|
News -
Hurricanes
|
|
Written by Reed Patrick Timmer
|
|
Friday, 29 August 2008 08:49 |
|
The early morning GFDL is predicting a landfall near New Orleans on Monday with winds of category 3 strength (see figure below), which is an absolute worst case scenario track for Hurricane Gustav. The few days before landfall as predicted by the GFDL looks eerily similar to that of Katrina, with the western eyewall passing right over New Orleans, and the eastern eyewall over the MS Gulf Coast. It should also be realized that these dynamical models are often conservative in their intensity forecasts, as they often under-forecast the strength of rapidly intensifying storms, and this explosive strengthening appears likely over the next few days with Gustav. The official NHC forecast has the storm making landfall in the swamplands south of New Orleans Monday evening with a slow-down is expected just prior to landfall. It must be realized that substantial error exists in tropical cyclone forecast this far in advance, so there is still major uncertainty in any forecast. TVN is planning an intercept of Hurricane Gustav and will be leaving this weekend for a target somewhere along the central Gulf Coast. Stay tuned for updates
|
Twitter
Facebook
