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News -
Hurricanes
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Written by Reed Patrick Timmer
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Thursday, 28 August 2008 12:56 |
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Different than model consensus, Tropical Storm Gustav moved west-southwest over night toward Jamaica in association with a convective explosion near and southwest of the center. Mesoscale forcing mechanisms such as this are very hard to predict, and add to the difficulty in forecasting of hurricane tracks. The recent model runs predict Gustav will move westward for a day or so before turning to the northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico. However, the same few models that accurately predicted last night's track of Gustav have the storm moving westward into the northern Yucatan Peninsula, which seems like a very real possibility based on climatology. Even if Gustav grazes the northern Yucatan, it will likely become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico despite increasing wind shear. Stay tuned for updates..
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