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UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10
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TOPIC: UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10
#31094
updraft1
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Posts: 2588
graphgraph
UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 98
So into another week, that must mean less than 3 weeks to Aus and MikeO then !
Sorry !!

Right back to our Weather, well my little stab at what i currently see from latest GFS Runs for the next 6 days anyway.
I in no way expect conditions to be as i say throughout the week but im happy to post this as of today knowing that GFS is quite likely, no, will change anyway.

All graphics are SLP for Midday and of course courtesy of Netweather.tv.

So here goes...

Mon 01/02



There is a Low(996mb) developing North of the UK just off Norway. This will bring some milder Atlantic Air to Northern regions but any precip will readily turn to snow given the colder airflow alreday there. Snow possible along NE coasts and higher ground in Wales as well.

Further south parts of the UK will be under the influence of milder conditions drawing from mainland Europe.
So rain likely in the West.

Temps will range from 0 in the N to +7 in the S/SW.
Generally light winds.


Tues 02/02



The Low(992) slips down the NE side of the country.
Still cooler air for much of the North with Atlantic Systems starting to affect the SW.
Again snow possible in the far North with rain falling once you start going Southwards.

Temps -2 in the North and up to +9 in the SW.
Winds increasing along the South Coast.


Weds 03/02




The existing Low now slips into mainland Europe and quite a complex Low develops in the Atlantic heading our way.
Still some snow possible on higher ground in Scotland/Wales.
Some rain moving into the SW.

Temps still as low as -2 on higher ground in Scotland but making +7 further South.
Winds generally light.


Thurs 04/02



The Atlantic Low is now influencing most of the UK.
The snow just about finally disappears with widespread rain for much of the UK.

Temps 0 in the North up to a sizzling +9 further S/SW.
Winds generally still light but increasing over the next few days.


Fri 05/02



What is still a Deepening Low will now affect all of the UK.
With rain over much of the country.

Temps +1 in North to +9 again further South.
Winds as expected increasing generally with it windiest in the West.


Sat 06/02



What is now quite a Deep Low at 980mb could well bring a quite stormy day for most of the UK.

Temps may well be reasonable ranging from +3 to +9 but there looks to be gales and heavy rain for many.


Well thats that then, im sure it will be totally wrong but i enjoyed spending the time on GFS and trying to post this whilst 3 rowdy children have a riot here
 
Last Edit: 2010/01/31 19:55 By updraft1.
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#31099
tornado92
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Posts: 1666
graphgraph
Re:UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 34
Riots on Sunday

Yeah, looks like the cold has left for a bit,
 
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#31124
Wazza350
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Posts: 887
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Re:UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 21
Awesome detailed daily subscription there bud. Not had chance to gaze over the gfs myself yet, been to the pub to lose the quiz again!

That low seems to become something we're more used to in the Atlantic, and quite deep as you say. We've not had much this winter in the way of wind this winter due to the harsh cold spell. Looks like the Atlantic stream is allowing these systems to flow through now.
 
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#31128
mikeO
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Posts: 1791
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Re:UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 87
Applause dude. You've nailed the forecast pretty much on the head here. I was viewing the GFS and reading your posts after each one and yep, well done! High pressure ridge from Europe influences the lows and keeps them at bay.

I'd would not mind seeing corresponding sat images with the GFS..would show exactly how the systems are affected by each other, either that or a water vapour image if you can locate one for your region.

Kudos...you'll make a fine navigator for me!
 
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#31175
updraft1
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Posts: 2588
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Re:UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 98
Cheers for that Mike, but its not really forecasting is it, just sitting here interpreting basic GFS detail. Well maybe just a little more than that but fun all the same, kept me outta trouble for an hour or two anyway.
And im sure if i run GFS for each day until Sat now it would certainly give slightly different scenarios as well.

As far as Water Vapour Images, im not aware of any that i can use but im more than happy to post up a Sat Loop each day.
I will need to check what length of loop i can post but other than that will get one here each day after work i guess.

" What was that Kim ? Umm yes i am sat here on the computer again "
 
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#31177
updraft1
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Posts: 2588
graphgraph
Re:UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 98
Okay, so heres todays Sat Loop.
I will need to have a fiddle and see if i can get the image here as opposed to a link and also over a longer time frame as well.

But if you compare this to Todays SLP Graphic you will be able to see the weak Low off Norway and the fronts with some of the snow and then the Deep Low in the Atlantic which is already pushing in some milder air the further south you look.
However GFS is showing that Low tracking back Westwards and as it does further Lows develop in it wake. And its these that are expected later in the week.

Its also clear that we have lost that bitter Easterly flow although its generally still N/NW so still some way to go before we see that W/SW airflow arriving.

Sat Loop...
www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=eu&sat=ir&type=loop


Just occured to me that without setting a time frame on the Loop then it may well update itself.
Will post and see what happens.
 
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#31180
Wazza350
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Posts: 887
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Re:UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 21
Yep just had a run through the GFS for the week and I can see what you mean. That Low in the Atlantic towards the end of the week is a deep bugger! Seems as though its going to hang around out there though now.

At least the temps are nudging up a degree or two.
 
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#31192
tornado92
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Posts: 1666
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Re:UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 34
That Low running south over the North Seatomorrow is supplying a occluded front, meaning its gonna rain, and the temps will go up some degrees.

However, there is a tight Low, between Nova Scotia and Greenland which sends a cold front this way Wednesday into Thursday, and I can see some significant snowfall risk up North when this slides into cold air (North Wales and heading north).

Any Met Office warnings out, I haven't had the time to check.
 
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#31228
jp81
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Posts: 332
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Re:UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 11
hey guys. well its snowing here at the mo. and has been since 8am! temp is currently 1c and looking at the radar it could be here for a while, wind currently NNE @ 5mph. havent ran gfs yet but will have a look in a while.

its mighty cold again
 
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#31239
Marianne
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Posts: 293
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Re:UK Weather Forecasts, Reports and Discussion WC 01/02/10 4 Years, 2 Months ago Karma: 40
Sun sun sun! Not seen a single flake of snow. Although the same can't be said for the rest of the country! Still snowing in central Scotland according to my sister.
 
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