News DetailSouth Dakota update
Posted At: August 12, 2006 @ 12:04 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
After analyzing the 18z RUC model output (see below), our excitement about today's potential has sky-rocketed. It's currently around 1 pm CDT, and we are driving towards a target in north-central/northeast SD. As can be seen below, the RUC is forecasting a low-level jet from 21-00Z of 35 knots extending westward all the way to the cold front in the Dakotas! This is dramatically different than the WRF forecast, which was still favorable for tornadoes! The RUC also forecasts EXTREME instability with CAPEs exceeding 5000 J/kg. If the storm mode is cellular and convective inhibition is eroded sufficiently, large tornadoes are likely with these parameters today in eastern SD.
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Forecast on track as usual.
Yeah I was just looking at that and almost crapped myself.
Things are looking promising. Looking forward to the next StormWatch update!!
Hmmmmmm... Strong cap... Okay shear... Storms are firing now along and ahead of the front... Hopefully the cap is weak enough to support a couple supercells... Good luck.
Nice upgrade to the site.
looks like one of the cells in north central SD has a signature split, hopefully you guys are on that storm!
I'd say that cell in Faulk county (I think)could go tornado warned at any minute
Wow I just looked at the radar and their poping up all over the place. Good luck I hope yall get a few supercells
Any luck yesterday? I watched the last video you posted and you said you were going after another part of the storm with a lower base. Any luck with that storm?
No luck yesterday...The RUC seemed to under forecast dewpoints and temperatures by 5-10 degrees. Not good with a strong cap. Way too optimistic once again. 40 hours of driving for a 90 dollar ticket.
If you'd let Joel drive you probably wouldn't have gotten any tickets! Ah, the thrill of the unknown when the chase is on!