This thread is for discussion of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Today's 12Z NOGAPS model (found here: http://tc.met.psu.edu/)seems to develop a trough of low pressure currently over the east coast of Mexico and South Texas into a center of low pressure and into what appears to be a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche starting at 6 hours (1 PM Central Time today). According to the model the system degenerates within 60 hours. (EDIT: The GFS and CMC also indicate this)

Alright, can anyone confirm this for me? Am I seeing what I think I'm seeing? Or is this some upper-level thing that won't do anything?

Alright some good news (if you like tropical cyclones, that is): The GFS model has been consistently forecasting an area of low pressure to move off of Honduras and develop in the western Caribbean Sea on May 9/10 and move into Cuba on May 12. After that, GFS moves it very close to South Florida on May 13/14 with a potential landfall.

Now, I know what you're thinking, "Oh, it won't do that, hurricane season doesn't start until June!" Well, that's true, but we are in the end of an El Nina pattern right now, which does something to make early season storms more likely. I know something else you might be thinking, "It's just a model. It's just ONE model. It's probably wrong." Well, yes, it's a model, and yes, it's one model, but there's really a 50/50 chance (by my estimates) that this is correct.

As for the GFS' correctness to begin with, it forecasted the last early season storms (2003's Ana, 2007's Andrea (I think), 2008's Arthur) over 200 hours (8 days) out. And, the GFS has been consistently forecasting this system for several days. There is some model support from the ECMWF.

Precautions

I think that if you live in Florida you need to go ahead and start or finish your preparations for hurricane season now if you haven't already.

Here a screenshot of the GFS at 384 hours (from Weather Underground):

Ok, well, I have both good and bad news for you.... sort of.

Good news: GFS has stopped forecasting our supposed storm next week to impact the US.
Bad news: It now forecasts not only one tropical cyclone to form, but two. The second would come out of the Antilles and dissipate within 36 hours of formation. Here's the time frame we're looking at for our possible storms next week:

Storm 1: May 4 - Beyond May 14 (as of 12z 4/28/2009)
Storm 2: May 12 - May 14 (as of 12z 4/28/2009)

Regardless of where they would go, if they form, here are the most likely countries to be impacted:

Panama (S1)
Costa Rica (S1)
Nicaragua (S1)
Cuba (S1)
Cayman Islands (S1)
Lesser Antilles (S2)

Current forecasted minimum pressure:
Storm 1: 1002 mbar/hPa
Storm 2: 1002 mbar/hPa

Remember, there isn't much certainty that this will form, but if it does, this is likely what it would do.

Some GFS screenshots from Weather Underground:

*Be patient with me, I have to upload these screenshots one by one.

Beginnings of Storm 1 (May 5):

Beginnings of Storm 2 (May 12):

NHC imagery don't confirm any hurricane development from these systems. The HPa's are weak at 1004 upward etc and they'd need to be a lot deeper than that in the forecasted period for any development. IR and water vapor images don't show any LLC or developing circulation. The storms are just that - There's not much mileage from where they are located to the US coast for organisation and they'd have to improve markedly in the period you commented.



Most developing lows move off the coast of Africa into the Atlantic and as you can see by the image, there's nothing to indicate any organised, continual storm structure surrounding these areas of low pressure, which is a pre-requisite. Sat images do show storms over the Islands indicated, but that's all. The Atlantic just has a stream of high based cloud. Most of the winds are easterly from the Trades and from viewing online there's nothing at all that is considered tropical storm development!

If there's any advisory on tropical depressions NOAA have none do they? I can't find any

mikeO wrote:
If there's any advisory on tropical depressions NOAA have none do they? I can't find any

No, they don't. Because this is off-season up here, the NHC issues a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement on the possibility of anything coming together (when it comes together).

P.S. U.S. National Hurricane Center link.

Yep had the NHC links for ages...

So are you agreeing ?

...oh...my post was in no way having a go at you..it was simply an observation from the NHC links and when I was searching info due to interest from your initial post

mikeO wrote:
Yep had the NHC links for ages...

So are you agreeing ?

...oh...my post was in no way having a go at you..it was simply an observation from the NHC links and when I was searching info due to interest from your initial post

After looking at the 6z GFS this morning, somewhat.

And I knew that, thanks for confirming it though.

I just can't wait for Atlantic hurricane season this year, I'm on the east coast of the US and I might see a hurricane for the first time since 2004.

Indeed! Given the run of hurricanes over the past several seasons there's no reason to think otherwise...we were supposed to continue our chat re the season etc...I must do that today once you lot go to bed and I'll be awake during the day!

I am.... unsettled to report that the GFS has completely dissolved both of it's previously forecasted storms.

Oh well ..... 'till June 1st then!