with the right winds and flow I don't see why not, however I've noticed lake effect snows can be very tight to the lake!! The Twin Cities would probably never get lake effect snow which is only about 160mi from here! but eastward of the great lakes could be different!!
Hey i have never been on here before a tornado outbreak but does Reed always get this excited.
I mentioned it to a buddy of mine who's going to school to do that stuff Matt!! Even a 8bit nintendo like game would be awesome!! Think of ideas I can give him!!
Haha!! Heidi!! I have to check my shorts every time I jump one!! hehe They are everywhere this season!! =) I tried taking some pics of one last week (alive) but they just didn't come out!! =( too dark! so then I tried to shoot it but I had crappy ammo and only a .22 revolver!!hehe
Does Reed get this excited!! lol you aint seen nothing yet!! hehe
I just thought about it today at work. But i think it could be helpfulin some ways. Not just for the heck of it game. It could help the average storm chaser to be in the right position to get the best possible view of the tornado. Which Reed seems to make that look easy everytime he chases.
Anyways im out for the night talk to ya guys tomorrow
That's cuz Reed hasn't made it my way yet!! Southern MN and northern MN are completely different!! Here you have to kiss the tornado if ya wanna see it!!
And I know Reed knows that!! lol
Hey guys! Wassup? Hope ya get some awesome weather to chase this weekend, Reed! End this 113 day drought for us, please!:P
Jon
Ditto on the chase for sunday!! I cannot wait!! Blew the dust off all the equipment, haven't been on a good chase since june.
Reed where are you going to be posted up to watch the convection initiate. You gonna hang out it Norman or head NW
Hell if this s$%t holds, I might hit the road!! I doubt it though, kinda broke!! I should have time to watch GR3 Sunday, so if anyone needs a nowcaster or any help, let me know!! It's better than chasing blind!!( been there) I can call or whatever, I have a good cell plan!!
So by what I've heard sunday is supposed to be really good? Finally a chase where a cap wont be a problem? Lets hope so!
OOOH!! 35 here!! 4 degrees warmer by da lake!! It keeps the beer cold!! hehe
thank goodness it ain't that cold here right now. I dont need a reminder from mother nature that even though 35 is cold, what we get in January...sometimes -40 or -45.....is a LOT colder :P
lol enjoy that cold beer brady! :P
congrats on the grouse Brady! The 00z models look even better on Sunday...it's going to be huge from western KS into western OK..
We'll wait a few more runs to finalize our target. My sister and cousin are in for their first tornadoes!
I'll have one for you Jonathan!! hehe!! here's a pic I took on my way to work this morning!!
That's awesome Reed!! keep em safe, I'm sure you will!!
Thanx Reed!! 4 more and I'll have a good meal!! that one was quite plump compared to last time their cycle was up!! Scroony birds then!! Good luck to everyone chasing!! stay safe!!
I'm great at making up words!! scroony!! lol
nice pic brady! was that pic in response to my site? im a bit confused. o well! making up words is fun! my word that I've used for a while is hoobla....no meaning..just hoobla! lol
Also, I'm trying to get it setup so I got live radar from GR3 on my site through an FTP server. So far no luck but I will not give up!
....yet :P
Geez, that's so cool how things worked out for your family's visit! =D Hopefully they don't end up traumatized by tornado-overload! (Or maybe that would be fine too?! ;)
no!! I just posted it cuz I just uploaded it!! you mean the pic of the sky right?? I took that on my way to work this/ yesterday morning!! the sky has looked awesome here!!
I have your site bookmarked right next o Tim, Matt, Caleb, and Kenny's sites!!
Ya you're right Heidi.......imagine the looks on their faces when Reed gets them all within 300 yards of a tornado! He'd be the only one laughing...everyone else terrified. :P
ok brady i understand now :P:P:P
just a bit out of it today :)
It'll be okay. I'm pretty sure he packs Depends in their TIV. It was, of course, originally my idea, though.
:D
haha heidi...yes it was. :P It's a good idea for every chaser and whoever comes along to pack depends....just in case :P
Hey Heidi!! How's things?? Still blank on my end!!
I'm drinkin and blogging again!! sry!! hehe I really hope you can score some pics this weekend!! at least some more mammatus sunsets!!
I am divising a plan. My plan so far is to get a photo of a tornado soon, and in the photo I will also appear, and will be wearing my overalls and a bonnet - a Little House on the Prairie style one, too. It hangs on a hook by the back door, just in case. And I'll have my NOAA or SKYWARN T-shirt under the overalls, so people will know that I'm legit. And then I will be ON TEE VEE and, as a result, people the world over will forever after believe that everyone in Arkansas dresses that way all the time.
I have had caffeine too late at night and am up past my bedtime. See what happens??? :D
HAHA!! Well... We all know Heidi's Tornado fetish!!
Mine is just to film one throwing trees everywhere!! I don't wanna see people hurt. Or to chase that Lake Superior spout and to toss Reed into it!! lol he's the only one I know with the tools to do it!! hehe
Copyright this one!! perfect name for your next DVD Reed!! "Under The Convection... And In The Bubble!!"
Sounds like an instant classic, Brady. You will of course want 10% for the idea! :D
And it ain't no fetish, undrestand. I gots tuh repersent my peeps in true fashion (so to speak).
So when I get mine, I need to stand next to it with a blaze orange cap and a vikings shirt!! holding a lieny!! haha
wot are ya on 'bout heidi ;)
so I guess its happening...cnn international was already saying its gonna happen but what do they know :P
Oh yaaa!! it's gonna b a lil windy der eh!! yaaa!!
