So far it looks like March has been a month of disappointments for most of us. But lately i've been getting sucked in by the SPC. They post that "see text" on the outlook and it's like magnet. But besides March 8/9 this month has been a let down. unfortunately it looks like anymore severe weather events won't be for some time to come.

James be watching this next weekend and Monday to Tuesday time frame. Both the GFS and the Euro models are showing a nice trough coming. It looks like the last week of March could get plenty interesting...

Better come before i keel over dead from boredom. The weather is the only thing that prevents me from going crazy during test week. It better hurry these tests are taking their toll.

so i take it they don't have a definite area yet? Well i don't know i'm on spring break the last week of March. Maybe i'll take a road trip?

Looks like a nice dryline setup in KS on Sunday or Monday. If there is enough moisture to work with then things could get very interesting! Then later in the week probably in Oklahoma. Of course the long range models aren't the best so things could change a lot by then.

yay!!!

Yeah, things are looking good for sunday/monday...

We have the GFS, EURO and CMC seeing some action. The EURO backed off a bit last run, though they made a tweak to the model 2 weeks ago so yeah..

But GFS has been consistent and continues to do so..

Here's the cmc run for 144 hours : meteocentre.com/models/glb00_144.gif

Models are still inconsistent with the details but it def looks like we are entering a much more active period. I haven't looked at too much but the 0z GFS shows next Wednesday to be CRAZY!

Brian, you're right the 00z is showing some good potential along with the EURO and the CMC. The latest EURO run continues to show this as well.. the 06z GFS is freshly out the oven and it shows the low forming around Saturday, and then continues to deepen it with Mon/Tue looking the best.

06z run

102 Hours - Saturday (Low develops)

156 Hours - Monday (Low deepens and looks dominant)

Though it should be noted that it's more North now. The models have been flip flopping back and fourth making it a really "wait and see" scenario. It should fall into the NAM forecast range soon (not sure how the NAM handles such systems, just know its a terrible model for tropical forecasting). Reading the HPC forecast they seem to think the EUROs solution was unlikely and say tweaks made to the model in the past few weeks have been causing it to act weird.

I wouldn't consider the year we've had so far bleak. When compared to last year, it seems like it could be.

Remember, though, last year was record breaking in just about every way imaginable. When you compare this year with most years, it isn't doing too bad.

We're just on the tip of the iceberg as far as the Severe Season is concerned!