|
News -
General
|
|
Written by Reed Patrick Timmer
|
|
Saturday, 19 July 2008 13:18 |
|
A classic mid-summer severe weather pattern is in place across the upper Missouri River Valley this afternoon and evening, which basically means a very minimal tornado threat and rapid evolution into a mesoscale convective system (MCS)/derecho. Thus, the main svr threat will be strong straight-line winds and large hail. The basic ingredients for this textbook MCS pattern are weak low-level shear, high CAPE, a subtle disturbance embedded in northwesterly flow, and a diffuse surface pattern. Storms are already exploding across southeast SD, but as expected, these storms have not exhibited supercellular structure. The RUC forecast for 00z for 850 mb and CAPE below tell the story:
The SPC has issued an MD for this area, and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for this area. There is a very small chance that if a cell can remain discrete through the evening while the LLJ intensifies, a brief tornado may touch down - but I'd say there is a better chance of winning the lottery. We'll see though... Crazier things have happened.
|
Twitter
Facebook
