News DetailLake enhanced rain in the Michigan Upper Peninsula!
Posted At: October 10, 2007 @ 10:47 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
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The yoopers are getting soaked!! yeah Reed!! Another 10degrees and the snowbelt would be snowy!! hehe It finally cleared up here!! only 41 with a nnw wind at 16mph!! gusts to 32!! I can hardly wait to get some lake effect shots for yall!!! Maybe even a vid of the 12footers pounding the piers!!
Yeah Brady that would be huge...I'm obsessed with lake effect snow.
I love the big flakes!! sometimes they're like the size of nickels!! It really makes winter enjoyable!! I think the lake is a lil warmer than usual too!! Last year I was reading 71 degrees at the surface 3miles out in August!! I'm sure it was much colder down deeper, but still!! 70's is unheard of!! I'm used to seeing low 60's in the heat of summer!!
hey guys what's up??
just wondering what is the lake effect i dont really know? sorry for another question
Reed do you ever look at the Canadian GEM model?
It's saying not much happening for OK on the weekend, but a tropical storm for New Orleans Tuesday morning-ish?
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html
Brady is it still windy there? Man I've had enough wind already. Blew all night here and still going.
It did blow a lot of the leaves OUT of the yard tho :)
Hey Tim I believe it is called lake effect snow because the storms will pick up more moisture over the lake and then it snows allot more once it hits land. Just my thoughts :)
"Cold winds in the winter typically prevail from the northwest in the Great Lakes region, producing the most dramatic lake-effect snow falls on the east to south shores of the Great Lakes. This lake-effect produces a significant difference between the snow fall on the eastern and western shores of the Great Lakes.
Lake-effect snows on the Tug Hill Plateau (east of Lake Ontario) frequently set the daily records for snowfall in the United States.
Another snowbelt is in the Upper Peninsula (UP) of Michigan, near the cities of Houghton, Marquette, and Munising. These areas frequently average over 200 inches (508 cm), and may receive close to 300 inches (762 cm) of snow a year (for comparison, on the western shore, Duluth, Minnesota receives only 77 inches (196 cm)).
In February, 2007, a prolonged lake-effect snow event left over 100 inches (254 cm) of snow on the Tug Hill Plateau."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_effect
Thanks Monty and PB
Boy you guys got your facts right!! Usually the U.P. (upper penninsula of Michigan) gets a ton more than we do in Duluth. However sometimes that " lake effect" Comes in here on a good Northeast wind and snows can pile up fast!!
Also During those events, Snow totals are usually greater inland away from the lake a few miles and quite often only rain will be the case right on the shore!! It makes this time of year quite interesting!!
Brady, ive just watched a few vids on youtube from Duluth in snow storms, that looks intense, you must get a wind chill factor there i guess, quite a big one?
How would you like to be living in western New York about right now?? Sure, it's probably amazing with fall colors, but somewhere in the back of your mind there would have to be the memories of last year's 15-foot snowfall ... which sounds like a real possibility again and again, as long as those lakes are staying that warm that long!
Historic Lake Effect Snow Storm of October 12-13, 2006
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/storm101206.html
Maximum Snowfall: Lake Erie 24" (Depew, Alden)
Duration: 16 hours +/-
Prime Feature: Dramatic crippling out of season event. Unprecedented meteorological parameters.
.....all snow melted within about 48 to 60 hours with little flooding.
And also to make it more interesting, Duluth is built on a hill!! The lake surface is at about 600t above sea level, where My old house was around 1300t just 3mi away!! that also can make a big difference in snowall amounts just in town!!
The North shore of Lake Superior is primarily cliffs and rocks and the south shore is mostly sand! You can noticed distinct mudlines in the water in the summer depending on weather!! At a trolling speed about 1 to 2kts the clarity of the water can change so dramatically whithin 50t a Downrigger weight! 5ft deep won't be visible at all and then you would be able to slightly see it at 20t!! if it's straight below the boat!!
Ah.. Yes Tim!! Wind chill factor means a lot here!! right now it isn't much difference with a nnw wind!! At the Duluth airport the temp is 46 with a 9mi wind!! Wind chill is 39f!!
But near at the lake shore it is 47.4 f a 4mmph wind and a wind chill of 44f!! not a big factor today at all!!
