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Moderate Risk Tomorrow! PDF Print E-mail
News - Tornadoes
Written by Reed Timmer   
Wednesday, 01 April 2009 11:20
01april2009_moderateA moderate risk has been issued for tomorrow across parts of the Lower Mississippi River valley east to the Southeast U.S. as a potent storm system ejects from the Plains.  The models are forecasting a 40-50 knot diurnal low-level jet over most of the warm sector, as well as sufficient instability and deep-layer shear for tornadoes.  As is typically the case with major severe weather outbreaks, no cap will be present over ample instability over a very large area east of the boundary.  We will have several chasers streaming live video during this event, so be sure to check out the live tracker!
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Discuss (7 posts)

athensga
Re:Moderate Risk Tomorrow!
Apr 02 2009 13:14:21
Makes sense already there's been a tornado reported in Troy, AL. Looks to be really rough day for the south and SE.
#3964

NCtraveler
Re:Moderate Risk Tomorrow!
Apr 02 2009 14:03:20
A nice 15% tornado area over MS, AL & GA. This is going to be a good day. A good, good day.... Plus all I get is rain, though I might get some severe weather overnight.
#3969

updraft1
Re:Moderate Risk Tomorrow!
Apr 02 2009 17:00:13
Turned on the computer, logged on to the site..as usual.
Checked the Live Streams and..... oh yes... theres 4 car icons showing.
Just about 6pm here in England so not sure when it might all kick off over with you guys but I just know that i will be spending most of my evening back and forward to the computer for sure.
Good luck guys and i hope we get to see some good stuff.
#3995
There are too many comments to list them all here. See the forum for the full discussion.
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Comments  

 
-11 #1 BobBarnett 2009-04-01 05:34
Gimme a break Reed. I gotta finish my taxes tomr :lol:
 
 
+4 #2 miycalr 2009-04-01 06:05
This looks like a bad one. What is your take on pinpointing naders in that area of is it too big right now
 
 
+3 #3 Justin_Hobson 2009-04-01 06:19
The 4/1/09 12z GFS and WRF models are actually hinting at something for Saturday (4th).

SPC has no mention of this. All that is missing is the moisture. It could be better of course, but if the atmosphere does 'juice up', they might have to throw out at least a slight risk for the late afternoon/evening in Central Kansas into Oklahoma.

I wouldn't write off this day yet folks. This could be one of those sneak attack events that leaves the forecasters scrambling. Don't always believe the SPC. They have their hands tied right now with tomorrow's probable outbreak, and sunday's.

Remember that high risk last June that busted for the most part?

CNN even covered it, reporting live from the 'High Risk' zone, and it wasn't that bad.

Cheers,
 
 
+3 #4 xtremevortex 2009-04-01 06:23
It looks like a good one!!

Can't wait till the chasing starts.

I'll be waiting... :zzz
 
 
+2 #5 Thaimal 2009-04-01 06:50
Looks like it's gonna be crazy. I remember there being a lot of trees in the MS/AL area, so be careful if you're chasing tomorrow.
 
 
+2 #6 athensga 2009-04-01 07:13
Yeah I'm in that area of moderate severe risk, I think this may be really nasty. Where I'm at there are lots of rolling hills and trees, so it's kinda hard to make out a tornado from a good distance.
 
 
-8 #7 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-01 07:26
Looking Great They Might issue a High Risk! Sure Hope! Nice Vehicle Guys! -Brandon
 
 
-1 #8 sean 2009-04-01 08:25
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOoOOoOoOO~! it moved east ... 9am forcast from weather channel what KEYED on little rock.. guess i gotta drive farther :( .. gas gas gas.. lol Oh well, tomorrow looks WAY worth it ... O! by the way WTFG! TVN! TAHOE LOOKS AWSOME! i woulda rode in that nxt to the humVboats they had me on in tikrit! GOOD JOB GUYS HAPPY HUNTING!

The other Sean
114th aviation ops spec.
Camp Robinson,Arkansas
 
 
+2 #9 sean 2009-04-01 08:28
Quoting ToledoWeatherSpotter:
Looking Great They Might issue a High Risk! Sure Hope! Nice Vehicle Guys! -Brandon


From the looks of the models .. promise a high risk :D ! looks like the first textbook hp spread... any opin. vets?
 
