A tropical wave associated with an area of low pressure south of Cape Verde has been given a 30-50% chance of development by Tuesday, with development more likely beyond that period of time. This system has been named AL992009, Invest 99L. The NHC's mention:

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

Tropical Depression Two (AL022009) has formed southwest of the Cape Verde islands and is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tomorrow.

Advisory:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER
THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280
MILES...455 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Forecast map:


Visible and AVN satellite:



I will post models after the 12z run since not all have come out yet.

Additionally, the National Hurricane Center is watching two "blobs" near the Lesser Antilles. They both currently have a "less than 30% chance" to develop within 48 hours.

Ari,

'Blobs' are of more interest meteorologically than 'thingy-dingys', right?

Thanks for the thread, Ari. Good one. Will keep checking back to see what you post on the progression.

For now, what's your take? Will it head into the Atlantic and NE, or...?

NC, thanks for detail again and will attempt to keep tabs on this one as you post updates

Without knowing anything re these events would i be right in thinking that as such the Hurricane Season is now beginning/begun ?
Not an area i have studied before except your recent posts so excuse my ignorance here.

SkyEyeJo wrote:
Ari,

'Blobs' are of more interest meteorologically than 'thingy-dingys', right?

Thanks for the thread, Ari. Good one. Will keep checking back to see what you post on the progression.

For now, what's your take? Will it head into the Atlantic and NE, or...?

"Blobs" are definitely of more interest than the generally variable "thingy-dingys". "Blobs" are what we call areas of disturbed tropical weather with little potential to become a tropical cyclone before they become Invests.

As for where it's going, right now it's a bit early to tell, but I think it's got a 60% chance of NOT recurving and impacting the East Coast of the US. Particularly I think Miami up to Virginia Beach is at the most risk.
____________________________________________________________________________________________

Advisory 2 has been issued, and MIMIC is out on TD 2.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.6 WEST OR ABOUT
350 MILES...560 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY
OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 29.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



Satellite and models from Weather Underground:



MIMIC-IR imagery from CIMSS:


I don't know why but they are not doing MIMIC right now. Weird.

updraft1 wrote:
NC, thanks for detail again and will attempt to keep tabs on this one as you post updates

Without knowing anything re these events would i be right in thinking that as such the Hurricane Season is now beginning/begun ?
Not an area i have studied before except your recent posts so excuse my ignorance here.

Yes, Ups, the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially began on May 28, 2009 when Tropical Depression One formed.

I like to watch these systems in the event that they threaten land. My coast (NC/SC) is at particularly high risk this year due to the position of the Azores High.

So started a while ago then !
I did warn you i had little, ok, NO knowledge on these events.

And of course i can now also see why you have an active interest in these events.
Certainly like the way you present the posts and the data/graphics that are shown as well.

Nice one NC

Time for me to 'splain to Ups why he should pay attention to these events.
Maybe tell him that they sometimes curve all the way into the northern Atlantic and blow right along to Jolly Old England and cause much turmoil.
And, there's a chance that there'll be big exciting waves from the angry sea to get pix of and stream and junk.
Then there's that little thing about how hurricanes spawn small tornadoes.

SkyEyeJo wrote:
Time for me to 'splain to Ups why he should pay attention to these events.
Maybe tell him that they sometimes curve all the way into the northern Atlantic and blow right along to Jolly Old England and cause much turmoil.
And, there's a chance that there'll be big exciting waves from the angry sea to get pix of and stream and junk.
Then there's that little thing about how hurricanes spawn small tornadoes.

I came thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to explaining that to him. LOL
____________________________________________________________________________________________

New advisory, intensity remains the same.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009

...DEPRESSION SHOWING NO SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING YET...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.4 WEST OR ABOUT 400
MILES...645 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 30.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



Satellite and models from Weather Underground:




MIMIC-IR remains unavailable.

From some of the latest satilite frames it looks like this tropical depression is getting its act togeather I would look for this thing to become our first named storm of the year by Tommrow.