I don't need 10%!! Reed asked me a question about a pic of mine from " under the convection" and it stuck in my head!! Reed it's yours if you want it!! hehe I thought it sounded great for a title!!
Hey Reed I was thinking about finding a place tomorrow night really late and then posting up there? where do you think would be good considering the latest models?
Hey guys! What's going on?
I've never doubted our high school football, and I will continue to do so... our rival game against Dodge City, we kick their ass: 42-28. We've kept the hatchet for 13 years now... :D
There is no way this will bust completely!! I would like to see a 30% box, but how the 3days are so close! That's my best forecasting!! If I can work some magic which I'm sure I can't... I'll fly down that ol I-35 so fast!!
Hedll ya!!! GO BUFFS!!!! HOOOOOO!!!!!
HEHE!!!! That shoulda been Hell Yeah!!
lol. Yeah, there's parties all over town tonite... but oh well. I like having my own party, at home, on the computer, on TV.net ;)
If something interesting comes up tomorrow, I'll try to get on it like a bug to a stink.
It's great hanging here!! It's not your fault your weather smart and you gotta hang with the big boyz!! And realize that s#@t might hit the fan down there!!
I think Heidi you need an armadillo in there somewhere. Holding onto it by the tail to throw to the tornado as a sacrifice? something like that?lol
there might not be a dodge city anymore after sunday....haha just kiddin but man oh man i am ready for sunday...im studying all night tonight to get ready for my test monday so i can have sunday free
Heidi!! You and the Hubby should plan your next summer trip to Isle Royale!!! No Armadillo's and even better... NO DEER!! However there is lotsa Moose and Wolves!! And Seagulls!! (the Armadillo of the north)!!
Dodge will suck it up and get over it. lol
Ez what's up? I think I missed something... haha
I like Susan's idea! Heidi would love that I think ;)
you were talking about dodge city, ks right? dodge city is always under some sort of tornado warning when i'm in that area chasing
Blahhhh I'm soooooooo bored. What's up guys. I was workin out at YMCA couple hours ago and im beat lol. Well! This week is gunna be warm here! I'm pretty excited but I doubt that any storms would form here. If any chance givin, 0.5 is the highest!
Anyone know how to make 3D stuff in photoshop? Like Low's and stuff for maps?
I agree!! if you sacrifice an armadillo, I'll sacrifice a seagull!! hehe!!
I'm itching for winter to come! 14 Day Trend shows snow for the 26th! The day of my school dance haha! Well if it does snow, I WILL get pictures or video.
Ah yeah... Dodge is just enough east to where they get a lot more action sometimes then Garden City or Scott City, but oh well. They still suck at football. ;)
If you guys are sacrificing those animals, I'll make my contribution a prairie dog! grr... I keel dem. haha
spc says day 2 conv outlook 30%!!!!!!!! right through n central ok through central ks!!!! hallelujah!!!
:D:D:D I love it! I'll defenitely be on the lookout now!
I"m out for the nite guys, but I'll be ready tomorrow to leave in a moment's notice, if I have to ;)
Gnite, and peace!
lol check out the frensh urban olympics. click name and go urban!
I am really liking the 3-day outlook. WHOOOOOOOOO Boy, better git my bonnet warshed and pressed & maybe even clean my overalls. HEEEEEWWWWWW Dawg! If I had SOUND on that thar video recordin machine, I'd take care & git me some true hill folk classics ready to have a blarin in the background! OH PLAY ME SOME MOUNTAIN MUSIC, LIKE GRANDMA AND GRANDPA USED TO PLAY... Yeah-hoo!
Looks like both the GFS and the NAM are starting to come together with this system. Over the last couple of days the NAM has been taking more of a conservative approach with this system but with this mornings run the NAM is the more aggresive model. It has the low in SW KS at 00Z Sunday(7pm CST) instead of NC KS and at 999mb instead of 1006mb. Also on both models the 850mb dont seem to be veering as they where on yesterdays run. Im starting to think that OK could make up for their lack of tornadoes tommorow if the NAM sticks to what its showing right now. As of now me and Mike Gribble will probley still stick head out somewhere between Woodard, OK and Great Bend, KS but if we dont get enough heating we might have to play the dryline in W/SW OK.
Hey guys....whats up??
this weekend is looking really good.....cant twait to see what happens.
It looked this morning when i checked the SPC's outlook for today as if something could grow to the north of OK....
Heidi..... Sheer genius.
hahahaha
Looks like you guys will have fun! It's going to be warm here again this weekend like last weekend, exact same temps! 15C saturday, 18-22C sunday!
haha. Nice one Strike ;)
Hey guys! I"ll be off and on, keeping updated as the day goes on. I have some of last nite's goo hanging around in the eastern part of the state, it shouldn't be a big deal today...
Later!
The cell over KS at the moment is growing rapidly....hail reports are coming from it and just to the east of it a MD has come into effect
YES!!!! Freezing rain chance for me in 2 weeks, I know its long ways away, but I still hope it happens!!!!
Cors, that was pretty hilarious. I liked the "javelin" one, but I have to say that I'd be pretty mad if someone did that to me!
Reed you guys chasing today at all? (Saturday)
RUC wants to fire a storm in the OK panhandle while it's still daylight. Would be a shame to miss it, lol. Plus it's really not that far of a drive for a bust :)
Just curious.
Who is off out today if there not out already?
thanks Matt and Brady MN
i'm just hoping to go after something somthing worth driving for thats not too far
cause my dad hates driving a lot but still i have some algebra homework to work on anyway