Doen't sound big today then lol but yeh must be freezing during the winter.
fog will build up here overnight the temp if 50 degrees f and the dewpoint is 50 degrees f, last time we had fog most of the country grownded to a hault :P
This is a cool satellite shot of lake effect snow:
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0412/lakeeffect_seawifs_big.jpg
That's awesome PB!! You can see how Michigan gets there fair share o the snowfall!! 247
Hey guys anything going on here right now(weather)???
Hey Matt, not much really from what i can see, maybe something is happening around some of the otheres houses......
fog is starting to build up here but that's about all really...
hey guys whats going on?
Interesting!!!
My Website Link click my name
Tim can't find it
Its been raining off and on all day today. Its going to be the same the next 3 days.
And i gotta type my website on like wordpador some becaause im tired of typing it in everytime.heheh
Caleb that's not me lol that's someone else lol
Man i cant wait until saturday and sunday if i didnt have to work both days i would be down there on the weekend.
sorry was spose to say: Caleb that isn't me, its someone else who posted that link lol but who ever's it is, it is good
Gotta go tim.... BRB hungry you can blog on my site if you want
hey guys.....sos just had to go talk to my parents for a bit lol
Matt is that what he or she is lol??
WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????????????????
a spammer lol??
oh ya that is what that means haha sorry lol. Ya a person that comes toyour site witht the perpose of causing trouble. I dont know if that the right definition but its mine.
Hey guys! What's up? Hopefully I didn't miss much.
It's warmer again today! Where the heck did fall go?!?! aldlflakjfs
well aint gunna work then lol just ignore it
hey AJ.... i cant wait for summer lol hate winter
You hate winter. I love winter. But i also cant wait for spring because i planning to head down before i start work again to chase some southern storms while its still cold here. Aj its 11C right now in Ontario.
I"m not very good at math, so if anyone wants to convert Celcius to Fahrenheit, I"ll appreciate it ;)
I should try to chase a snowstorm sometime... even though wenever get them here. lol
Off the topof my head i think 11C is 54F i think
AJ.....i think, well this is for a rough estomate you double the celcius and add 28 and the reverse for fahrenheit to celcius, i think lol
Ok i was off by 3 degrees its 51F
haha. Thanks, I'll remember that next time!
It's 70 here! What happened to fall and 50's?! Hmm...
Gotta be gone for awhile guys! Talk to ya later!
see ya AJ!
i wonder where Zack is tonight??....i need to talk to him aswell lol and i got to go soon :O
Yeh i have to go now, can someone tell zack to e-mail me if he comes on, my e-mail is on my site.....
see ya guys have a good one!
Hey Reed or anybody. Im trying to come up with a logo for my website and i am open to all opinions or advice. Help would be greatly helpful.
And Brady u asked if you could help me in anyway with my site so im open to your opinion or anybody elses opinion.
Statement as of 8:44 PM CDT on October 10, 2007
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 915 PM CDT
for extreme eastern Lamb and southwestern Hale counties...
At 843 PM CDT... local law enforcement reported golfball sized hail
with blown out car windows 8 miles northwest of Cotton Center.
At 841 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm was reported capable of
producing baseball size hail... and destructive winds in excess of 70
mph. This storm was located just southeast of Cotton Center... or
about 9 miles southwest of Hale Center... moving southeast at 10 mph.
Some locations near the path of this storm include Cotton Center...
Hale Center and Abernathy.
Destructive hail can be expected with this storm... take cover now. Go
to the lowest floor of a sturdy building and avoid windows!
Destructive winds can be expected. If you cannot get underground... go
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows!
Lat... Lon 3384 10163 3384 10208 3412 10212 3417 10183
time... Mot... loc 0144z 309deg 11kt 3397 10195
Hi Matt!
As an artist-graphic designer, maybe I can help you with your logo... Do you have an idea of what you want? Name, colors and subject?
Matt: I don't have a site to show everything I've done, but I have some examples at this address (only two logos, I've to work on a better website...): http://nguyoto.cachette.com/thumbnails.php?album=22&page=6
send me a mail if you need my help (carospeedy@hotmail.com)
Hey Caro!! How's it going?? I still haven't heard from Joe!!
My flag is at half staff until we hear from him!! ( I don't really have a flag, I'm just saying) !!
