Ida has been downgraded to a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds coming it at ~ 70 MPH. At this time it appears that Ida will weaken gradually throughout the day, with landfall occurring tomorrow morning, probably very close to Mobile, AL. The greatest threat from Ida will likely be heavy rainfall, with 5+ inches possiblein areas of eastern Alabama, Georgia and the Florida panhandle. A notable surge of 3-5' is also anticipated, which could threaten property along the immediate coastline. As with any landfalling tropical system, tornadoes will also be possible. Dennis Sherrod will be streaming from Alabama, with other TVN live streamers possibly on the scene as well, so be sure to follow along on the Live page.
A shortwave trough will move through southern South America during the days Monday 18 and Tuesday 19. This system will interact with a very hot, moist and highly unstable air mass already in place and lead to the development of bad weather conditions over central, eastern and northern Argentina, as well as over Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil.
The Argentine provinces of CĂłrdoba, La Pampa, Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Ente RĂos will register very high temperatures and dew points during Monday, but the approaching of the disturbance from the West will trigger thunderstorms and showers there. Given the very high instability already dominating the area, with Lifted Indices of -6 to -8, an upper level jet blowing at 70/80 knots and the intensification of a low level jet (with maximum velocities of about 35 knots), some if these thunderstorms will likely develop into supercells, with the main threat becoming big hail (1 to 2 inches) and strong wind gusts. One or two isolated tornadoes can not be totally ruled out, especially over CĂłrdoba and late in the afternoon, when the low level jet becomes more intense.
On Tuesday, all this activity will become organized into a mesoscale convective system over eastern and northeastern Argentina, increasing the potential for very heavy rains and storm totals locally surpassing 4 inches over Entre RĂos, Corrientes and northeastern Buenos Aires, as well as over western and northern Uruguay. The development of this system will be accompanied by the formation of a surface low pressure near Buenos Aires City... something very rare for this time of the year. This low will tend to move east and southeast during the day Tuesday. A cold front will then develop in association with this low pressure area and it will tend to affect northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil later on, bringing heavy rains and thunderstorms. A highly unstable environment along with 50 knots at low level will increase the chance for severe weather over that area, including the chance for some isolated tornadoes.
Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes have initiated over the Arklatex region this afternoon, with a tornado warning currently in effect for Little River County including the town of Ashdown. Meanwhile, a tornado watch has been issued farther east, over areas of Mississippi and Alabama. It is expected that thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and into the evening. An area stretching from Springfield, MO through western Arkansas into northern Louisiana is currently being monitored for development, with a tornado watch having just been issued for most of western AR. Multiple streamers are currently in the field, so be sure to follow along on the Livepage!
A snowstorm on the northeast coast, another textbook nor'easter system, is continuing to dump snow on parts of New England. In particular, inland parts of Maine are receiving copious amounts of the white stuff at present. The system has already been responsible for dumping some of the highest amounts of snow we've seen in quite some time! 43 inches in Randolph, NH, 21 inches in New York City, 36 inches in Oakland, MD, 52 inches in Woodford, VT, and 53 inches in Potter Hollow, NY! Amazing!
Re:Nor'easter Continuing To Affect New England Feb 27 2010 13:41:19
Boston keeps dodging bullets, at least snowy ones. Of course, we paid the price in terms of high winds, heavy rain, downed trees and power lines, and scattered flooding.
Check out these videos of water spouts that occurred somewhere off the coast of Brazil on March 7, 2010, emailed to me by a friend down there. These would have been perfect to intercept by jet ski! A sign of future TVN projects maybe?? Enjoy!
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