 
+2 #10 eastmapletornado280 2009-04-01 08:44
Quoting sean:
Quoting ToledoWeatherSpotter:
Looking Great They Might issue a High Risk! Sure Hope! Nice Vehicle Guys! -Brandon


From the looks of the models .. promise a high risk :D ! looks like the first textbook hp spread... any opin. vets?




I was thinking this also. The biggest outbreak of the year so far! :lol:
 
 
0 #11 Caleb 2009-04-01 09:24
This system could be VERY dangerous tomarrow. There is not much of a cap so storms might be going in the morning
 
 
+2 #12 Zack_OKC 2009-04-01 09:41
Yeah we all though this Monday and Friday of last week too.... just saying 8)
 
 
+1 #13 Keskiolut 2009-04-01 09:43
gonna watch live stream
 
 
+2 #14 rolie 2009-04-01 10:36
are you april fooling us or not! lol :lol:
 
 
+2 #15 koritamashii 2009-04-01 11:18
I'm hoping this isn't nature's idea of a prank - I'd love to see some action... This early in the year, it could go either way, but from the sound of things, it's going to be a big day.

w00t!
 
 
0 #16 miycalr 2009-04-01 12:53
Does SPC forecast using the 12z GFS most of the time
 
 
-2 #17 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-01 13:59
Alright tomorrow is looking like a really bad day, If you don't have a weather radio please go out and buy one if your in the severe weather area! "There IS a Potential for Long Tracking Violent Tornadoes After Dark!" Quoted From AccuWeather we are looking for it only to be half-way done by time night falls, we only have isolated chances in Toledo, but just spotting a funnel will be hard just to get a tornado warning out! It's not fun! Stay Safe All We Need You Here at TVN! I don't want ANY reports of Fatalities or injuries! Stay Safe! -Brandon
 
 
+6 #18 James1 2009-04-01 14:18
well the worst part is that it'll be going right through the south which means trees and or hills will obscure the tornado. Nighttime tornadoes and all that combined= :sad: . Very dangerous.
 
 
+5 #19 Heidi 2009-04-01 14:45
The NAM and GFS are not looking as "high-risk-ish" as they were a couple of runs ago. For the 18z timeframe, the 00z model run is showing CAPE at about half of what the 12z run was showing; it doesn't seem to be a matter of timing shifting around, either. It almost looks like the shear may outrun the instability again. That's a good thing for the people living in MS if it does work out that way.
 
 
+1 #20 throwaway 2009-04-01 14:54
well over here in illinois Poplar Grove to be exact. We had several funnels yesterday and an unconfirmed tornado on the ground. if you go to www.wrex.com you will see the photo. The problem I have is we have video of some rotation from over the security gate where I live. Weather radio never sounded. From what I am hearing the NWS did not believe the reports. Anyway kinda scary knowing now that tornadoes can hit and there will not be any weather radio going of.. real comforting
 
 
+1 #21 EMB 2009-04-01 15:58
Here in the Seattle area the storm systems have been exceptionally powerful for this time of year- thunder snow hail wind and heavy rain with cold temps. Todays storm that will hit the South this weekend will be prime for severe if the instability holds on their end. Tomorrow should be pretty active but i think late this weekend will be good as well. Today Seattle saw lowland snow accumulations and hail and its headed towards prime conditions!
 
 
+1 #22 sooner_in_ks 2009-04-01 16:12
YEAH- JUST LIKE THEY SAID A WEEK AGO MONDAY WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A "BAD" DAY HERE IN KANSAS-----AND DIDN'T GET SQUAT. THEY GOT SOME RAIN AND HAIL EAST OF ME AND DOWN AROUND HUTCHINSON AND WICHITA, BUT THAT WAS IT! I GOT TO SEE IT TO BELIEVE IT!!
 
 
0 #23 JC Surfs 2009-04-01 16:39
Heidi... Wow.. You are getting really good at your model research.. I think you are right.. MS was "and still" a concern.. See how it materializes.
 
 
+2 #24 Tornadofan504 2009-04-01 19:27
the moderate risk is about 150 miles to the NNE of me so it likes a interesting day TOM.
 
 
+1 #25 Keskiolut 2009-04-01 23:37
storms startng to formed
 

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