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Severe weather outbreak likely this Friday and beyond! PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Reed Timmer   
Thursday, 23 April 2009 01:58
25april2009_outlookA textbook extended severe weather pattern is shaping up for the Central U.S. beginning late tomorrow (Friday) across Nebraska into Iowa.  While most of the warm sector will be kept storm-free by an intense cap on Friday, there will be a chance for supercells at the northern end of the warm sector from Central Nebraska east into Iowa, where the convective inhibition will be minimized and upper forcing maximized.  Low-level and deep layer shear will be dominating for this event on Friday, so if a storm can fire it could be out of control.  The real insanity begins on Saturday and Sunday across the Southern Plains as a substantial shortwave moves east from the mean West Coast trough.  We will be streaming live video starting on Friday, so stay tuned for updates!
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Discuss (7 posts)

Amara9
Re:Severe weather outbreak likely this Friday and beyond!
Apr 25 2009 21:00:06
Hey does anyone else know were the SRV blue car went on the Live Stream? Gettin a little nasty up here in southern Ontario!
#6752

mikeO
Re:Severe weather outbreak likely this Friday and beyond!
Apr 26 2009 03:20:12
...a bit like typing in purple - hard to locate the words!! Perhaps their stream went offline whilst moving or escaping some event. No doubt we'll get the info soon enough.
#6790

Amara9
Re:Severe weather outbreak likely this Friday and beyond!
Apr 26 2009 03:22:19
Purple is my favourite colour Yea they came back in a bit so I dont know but I got them back so thats ok now! Patience pays off!
#6791
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+2 #1 xmesox 2009-04-22 16:21
Great stuff, look forward to seeing what this set-up can produce after a few back and forths from the models for a few days. With it only hours away it should be almost a certainty that something will happen. Those upper level wind profiles do look amazing.
 
 
+1 #2 MDH 2009-04-22 16:32
I was just looking at the models on twisterdata as I came back here to talk about it but it looks like you're already there. Is discovery always around to film when systems like this spark off?

Good luck over the next week!
 
 
+1 #3 jdeluxtornadochaser 2009-04-22 16:40
Yeah! That sounds very good! 8)
Let's going to watch the live streaming video... :-)

Good luck, guys!
 
 
+1 #4 Tornadofan504 2009-04-22 17:40
I going to be watching the streams too guys!!!,Good luck!! :-)
 
 
-5 #5 sooner_in_ks 2009-04-22 22:26
Reed, are you guys gonna be involved with VORTEX2 thats starting May 1st??
 
 
+6 #6 JC Surfs 2009-04-22 22:51
It should be a REALLY GOOD weekend... aaahhh!!! I have to chill and catch up on stuff here in Cali.. After the last incident.. I just want to be out there..

I put together a clip focusing on the before.. during.. and after.. of the destructive tornado footage in Kansas 4-18.. The wind was so strong during the interview with the people that lived there.. It had to be left out. This vid shows the graphic detail of tornado 6.. INSANE CLIP..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejhYLS8x_e4&feature=player_embedded

More on the research we are continuing..
http://SevereWarningSystems.com

Dominate out there.. Team TVN Rules !!!
 
 
-6 #7 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-23 00:53
Yeah I've been watching this for about two weeks, but I was very confused, the models seemed to agree, but the forecasters didn't! It Really Confused Me but I know it'll happen! Good Luck!
-Brandon
 
 
+3 #8 Dannyc 2009-04-23 01:33
I'm located in Omaha,Ne maybe if I have time I will chase! Why does weather always happen when I have a busy weekend!! haha. Good luck to everyone who will be chasing this event!
 
 
+2 #9 mockg 2009-04-23 02:57
Im located in norfolk so looks like i might be head out to see if anything develops. Seems like we always a protective bubble where severe weather never develops. I cant even remember the last time county was under a tornado warning.
 
 
+2 #10 EMB 2009-04-23 03:20
This western low is looking like a good catalyst- here just east of seattle we went from record highs of 78 to 46 as a daytime high- there was also some pretty good winds and spotty hail- the trough does look abit nasty so i think there should be some pretty big storms out of this. I think it will be sporadic and not a high number but the individual cells should do well in developement- maybe a chance at a couple ef3's. in the right areas.
 
