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| News - Hurricanes | |||
| Written by Matthew Van Every | |||
| Friday, 08 August 2008 17:01 | |||
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The Atlantic is boring...
Meanwhile... the Pacific is dominating with a frenzy of activity along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). There are currently 3 disturbances and one hurricane, Hernan. Hernan is currently a category 1 with sustained winds of 75kts (85mph), good symmetry and a visible eye that is occasionally clear. Hernan should be a moderate cat2 before its environment suppresses it. A 12 hour loop of IR satellite imagery shows little cirrus deck, which indicates a weak to moderate high pressure system aloft. This high-pressure system allows the storm to vent and is vital to the development and ability to be sustained. This is probably created by the close proximity of the other 3 disturbances. For example, Hernan is ejecting massive amounts of water vapor "exhaust" to the top of the troposphere where it must turn and disperse horizontally; at the same time the disturbances surrounding Hernan are trying to do the same. The "exhaust" from all 3 systems is colliding at about 20km above the ocean, weakening each systems high pressure therefore not allowing any of the systems to fully develop. For this reason, and a few others, I do not see disturbance 2 or 3 developing much more over the next day or two.  Disturbance 1, however, has a much better chance at development into a tropical depression then a storm over the next day or 2. This disturbance has a well-defined tropical wave and a developing low pressure bellow the deep convection. This disturbance should not face the same doom as the other 3 systems because it is much more segregated. A 12-hour loop of IR satellite imagery shows a developing high pressure aloft, which as described above will help the storm evacuate and allow it to build. This storm should move NW and parallel the West coast of Mexico for the next few days. It is very possible that this storm will be labeled a Tropical Depression by tonight and a Tropical Storm by tomorrow if the diurnal convection is intense enough tonight (there are little reasons not to do this). The Atlantic is boring... I hope the stalled cold front can fire enough stationary storms to get a Tropical Wave to form like Eduoard did.           
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