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News -
Hurricanes
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Written by Matthew Van Every
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Thursday, 14 August 2008 19:21 |
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Simply put, this wave is trying so hard!!!!!!!!!!! The environment looks very favorable for continued development over the next 72 hours. Latest IR satellite loop shows the beginnings of what could be a well-developed high pressure within the next day or so. If this high matures then there will be huge potential for an explosion of development as soon as the system moves away from the islands. The islands can both help and hurt the development of this storm. If the center moves to close then the mountains and land friction will significantly hinder development because the low will try to fill. On the other hand if the circulation is able to say far enough north of the main islands then the storm will be helped by the enhanced daytime convection that land daytime heating provides; simultaneously not being affected by land friction. This is the best case for rapid development.
A few days down the road... It looks like there will be a jet streak off the Atlantic Coast that could pull the storm to the north causing a probable landfall near South Carolina. This jet has the potential to do some interesting things to the tropical wave... depending on locations. If the storm meets the streak near the middle, where the winds are the strongest, then the storm will show some development just before being sheared apart, and carried out to sea. If the storm aligns with the right entrance region of the jet steak, then fireworks could happen.
Why? The right entrance region is a region of enhanced lift; this will lift air in the storm causing extreme rapped development due to intense convection. This could cause the storm to easily skip categories between NHC's standard advisories!
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