The ingredients appear to be coming together for a widespread severe weather outbreak across western Illinois, Missouri and points south and west. Low level moisture has been streaming north into Missouri throughout the day, as the warm, moist airmass in place over this area continues to grow increasingly unstable. CAPE values are projected to reach 4,000 J/kg into Missouri by 00z! A remnant MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) currently over southwest Missouri will spark numerous severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front that will surge in from the west this evening. Discrete supercells with extremely large hail and strong tornadoes are possible, but an intense squall line is likely to be the dominant convective mode ahead of the front. Embedded supercells capable of tornadoes, destructive winds and very large hail will be possible with the squall line as well, so this is not to be discounted!

 

In Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, the airmass will be much more unstable, but a stronger cap over the area will suppress convection until later in the day. Explosive thunderstorm development is likely in this area this evening, where extremely large hail will be the predominant threat along with the possibility for isolated tornadoes.

Numerous chasers will be in the field for this event, so be sure to follow along by clicking the LIVE VIDEO tab at the top left. People in the risk areas should remain aware of the dangerous severe weather potential and monitor their local conditions as necessary!