Invest 90L has formed out of a tropical wave with an area of low pressure southeast of Cape Verde. NHC's latest information:

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

Development of this system seems somewhat certain as most major models develop it. The GFS and ECMWF models have been especially aggressive about developing the system into what appears to be a major hurricane for the last couple of days.

I will post more information when.... well, when I can find it.....

Code Red.

(From today's 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook)

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Satellite and models from Weather Underground:

*NOTE: Satellite updates roughly every six hours over this part of the world*

Oh boy this sytem acording to the models could be our first hrricane which is not good but,we do have to remeber that we are in the peak of hurricane season and we have to watch these things from the looks of this wave I would expect it to form into a depression within the next few days and then our first name storm by next week.

TD possible tonight.


(From today's 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook)

2. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD ALSO FORM TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Satellite and models from Weather Underground:

This just came down off the TPC's server:

invest_RENUMBER_al902009_al032009.ren

This means that advisories will, without a doubt, be initiated at 11 AM on Tropical Depression Three.

Wow, I was looking at the 5 day forecast for this tropical depression, and its saying it could reach category two in the next 5 days...

keltonhalbert wrote:
Wow, I was looking at the 5 day forecast for this tropical depression, and its saying it could reach category two in the next 5 days...



Yeah, I think that we are looking at a big tropical weather event coming up before the end of the month....
_________________________________________________________________________________________
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.5N 34.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



Current satellite and models from Weather Underground:




MIMIC-IR from CIMSS:

Microwave imagery is currently unavailable.

I was just gonna say that TD3 looks very organised, on the satilite image, you can just see the beginning of the eye near the Northern edge of the storm.

tornado92 wrote:
I was just gonna say that TD3 looks very organised, on the satilite image, you can just see the beginning of the eye near the Northern edge of the storm.

Actually, that's not possible. "Authentic" eyes are only possible in hurricanes and the occasional strong tropical storm (i.e. T.S. Fay over Florida last year). You might see something that looks like an eye, perhaps even an exposed circulation, in systems under 50 knots, but these are not real eyes.

Countdown to 5 PM Advisory

T-54:30

NRL is reporting that TD 3 has become Tropical Storm Bill.

EDIT: For anyone who clicked the link, it works now.