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| News - General | |||
| Written by Reed Patrick Timmer | |||
| Sunday, 15 July 2007 10:04 | |||
Thunderstorms will once again initiate over the Rocky Mountains of western Alberta, and will become severe as they move eastward over the adjacent Plains where substantial moisture and instability will prevail. The tornado threat should be minimal today, since the best dynamics and wind shear will be just to the west of the instability axis. Shown below are some selected RUC forecasts for this evening. The yellow shading in the CAPE map above depicts values of 2500 J/kg or greater, which is forecast to exist from just south of Edmonton northward along the Plains adjacent to the mountains. The dewpoints are forecast to mix out over southern Alberta, including the Calgary area, limiting the instability there. As can be seen below in the 500 mb forecast for this evening, the jet streak will be just west of the instability axis as of 6:00 pm MT, so the best deep-layer shear will still be west of the area at least before 7:00 pm. Consequently, the low-level shear will also be lacking over this area before 7:00 pm, and the threat for tornadic supercells should be limited...although a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out. After 7:00 pm MT, when the jet streak is forecast to overspread the instability axis, wind shear will be on the increase, and supercells will be more likely with any discrete storms.  Stay tuned for more updates...several posters on this blog are local storm chasers in Alberta...so any reports/photos/video are much appreciated!
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