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Strong tornadoes possible in the Southern Plains on Thursday! PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Reed Timmer   
Tuesday, 07 April 2009 16:22
07april2009_ehiA compact but potent shortwave trough is forecast to swing through the Southern Plains on Thursday, pumping 60+ dewpoints as far north as eastern Kansas ahead of a potent bulging dryline.  The NAM has been trending upward with the moisture, and has been consistently underdoing the moisture and initation forecasts since last year, so I would not be surprised if even higher dewpoints verify by Thursday afternoon.  As seen here, 0-1 km EHIs are forecast to exceed 4 over parts of eastern OK just east of the dryline by 00z, with 200+ 0-1 km helicities over most of the warm sector.  If the recent NAM models runs verify, I would not be surprised if a tornado outbreak ensued Thursday afternoon and evening over Eastern Oklahoma and Kansas into the Ozark Mountain Region.  We will be taking the Dominator on this chase, so be prepared for some extreme video!  We will also have several live streaming teams covering this event!  Stay tuned for updates.
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Last Updated on Tuesday, 07 April 2009 16:55
 
Discuss (8 posts)

crazyhorse2002
Re:Strong tornadoes possible in the Southern Plains on Thursday!
Apr 09 2009 08:57:52
Reed are you going to use Ka-band (35 GHz) on your chase vehicle, also are you part of the Vortex2 project this year.
#4776

Wazza350
Re:Strong tornadoes possible in the Southern Plains on Thursday!
Apr 09 2009 11:43:58
Well Thursday is here (well it is properly for us here in the UK lol), I'll be watching and waiting when I get home from work!
#4783

Hullie
Re:Strong tornadoes possible in the Southern Plains on Thursday!
Apr 09 2009 12:33:30
Well looks like the NAM has yet again underestimated Dp',moisture return into the central lower plains as the SPC have now upgraded the severe event to moderate around Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas.

www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
#4787
There are too many comments to list them all here. See the forum for the full discussion.
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Discuss this item on the forums. (8 posts)

Comments  

 
-4 #1 sooner_in_ks 2009-04-07 11:01
HOPEFULLY ALL THIS DAMN SNOW IS OVER AND DONE WITH,AND GET SOME STORMS ROLLING IN. TONIGHT I GOT SPOTTER TRIANING WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OUT OF WICHITA, IT'LL BE A LITTLE REFRESHER COURSE, I USED TO SPOT IN NEBRASKA BUT THAT WAS 6 YEARS AGO. GOOD LUCK WITH THE DOMINATOR.
 
 
+5 #2 James1 2009-04-07 12:14
good luck on the road Thursday. hope you get some good measurements.
 
 
+4 #3 tornadolover210 2009-04-07 12:26
Good luck guys! Hope the Dominator does well.
 
 
+3 #4 Justin_Hobson 2009-04-07 12:36
Created a facebook group for our University of Manitoba Storm Chase Team...stay informed about severe weather North of 49.

Search University of Manitoba Storm Chase Team and request to join. Open to people experienced in weather.
 
 
+4 #5 chaserchad 2009-04-07 12:38
good luck, and don't be surprised if a green durango with wisc. plates says hi
somewhere on the road on thurs.
 
 
-10 #6 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-07 12:40
Good Luck to you Reed, man earlier I could have swore that the SPC said that there was only a 15% chance! Weird, have fun with your New DOMINATOR TVN Team, I wish you the best of luck and stay safe. -Brandon
 
 
+3 #7 Zack_OKC 2009-04-07 13:13
Brandon - a 15% categorical area for severe weather doesn't necessarily mean that there is literally only a 15% are of severe weather... lol.

I may be chasing this event... the only downside is the terrible terrain over the favored area... lots of hills and trees. Hopefully it slows a little and occurs over more chase friendly terrain!
 
 
-3 #8 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-07 13:42
Zack,
I know it's just usually when something like this happens they at least have like a 30% Risk area for 25 Miles around a certain point. -Brandon
 
 
+5 #9 Zack_OKC 2009-04-07 14:02
wow... why am I getting low rankings? I don't think I said anything offensive or dumb... someone must like hitting the thumbs down button LOL jk.