Hi Brady! I'm fine! The Canadiens won tonight!
Sorry...didn't see Joe for a while... I was occuped by my paintings (http://nguyoto.cachette.com/thumbnails.php?album=22&page=6) so I missed many days of weather... Did something great happened?
Statement as of 9:31 PM CDT on October 10, 2007
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT
for northern Lubbock and southern Hale counties...
At 925 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
indicate a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size
hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was
located 7 miles west of Abernathy... moving southeast at 30 mph.
Some locations near the path of this storm include Abernathy.
Large hail is expected with this storm. If caught outside... seek
shelter in a sturdy building. Stay away from windows.
To report severe weather... please call the National Weather Service
at 8 0 6 7 4 5 1 2 9 0.
Lat... Lon 3392 10192 3380 10181 3379 10183 3378 10188
3377 10189 3377 10192 3375 10199 3387 10204
time... Mot... loc 0231z 329deg 26kt 3377 10193
No. nothing really interesting!! Today everyone discussed the great lakes and their effect on snow storms!! I've had a few storms blow through last week! I took some nice pics!! =)^^
Nobody has heard from Joe in over a week now.. I emailed him and even called him.. only got his voice mail!! I'm worried!! He sure is a nice guy!!
Hey Brady go to my site and go down a bit till you find the title Help! Also I got a new logo!
So what's up everyone I'm really bored and I see rain on the way to me!
Hmmm empty again...Whenever I leave people come on!! it sucks.
I'm here Kenny!! It is quiet tonight!! I've just been uploading more pics from last week!!
After looking at the 00z gfs i'm truely concerned about the taco factory in elk city for sunday...
Hey guys! Quiet is it? O well.....
Hope some severe weather happens this weekend Reed....this video drought has gone on long enough! Anybody still counting the days? lol
lol i have figured out that it is now the 111th Tornadovideos.net no video drought day. wow..too long.
makee that 112 days now...after midnight here
Oh man!! 111 days!! I don't think there has been much to capture since the Manibota storms!! It's a good time for everyone to prepare to make next season the one to remember!! With these guys starting their new sites it should be fun documenting the weather!! Great job guys!! your sites are looking good I'll be glad to help ya guys out in anyway I can!! Linking your sites would be a great feature to the New and Improved TV.net when the time comes!! And a great way to plug this site too!!
If this storm system falls apart I am gonna be really pissed. The GFS looks great now and it seems the other models are falling into line with it as well. I do hope it stays in SW OK if so, as I have no data coverage north of I-40. Its gonna be another long 3 days waiting for this one.
yeah i really hope this weekend stays in tact whether it be in tx ok or ks ill take what i can get
I hope at least one of ya down there can catch something!!
I think the drought continues through all of the chasing world!! =( It can only last so long!! I hope things hold together for once for ya!!
I dont know if there were many setups this spring that looked this good to me. I even bought another 3 pack of mini DV tapes this evening...just in case this one does verify. Every run just looks better and better. Tomorrow morning we will see what the WRF has to say about it.
morning guys.....
cool i hope this one does hold out for you all!!
I wish the best to ya Wes!! You've done great in the past!! I hope you can get something good to fill your storm needs!!
Hey Brady....how are ya??
yeh good luck Wes hope it all goes well for you!
yeah we will take anything down here in OK...it's weird to be saying that but it's true we are desperate
I'm doing fine Tim!! just getting ready to call it a night here!! It's supposed to be clearing up for a few days so hopefully I can get some stuff done that I should have when I was chasing!! hehe
It seems like about mid summer it switched and we up here in da north took the heavy stuff! It must have been a great summer for the non- storm liking people!!
dont ask why i'm still up but hey maybe sunday still looks good? saturday kinda shifted up north a little but sunday is what i'm hoping for...
Good morning everyone... I'm at school so I don't have a lot of time on here. The models still seem to be in consistency w/ each other for the weekend. The SPC has a 7-8 day outlook for severe thunderstorms for my region. I am definently keeping a CLOSE eye on the situation.
Despite the severe potential, boy is fall in the air!! When I woke up this morning it was a chilly and crisp 52 degrees outside!! Today it's only supposed to get up to 74 degrees! Definently some october weather lol..
