Looks like something finally got together. This came off the NHC servers at 1304 GMT today:

invest_RENUMBER_al972009_al112009.ren

This means that we have a new tropical depression, TD ELEVEN, AL112009. It is currently located in the far southern Caribbean Sea. Advisories should begin by 10:00 AM EST/1400 GMT today.

I believe these model runs are from 12z (1200 GMT, 8:00 AM EST) today. The images (including satellite) are from Weather Underground.

Wow, wasn't expecting that!
Are you sure that is from this season?
Thanks for the update Ari, I finally have something to look at this week.

So much for depression. This system appears to be engaging in rapid intensification, triggered by an anticyclone above the system, killing all shear, as well as warm waters that have not been disturbed for months on end.

4pm EST Advisory
(For strikethrough, see next paragraph)
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

CORRECTED DEPRESSION TO IDA IN RAINFALL STATEMENT

...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...HEADED TOWARD
NICARAGUA....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.0N 82.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

The reason that I stroke-through, if you will, the wind-speed was because the NHC issued this update at 5:45 PM EST:

TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
530 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009
...IDA A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

AT 530 PM EST...2230 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING
IDA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.

FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

Graphics - from the NHC and Weather Underground




You can find a good RAMSDIS loop right here.

Tropical Storm looks to be the highest it will get in the near future, but with it possibly going in to the Gulf of Mexico, anything could happen.

RadarNut wrote:
Tropical Storm looks to be the highest it will get in the near future, but with it possibly going in to the Gulf of Mexico, anything could happen.

we have too see because this time of the year the gulf is cool so anything really getting strong could be hampered by the cool water which is a good thing for me because the way this thing looks I'm gonna get lots of rain from this thing and I hope that's all it is!

Excellent job as usual, Ari.

I hope the folks living on the slopes (and below them) of Nicaragua head to safer ground. This one's gonna dump some serious rain.

Classic example of rapid intensification in a small tropical system.

HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL NICARAGUA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO
THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...NORTH OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM
...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IDA MOVES INLAND OVER NICARAGUA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
LATER TODAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.1N 83.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

On top of all that, there is currently speculation that another cold-core/hybrid system will develop in the Bay of Campeche and and merge with Ida, developing a "Perfect Storm" situation. I don't know anything about this, as I have not yet seen the latest models.




Models and Satellite from Weather Underground.




MIMIC-TC from CIMSS:


Latest still RAMSDIS image of Ida:

Well, after spending most of the day inland, Ida is weakening somewhat fast. It may not survive passing through Nicaragua, and even if it does, its core might get disrupted enough to cause a collapse once it hits the less favorable conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. However, if it can hold itself together well enough, it might have a shot at becoming a hurricane once more.

TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA NOW BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND
IDA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.5N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

I'm very surprised with this storm. I thought we would end this season with 0 landfalling tropical systems and I also thought that nothing would form this late in an El-Nin~o year, but surprises to happen and I didn't discount surprises entirely.

So Ida has busted the 0 Atlantic landfalling tropical systems trend and also busting the landfalling hurricane trend. In fact, it's threatening to become the first (and likely the only) tropical system to make landfall in the US.

So much for a quiet season, but I hate quite seasons.

Nittany Tiger wrote:
I'm very surprised with this storm. I thought we would end this season with 0 landfalling tropical systems and I also thought that nothing would form this late in an El-Nin~o year, but surprises to happen and I didn't discount surprises entirely.

So Ida has busted the 0 Atlantic landfalling tropical systems trend and also busting the landfalling hurricane trend. In fact, it's threatening to become the first (and likely the only) tropical system to make landfall in the US.

So much for a quiet season, but I hate quite seasons.

So far we have actually had five landfalling systems, Bill, Claudette, Erika, Grace, and Ida, as well as at least two Invests that I know of that barely escaped classification and will likely be upgraded in the post-season analysis.

As for Ida... I'm expecting everything to hit the fan once it gets back over water. If it's lucky, it could see Cat. 2 status, or even Cat. 3. It all depends on what it does before entering the GOM, IMO.

Presently, it's moving up the Honduran coastline and should be over water within 9 hours.

As for where it goes after that, there's nothing concrete yet.

10 AM EST Advisory

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

...IDA MOVING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO LIMON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IDEA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN



As I typed this, I took a look at the 10 AM discussion, and found this piece interesting:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

IDA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING
OVERNIGHT AFTER IT EMERGES FROM EASTERN HONDURAS. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH
INTENSIFICATION TO EXPECT WITH IDA. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOWS A RATHER MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING...WHILE
THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IDA WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE AGAIN. SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND EVEN
HIGHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY MUCH
CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF PERIOD...SOME
WEAKENING IS SHOWN DUE TO SHEAR BECOMING STRONG AND COOLER WATERS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIKELY START THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF IDA.

...........

Visible image of Ida from SSD.