A powerful Winter storm system currently making its way into the Ozarks and middle-Mississippi Valley region will interact with an unseasonably warm, moist Gulf airmass later this evening, prompting what is likely to be the first large-scale severe weather episode of 2012.

Forecast models continue to suggest that strong, southerly wind-fields in the lowest levels of the atmosphere will readily transport this uninhibited current of Gulf moisture well into the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley, allowing dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s to migrate potentially as far north as the Missouri bootheel by sunset or just thereafter; this should provide plenty of fuel for thunderstorms that are likely to develop ahead of a cold front that will sweep across Arkansas later this afternoon. Low and mid-level wind shear is very favorable for thunderstorms with sustained rotating updrafts; any storms that are able to develop along and ahead of the front will have the potential for strong, possibly long-lived tornadoes, especially, and unfortunately, after dark, as the low-level wind shear is forecast to intensify in conjunction with the arrival of the most abundant moisture from the Gulf. The possibility of a nighttime tornado event presents an especially dangerous situation for residents of central and Eastern Arkansas, west Tennessee, northern Mississippi. As always, persons in the outlined areas are strongly urged to have their severe weather plans in place, monitor local media and, above all, heed warnings when they are issued--NOAA Weather Radios with fresh batteries are a must for events such as these. Numbers of storm chasers will be in the field as well; their activities can be monitored by following our Live Page. Stay tuned, as Reed will be providing updates as possible, from Twitter and Facebook, as the day unfolds.