An active severe weather pattern will return to the picture beginning tomorrow, as a strong upper-level trough will eject out of the Rockies and eventually crash into the Plains. The GFS is being slightly more progressive with the timing of things than the NAM, but they're in otherwise good agreement on the placement of the severe weather that should unfold. Right now it appears as though western Kansas into Nebraska will be the area to watch tomorrow, where 0-1km storm-relative helicity will be strong over an area of moderate instability.

The models are suggesting that a more widespread severe weather event is more likely for Thursday, as the instability will likely be greater than Wednesday and over a wider area, with the risk area stretching from South Dakota to Louisiana! The tornado potential should be highest over southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. Discrete supercells appear likely for a time on Thursday before a squall line is expected to become the dominant mode later in the evening.

We'll have multiple teams covering these events, so be sure to follow the Live page (now found at the top of the page as a tab)!