Oh and by the way, here is the SPC forecasts that I have been refering too. (click my name)
Well I am soooo hoping the models don't change much for this weekend. Sunday looks to be the best for my area in central KS. If there are storms I will be out chasing for sure......
Yeah Monty, Sunday looks to be the best for my area as well!*crosses fingers
Zach what area of the midwest do you live? I'm guessing in KS, OK, or TX....
hey guys! whats up?
zack will you be on later cause i need to talk to ya?
This mornings WRF is right in line with the GFS if not better, a very good sign.
Posted By Joe Surfer | September 29, 2007 @ 7:54 PM #
Better cored than bored, right? :-)
Well I'm off for the evening. Good luck to the nocturnal action watchers!
This is the last post from him I can find!! I can't get the archives for the 1st of Oct for some reason!!
Where the Hell are ya Joe????
Hey guys whats goin on....actually under 2% tornado risk here in jersey as we speak...spc says a brief tornado high wind threat is possible...had a tornado warned storm in the next county over from me at 430 this morning....and from what i hear they very well could have had one on the ground...i doubt it was very strong though...ill give an update about it when i know more....
hey guys whats up??
just got back from football lol sooo tierd lol
lol Brady im sure he will show up soon, well hope he does.....
Reed it's a possibility you could get 2 chases in a few days apart from the looks of the GFS. And not too far from Norman, either. After Sunday GFS has been pretty consistent with this guy: just a matter of where it ends up...
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_500_GPHTMPVORT_180HR.gif
quiet night tonight, but i guess it is only early there
Giant waves—"undular bore waves"—were photographed Oct. 3rd flowing across the skies of Des Moines, Iowa. (Credit: Iowa Environmental Mesonet Skycam.)
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2007/11oct_undularbore.htm
Wow!! That was a nice photo!! I need some gravity wave pic's!! That's one thing I'm lacking!!
Hey guys,
sorry for the lengthy disappearing act - I have been away on course for a while.
Lake effect snow = a sore back for me.
lol
All I know is in SW Ontario right now, shes bloody cold :S
Hey guys what going on? and ya its a cold one in Ontario today.
Hey guys what going on? and ya its a cold one in Ontario today.
And Reed. Would i get any lake enhanced snow because Im about 3 hours from Huron 1 hour from Lake Ontario and about 2.5 hours from Lake Erie. I would think so and if i do ill get some lake enhanced shots for ya as well.
opps double post.
PB thanks for the great shot of the undular bore waves. I believe I have seen those in Kansas twice in the early fall this year. Now I know what they were.
I dont knoow about Saturday but sunday looks good. And the SPC has a d7-8 in the same area on its 4-8 day outlook. Hope this turn out for ya down there.
it is quiet tonight lol....
Matt are you expected anything from the outlook??
Tornado Warning over New York City for awhile earlier, havent seen any reports as of yet.
Just wanted to share some photos I took from this year. I just bought a $120 ticket to the Tech v. A&M game and then I saw the convective outlook for the weekend! Well, enjoy the pics.
Nothing really for Saturday. But I am interested about sunday. The 3 day comes out tomorrow so im looking foward to seeing that. And mid-week looks good to good u would have to talk to Reed he would know more about it thats just my opinion.
Josh those pictures are amazing!!
Ah cool Matt well i hope it all goes well for you on sunday then!!
Josh you have some excellent pictures. I really like the ones with lightening and the colored clouds. I am hoping the models still hold together for Sunday. I will spend all afternoon evening out chasing if there are storms about in central KS.
its not for me its for KS/OK/TX area on sunday but there is a larger region in which the SPC has some severe storms possible on wednesday and thursday of next week.
Im out for the night guys speak to you all tomorrow, have a good one see ya!!
ok cya l8ter Tim have a good night. anybody else on here right now.
Hi everyone! So calm here!
Statement as of 6:18 PM CDT on October 11, 2007
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 700 PM CDT
for northwestern Crane County...
At 616 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar continued to
detect a severe thunderstorm capable of producing Golf Ball size
hail... and damaging winds in excess of 75 mph. This storm was
located over open country of northwestern Crane County... or about
13 miles east of Monahans... moving south at 5 mph.
Some locations affected by the severe thunderstorm include...
farm to Market Road 1233...
open country of northwestern and western Crane County.
