News DetailTornadoVideos.net will stormchase this weekend!
Posted At: September 14, 2006 @ 11:55 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
**STAY TUNED FOR VIDEO UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND**
Tornadic supercells appear likely on Friday and especially Saturday over portions of the Great Plains, and TornadoVideos.net will be seeking redemption after a horrible 2006 tornado season. It's been a depressing yearr for us so far with several missed opportunities. On August 14, we decided againstt heading to South Dakota for a potential tornado event, after experiencing "clear sky busts" about a dozen times in the Northern Plains and southern Canada this year, and we missed two incredible tornadic supercells that put down 10+ tornadoes. We need to see a tornado this weekend or we'll go off the deep end.
If moisture returns and storms initiate, Friday could be a good day in northern Kansas and Nebraska. The wind shear is fairly good, but a strong cap could prevent storms from initiating. Both the WRF and the GFS are forecasting initiation in central Nebraska, so that is our initial target for tomorrow (Friday). However, if moisture is slow to return, we may have to adjust southward to southwest KS or even northwest OK. Initiation in central NE should be aided by the left exit region of an upper level jet streak (see WRF 250 mb forecast below). The 00z Friday WRF forecast 250 and 850 mb flow and CAPE for 00z Saturday are displayed below.
Tornadic supercells are more likely to occur on Saturday than Friday, since moisture will have a chance to return and low-level shear will be much stronger. As seen below, in extreme eastern NE and western IA, 0-1 km helicity values are greater than 200 m2/s2 and CAPEs are greater than 2500 J/kg; values adequate for strong tornadoes. Also, the deep layer shear vector is nearly perpendicular to the cold front further to the north. We are very optimistic about Saturday. The 00z Friday WRF forecast CAPE left and 0-1 km helicity right for 00z Sunday are displayed below.
WRF FORECAST
00Z SUNDAY
Tornadic supercells appear likely on Friday and especially Saturday over portions of the Great Plains, and TornadoVideos.net will be seeking redemption after a horrible 2006 tornado season. It's been a depressing yearr for us so far with several missed opportunities. On August 14, we decided againstt heading to South Dakota for a potential tornado event, after experiencing "clear sky busts" about a dozen times in the Northern Plains and southern Canada this year, and we missed two incredible tornadic supercells that put down 10+ tornadoes. We need to see a tornado this weekend or we'll go off the deep end.
If moisture returns and storms initiate, Friday could be a good day in northern Kansas and Nebraska. The wind shear is fairly good, but a strong cap could prevent storms from initiating. Both the WRF and the GFS are forecasting initiation in central Nebraska, so that is our initial target for tomorrow (Friday). However, if moisture is slow to return, we may have to adjust southward to southwest KS or even northwest OK. Initiation in central NE should be aided by the left exit region of an upper level jet streak (see WRF 250 mb forecast below). The 00z Friday WRF forecast 250 and 850 mb flow and CAPE for 00z Saturday are displayed below.
| 250 mb wind  |
WRF FORECAST 00Z SATURDAY 850 mb wind  |
CAPE  |
WRF FORECAST
00Z SUNDAY
 |
 |
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