News DetailHurricane Florence pounding Bermuda
Posted At: September 11, 2006 @ 8:33 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
At 8:00 am AST, Florence was located 60 miles west of Bermuda with sustained winds of 80 mph and a minimum central pressure of 974 mb. Although the central pressure has decreased slightly, the maximum sustained winds of Florence have increased overnight because the windfield has expanded. A 96 mph wind gust was reported at an elevated station on the southern tip of the island. Florence will continue to produce hurricane-force winds over Bermuda as it continues its recurve to the northeast, and will transition to a powerful mid-latitude cyclone in the next few days.
The satellite image below (left) shows that the convection has intensified over the southern and western portions of the cyclone. However, the radar image from Bermuda (right) reveals that the eye is not closed, and appears to be completely open on the entire southern side! This is a good sign for Bermuda.
The satellite image below (left) shows that the convection has intensified over the southern and western portions of the cyclone. However, the radar image from Bermuda (right) reveals that the eye is not closed, and appears to be completely open on the entire southern side! This is a good sign for Bermuda.
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I am not sure if anyone can answer this question. But why are all the hurricanes of 2006 re-curving before they have a chance to get into the Gulf like last year? I mean it is a good thing, but is there a scientific reason for this re-curving of the hurricanes?
Great site, keep up the good work. The tornado videos and hurricane videos are awesome!
The recurvatures are mainly due to the position of the subtropical high in the Atlantic. So when a storm recurves, it is usually passing along the west side of the Bermuda High, and then is picked up by an approaching trough exiting the east coast of the US. The position of the Bermuda high is dependent on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, which is a measure of the pressure difference between the subtropical high and the pressure near Iceland. Last year, the semi-permanent high was stronger and extended further west (postive NAO?), so storms would pass south of the high and enter the Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico. This year, the NAO phase is likely opposite (I haven't checked the recent phase...it is likely negative if I had to guess), and the storms are moving northward along the west side of a weaker high and are getting picked up by troughs. Also, I've read that El Nino results in increased wind shear over the Caribbean and western Tropical Atlantic, which is killing any tropical waves that are too far south to get picked up by mid-latitude troughs.
Bermuda looks like the place to be this year...or somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic.