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| News - Hurricanes | |||
| Written by Reed Patrick Timmer | |||
| Sunday, 28 October 2007 23:57 | |||
Tropical Storm Noel is likely producing catastrophic flooding over mountainous Hispaniola tonight, as explosive convection on the north side of the tropical cyclone continues to pound southern Haiti and Dominican Republic. While little strengthening has occurred over the last 24 hours, intense convection is ongoing on the north side of the circulation. The 11:00 pm EDT NHC advisory from Sunday night still indicated maximum sustained winds of 50 kts. An IR loop of Noel from over the last several hours is displayed below: The mountains over southeastern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic are 8000+ feet in elevation, and are located very near to the coast. Thus, orographic enhancement of the already heavy tropical rainfall must be out of control...Meaning that catastrophic flash floods and mud slides will be inevitable. Here is a picture of the beautiful south-Haiti coastline, showing the proximity of the massive mountains to the sea:  Tropical Storm Noel is forecast to track slowly NNW as an upper-level anticyclone strengthens and drifts to the east. Westerly wind shear and the mountains terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba will likely keep Noel from strengthening much more, but minimal hurricane status is definitely attainable. Fortunately through, Noel will not impact the eastern U.S. Coast, except for slightly higher surf at the beaches. The 5-day track forecast from the 11:00 pm EDT NHC advisory is displayed below: 
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