In addition to large hail and damaging winds... deadly cloud to
ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Remember... if you can
hear thunder... you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Seek
safe shelter now.
This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds... destructive hail... and deadly
cloud to ground lightning. People outside should move to shelter...
preferably inside a strong building away from windows.
Lat... Lon 3165 10242 3141 10246 3140 10276 3158 10276
3165 10276
time... Mot... loc 2318z 349deg 8kt 3160 10267
Hey guys just woke up from a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG nap
I just spoke to my sister in western Maryland and they are having SNOW FLURRIES!!!!!!!!!! It was 91 degrees there on Monday! :D
Posted By Joe Surfer | October 1, 2007 @ 3:20 AM #
Hey! I got 2nd place in a 30-person Texas Hold'em tournament tonight. I'm stylin. Plus the Seahawks won. Sounds like I missed a fun day here. Hope everyone had fun.
Brady I am pretty sure this is the last we heard from him - it was under the Sept. 30th blog entry. Have you tried calling recently? :/
Yeah, You found it !! I did the other night!! I will again!! I was trying to search some of the Washington news papers for anything!! didn't see anything that coulda been him!! Who knows??
Hey, thanks Tim and Monty.
Hey Reed. Latest NAM run(00z)for Sunday isn't looking as good right now. But I'm still keeping an on Saturday for somewhere around Dodge City, KS. What are your thoughts for Saturday's chances? There is a small blotch of precip breaking out by Saturday evening and the best cape/moisture combination will be right in that area. Winds shouldn't be a problem. I guess the issue will be whether storms can initiate and become surface based before dark.
Nice photos Josh, some of the lightning photos are amazing.
Sunday still holds good potential for some nice tubes. The storms that fire should Sunday should be beautiful discrete supercells. I found someone to work for me Sunday so i will definitely be out.
I may have jumped the gun in saying Sunday didn't look as good. That's what I get for not waiting for the GFS to come out. There is a pretty large discrepancy in where the surface low is on Sunday between the GFS and the NAM. If we can have at least one chase day out of the two I'll be extremely happy. The day doesn't really matter. Although I'd be happier not having to drive up into northern KS on Sunday. But it's never stopped me before so I don't think it will this time ;)
so where is sunday looking good at? i guess it's kinda dumb to speculate this early but still it would be nice to at least tell myself that I will be going to ________ to chase storms on sunday
I am hloding out on chance to bag an OK tornado, most likely north of I-40. The models have trended a better chance to be in KS to NE. I think if decent CAPE can be achieved over western OK though, it could be a really good day. Personally i dont trust anything the models put out there till about a day out in most cases, so we still have a few more runs to go before we start to see the real picture.
that's a good call. i'd love to see something in oklahoma. It would only be the second tornado i've seen in OK in the 3 years I've been here. Kind of sad.
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y230/DickTwister/comparison.jpg
I'm afraid to compare this to Oct. 9th, 2001. That was a great day, but so many things could change b/w tonight and Sunday. Though it's fun to hope. :)
I havent seen a tornado in OK since my first spring here in OK. That was on the March 27th event in 2004. I am trying not to compare the Oct 9th either, but if sunday is half that day I would take it. I just got done watching a radar loop from that day. So many nice storms everywhere.
Nice. I would love to see it happen. Anwyay, it's getting late. So i'm probably going to head to bed. We'll see if the models have anything good for us to look at tomorrow. Have a good night!
Yeah, I was just shown that and thought it was interesting. Still a few days out, I can't chase Saturday, so I'm praying for a Sunday chase. I still think Saturday is looking promising for a handful of tornadoes. Tomorrow, might even be decent for a supercell or two in SW KS and into the OK/TX panhandle. Probably not though.
I wonder where everyone is at this morning....Looks like we are going to get some rain today in central KS. But this weekend better hold up so I can go chasing.....
The 12z run on the WRF is looking good this morning for western OK. Cape is beginning to come up. At this point I would likely play somewhere i can get internet near the OK/KS border because I dont have any data coverage in NW OK. Still amazed the models are staying with this one for so long.
I am definatly going chasing on Sunday. I'm kinda suprised the models are still looking so good also. I wonder when Reed is going to give us an update and models.
hey guys....whats up??
is anyone there actually lol