The necessary ingredients are coming together for a significant severe weather day in Kansas, western Missouri and Oklahoma. High instability and strong deep layer shear coupled with some surface boundaries will create an environment favorable for explosive supercell thunderstorm development this afternoon across southern Kansas, with the threat spreading into Missouri and Oklahoma later in the day. Given the parameters, strong tornadoes are possible with any storms that do form, with the storms themselves likely to be right-movers with very slow storm-relative motion. Dangerously large hail will also pose a significant threat.

The addition and placement of the surface boundaries, projected timing of initiation and general environment in this region make this perhaps the most threatening severe weather day of the year to date for the southern Plains. Numerous chasers will be covering this event, so be sure to follow along on the Live Video tab. As always, the public is urged to remain alert to changes and have a plan in place if warnings are issued!