Saturday was another major bust in South Dakota, and a huge wast of incredible low-level wind shear. Mid- to upper-level clouds prevented surface temperatures from rising above 90^oF, and surface-based storms failed to develop. Still though, elevated storms fired in central SD producing photogenic shelf clouds and incredible lightning, but probably not worth the 40 hours of driving. Here are a few photos from the chase:

After analyzing the 18z RUC model output (see below), our excitement about today's potential has sky-rocketed. It's currently around 1 pm CDT, and we are driving towards a target in north-central/northeast SD. As can be seen below, the RUC is forecasting a low-level jet from 21-00Z of 35 knots extending westward all the way to the cold front in the Dakotas! This is dramatically different than the WRF forecast, which was still favorable for tornadoes! The RUC also forecasts EXTREME instability with CAPEs exceeding 5000 J/kg. If the storm mode is cellular and convective inhibition is eroded sufficiently, large tornadoes are likely with these parameters today in eastern SD.