News DetailApril 6, 2006 Update
Posted At: April 6, 2006 @ 6:07 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
TV.net stormchasers Reed Timmer and Joel Taylor, along with Martin Lawrence and Matt Chatelain are currently (10:30am) in Marysville, KS awaiting convective initation and analyzing the morning model data. The forecast ETA and RUC soundings are strongly favoring southeast NE given the more southeasterly 1 km flow and enhanced streamwise vorticity. I (Reed) believe that a region from Topeka to Kansas City is too far south for a maximum potential of large tornadoes, given that the storm motion vector is nearly parallel with the 0-1 shear vector, thus minimizing the streamwise vorticity unless a northeasterly supercell occurs. We are hoping for initiation in in the northern few tiers of counties in KS with tornadogenesis likely near the NE border. This event looks like an extremely dangerous situation for extreme NE KS and SE NE. The forecast hodographs for Omaha, NE (left) and Topeka, KS (right) are shown below.
As can be seen above, the angle between the storm motion vector and the 0-1 km shear vector is much higher at OMA than TOP, but the shear vector is much longer in TOP (based on research of John Esterheld and Don Guiliano). Thus, a location intermediate between these two locations will likely be ideal for large, violent tornadoes. Specifically, we are targeting the four tier of counties straddling the KS/NE border.
As can be seen above, the angle between the storm motion vector and the 0-1 km shear vector is much higher at OMA than TOP, but the shear vector is much longer in TOP (based on research of John Esterheld and Don Guiliano). Thus, a location intermediate between these two locations will likely be ideal for large, violent tornadoes. Specifically, we are targeting the four tier of counties straddling the KS/NE border.
Interested media outlets can contact Reed Timmer via cell phone at 405-206-2307.
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