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Florida hurricane???

News - Hurricanes

Written by Reed Patrick Timmer

Saturday, 16 August 2008 10:43

After an explosion of convection overnight just south of Hispaniola, it appears that Tropical Storm Fay is struggling to organize due to the orography of Haiti despite favorable atmospheric conditions. Still though, all the models show Fay making landfall somewhere between the northeast Gulf Coast and South Florida, with the track trending east with each advisory. The current NHC advisory forecasts Fay to make landfall as a strong category 1 hurricane over southwest Florida, however, the high oceanic heat content and lack of shear are creating an environment favorable for explosive intensification.

The visible satellite loop below shows the decline of the convective burst this morning, as expected with the diurnal cycle... When I first pulled up the infra-red image this morning, I just about destroyed my computer because it looked like a cat 5 hurricane (not quite), but then realized that a majority of the convection was well south of the center, and likely due to orographic lift over Hispaniola. How Fay handles the mountainous terrain over Cuba will determine it's strength at landfall, and whether we decide to chase. We'll know for sure tomorrow, and if it appears Fay will make landfall as a cat 2 or higher hurricane -- we'll likely mobilize! Stay tuned for updates..