I see your point Brandon but I think it's because there are still some discrepancies regarding this event. If I see negative 1 I'm going to kill someone! lol just kidding :P
 
 
+6 #10 JC Surfs 2009-04-07 15:20
Reed is absolutely correct... After all the model perusing.. It should be a good day in the central/southern plains..

The spinning low has made landfall on the west coast and the Gulf of Mex is looking for a business merger...

http://severewarningsystems.com/aa.prediction.html

Also the weekend is looking good in the southern states.
 
 
-7 #11 jjam2112 2009-04-07 16:42
Sounds exciting, TRC will be there too streaming Live. C ya out there Reed.

www.TornadoRaiders.com
 
 
+1 #12 reedtimmer 2009-04-07 17:25
The 00z runs are a lot more progressive and have a narrower instability axis, pushing the warm sector into the Ozarks by 00z to the south. to the north of the dryline bulge there might be a chance of tornadoes in southeast OK. This run could be an anomaly though!
 
 
+1 #13 Keskiolut 2009-04-07 19:47
DOMINATOOOOOR.

gonna be watching live stream and gl reed
 
 
-10 #14 Caleb 2009-04-07 23:07
we're in for it on Friday AGAIN AAAAAAAAAAAAA This system looks very interesting This COULD produce a pretty severe outbreak!!
 
 
+1 #15 bthomas1348 2009-04-08 02:58
hey is there any storm spotter classes close to st joseph mo if there is send me a email my email in
 
 
+4 #16 StormyInKentucky 2009-04-08 03:48
Good luck out there guys! There is a very small chance that we will get anything over this way, but I'll still be out waiting for it :)
 
 
0 #17 Stacygifford 2009-04-08 07:21
I don’t know much about metrology (am learning though :lol: ) but I like the way this is looking... I won’t be able to get to OK but I’ll be in east-central Texas for sure…
Be nice… don’t “thumbs down” jjam2112
~Stacy G
 
 
0 #18 thedook 2009-04-08 10:33
Good luck guys with the Dominator. I'm in the Dallas area, I hope this outbreak comes our way!
 
 
+2 #19 MDH 2009-04-08 10:39
Looking at this system already developing on satellite, I'm not 100% sure it's going to be a bomb of a system but tomorrow it appears like there may be weaker tornadoes. Moisture isn't an issue. CAPE is looking like it may be weak. It does look like over the remainder of the month, however, there will be lots of severe storm systems, including one which could hit around the 16-17th. But that is just my own interperetation.

edit: other forum members are saying 17th on that one... hmmm
 
 
+2 #20 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-08 13:14
Quite Weird Today, there was a tornado reported, hopefully nobody was hurt. Here's The Report.
1900 3 SW BURLEY CASSIA ID 4251 11383 TORNADO SPOTTED BY CASSIA COUNTY SHERIFF DEPUTY ALONG 200 WEST. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. WAS ON THE GROUND FOR LESS THAN 5 MINUTES. (PIH)
 
 
+4 #21 Matthew Chatelain 2009-04-08 13:36
I can't wait to see the Dominator out there tomorrow!!!
 
 
+6 #22 JC Surfs 2009-04-08 14:39
@ Matt.. You bet! Is team thunder runnin the chase too? There is a "two" term for Dominator at TVN. The "dominator" will be rumbling.. and team thunder will dominate!

Best to all on the chase.. Looking forward to "hopefully" a meso filled day... Cheers.
 
 
-3 #23 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-08 22:45
Sorry to go posting again, but.... Reed, when your chasing today could you do us a favor??? Take some pictures of the TVN Dominator in action?? Don't have to if your near a tornado though! :) Good Luck With Chasing Today and With The New Dominator I know it'll be a good chase day today, just because your TVN! :) -Brandon
 
 
+5 #24 HeatherB 2009-04-09 00:30
I just looked and SPC now has a small moderate area so hopefully everyone will have a good day. Good luck for everyone chasing today!!
 
 
+2 #25 Tornadofan504 2009-04-09 02:51
Today looks like a big day!!!,good luck everybody and stay safe!!!
 

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