TornadoVideos.net

Posted At: March 11, 2006 @ 3:02 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The first of two potential severe weather outbreaks will likely occur during the afternoon and overnight hours of Saturday, March 11, 2006. Although not as ideal as Sunday, the conditions on Saturday still appear favorable for strong tornadoes over northern AR and southern MO. Our initial target area as of late on Friday night for Saturday is between Joplin and Springfield, MO. CAPE values of 2000+ J/kg, 0 CIN, strong upper flow, and 0-1km SR helicity values of 150 m2/s2 are forecast by the ETA and GFS to be centered near or to the south of SW Missouri between 18 and 00z. The ETA also forecasts convection developing by early- to mid-afternoon in central and eastern MO and southwest MO, northeast OK, and northwest AR by mid-late afternoon. A target of southwest MO was chosen because storms that develop to the south in northern AR and northeast OK would be easily accessible, as well as earlier storms in southwest/central MO. The ETA forecast 500 mb flow, 0-1km SR helicity, and CAPE at 00z, 00z, and 18z, respectively, are displayed below.