Sorry I have not been updating the blog recently..  We were driven into the ground during this storm season and I dropped the ball on my consistent blog updates, but the plan from here on out is to resume the near daily updates as weather permits.  If the weather is quiet, then I'll present case studies of past big tornado events.  Today though, the focus will be on the first REAL trough of the season ejecting across the Northern Plains over the next few days.

Based on the last few GFS and NAM model runs, it looks like extreme eastern Montana and western North Dakota/Northwest South Dakota will be prime for tornadic supercells tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon and evening as a massive trough impinges on the Northern Plains and 40+ knot low level jet develops during evening across the warm sector.  Last night's NAM depicted the dominating tornado event of the year up there, but this morning's NAM and GFS are not quite as favorable - at least before 00z.  Still though, I would not be surprised to see several tornado reports if there will be any spotters/chasers up in that area, as the LLJ really cranks up just after 00z...which can be seen in the 00z vs 03z 0-1 km EHI's from the the 12z NAM below:

Notice how the EHI values blow up between 00z and 03z, with values exceeding 5 in extreme Southwest ND and western SD as the low level jet intensifies near and after sunset.  Any supercells that remain discrete in this environment will likely go insane as the low-level shear increases dramatically between 7 pm and 10 pm.  One important factor for chasers to note is that sunset is much later this far north, so it is very possible that a tornado would be easily visible at 10 pm in that prime environment.  Another very real possibility with these large powerful troughs is that the LLJ may intensify faster than the models indicate, which would of course be much more favorable for tornadoes earlier in the day.   I've also noticed that with these Northern Plains/Southern Canada events, the models typically underdo the low-level flow and thus the low-level wind shear, so pattern recognition is key.  If the low-level flow is stronger than the models indicate, then I would not be surprised for better instability to develop further north into Southeast Saskatchewan as well, with the nose of the low-level jet residing there as well.  I know Justin Hobson of Winnipeg is considering chasing the Carlisle, SK area if this materializes, which could be a very good target considering all these factors.  Unfortunately, I'll have to sit out these next few events as I absolutely have to finish my dissertation or I'll be facing some big problems!  Thursday also looks interesting in IA/MN area as the trough rapidly ejects, but the LLJ may be a little too far to the east as the system becomes a little sheared out.  Nevertheless, there may be sufficient residual low-level flow for tornadoes over this area.  Stay tuned for updates, and be sure to check the Live video page for real-time action over the next few days.