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| News - Snow | |||
| Written by Reed Timmer | |||
| Sunday, 25 January 2009 20:49 | |||
A strong trough of low pressure has been deepening over the Western U.S. this weekend, and will slowly "shear-out" and eject eastward by Midweek. In response to this upper storm system, a surface low pressure center will form over South Texas by Monday-Tuesday, and move northeastward along the baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) by Wednesday. Precipitation driven by strong warm advection over a relatively shallow cold layer at low-levels will develop over Northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma by midday Monday, and spread/develop rapidly northeastward in the Ozarks by later Monday, and into the Ohio River Valley thereafter.   The NAM forecast panels above are valid for Monday evening, with 24-hr precipitation at left and surface-500 mb maximum temperature at right (which is very helpful in determining precipitation type). The NAM (and a majority of other models) are forecasting a quarter to half inch of ice across Oklahoma, with possibly up to an inch of ice accumulation in the Ozarks and points northeastward. While a vast majority of this precipitation will be frozen north of the Red River, the exact precipitation types (snow, sleet, vs freezing rain) are very difficult to pinpoint even this close to the event, especially over Oklahoma into the Ozarks where the low-level system will just be getting going. For Oklahoma, I've seen several of these "late-blooming" events where a significant ice storm is predicted, and much of the OK state is consumed by a massive dry-slot and we nothing as the system verifies further north -- or develops just a little bit too late. While this seemed to happen a majority of the time the last several years here, the crippling ice storm from last year reminded us all in Central Oklahoma that it can still happen.. As seen above, the maximum column temperature is forecast to be well-above freezing over most of the precipitation area, except for the northern part - where precipitation type will be predominantly sleet and snow. The central and southern part of the winter storm watch area (as seen below) will be pounded by sleet and freezing rain, and possibly changing to all rain depending on the exact track of the system.  TVN will be streaming live from Norman, OK during this event, so stay tuned for updates! The NWS graphicast for Central OK is shown below... IT'S HAPPENING!!! 
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