 
+1 #11 bugbunny2010 2009-04-23 05:39
Get 70s up in NY State by tomorrow
 
 
+3 #12 MNthunder 2009-04-23 06:41
Dannyc.... im in the same boat as you, always busy on the active weather days... im kinda luck friday... i know the action will probably be more into iowa... ill probably hang out here in minnesota, but depending what time i get out the door... iowa is only 90 minutes away... 60 if drive fast... i should be out somewhere
 
 
+2 #13 Gilgamesh 2009-04-23 09:25
Sure was warm and windy in Minneapolis today. Would be nice to get a little storm up here tomorrow.

MNthunder, you have an open seat if you go chasing?
 
 
+2 #14 MNthunder 2009-04-23 09:54
still is pretty windy, my other seat is full, got a buddy of mine, this will be my first time out ever... not counting the few times ive gone around the county when a storm came around, so just gonna use tomorrow as a learning experience, i dont have mobile internet... im not gonna be able to get out till almost 2, so might be late for the bigger storms to the south... i leave out of cannon falls (about halfway to rochester from st. paul)... im gonna check the morning forcasts and stuff... message me if you head out and the area, and we could meet up around there...
 
 
+2 #15 bullkills 2009-04-23 11:03
MNTHUNDER....
hey i live in worthington,mn
and also thinking of going out there tomorrow.
my first time too
an trying to get mobile internet
but dont know if i can but yea man we never get nothing sever here either.
an now that theirs a chance im taking full advantage of it...
good luck since we are virgins to chasing
 
 
+2 #16 Dannyc 2009-04-23 11:09
Yeah I'll kinda be out in it I think!! Haha! I'm going to Wayne, NE actually tomorrow night around 10 or so. I might drive through it!! Better than nothing right? Haha! Good luck to TVN and anyone else chasing the event! Be safe. God bless!
 
 
+2 #17 Gilgamesh 2009-04-23 11:17
If there is anyone who is chasing tomorrow leaving from the Twin Cities area and has an open seat please send me a message. I'm also new to the chase scene but would love to be out tomorrow. Don't really want to drive down by myself tomorrow but I might have to.
 
 
+2 #18 MNthunder 2009-04-23 11:44
hey bullkills,
yeah ill may end that far... depends how fast this cold front moves through and at what time... who knows maybe ill run into you (hopefully not literally cuz that would probably hurt) only mobile internet ill have is my buddies phone, otherwise thats it, im just callin' my bro for updates
 
 
+1 #19 michaelwmoss 2009-04-23 16:38
The extent of that ridge breaking down is going to be key in where the activity sets up at and depending on the EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) will also determine the amount of capping. But Reed you are correct. If a Discrete Supercell fires in that environment, it could go nuts very quickly! Could see several Summer-Like MCS(s), MCC(s) with this setup to. Maybe a Derecho event in there as well?
 
 
-1 #20 mttmcg76 2009-04-23 17:54
I LIVE IN PANA, ILLINOIS AND WILL BE HEADING TO THE WESTERN IOWA/NEBRASKA BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. SHOULD BE THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. I HOPE WE ALL SEE SOME GREAT ACTION. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE AND BE SAFE.
 
 
+1 #21 MNthunder 2009-04-23 21:12
looks to me, storm prediction center has moved the treat further east, if they dont fire too soon, i might make it out...
 
 
+1 #22 frazzled 2009-04-23 21:29
Just wondering, but is there any chance this could move up to Southern Ontario?
 
 
+1 #23 SW2602 2009-04-23 21:56
Granted the big thing today is in Iowa and Minnesota. I have to wait until tomorrow or Sunday here in SW KS. Hoping I get off work in time to head out chasing. On the 18th, I was was going to head to Kalvesta but I decided to chase the southern storms hoping would come of that, nothing spectacular, but I did catch a brief touchdown. I wish it wouldn't stayed on the ground, it would been a good size tornado, but it lifted right away, so I got the low end of the stick. Oh well, there will be days like that. Good luck to all the chasers today have fun and BE CAREFUL.
 
 
+1 #24 bullkills 2009-04-23 22:17
can anybody give me an idea of were would be the best place to chase
i live in worthington,mn im 1 hour away from south dakota,and 30 minutes from iowa
if anybody can help with a tip of were to go will apprutiated
thanks
 
 
+5 #25 Justin_Hobson 2009-04-23 22:59
Sunday looks the best dynamically and thermodynamically. The upper level support for Saturday looks displaced. Sure storms will rotate, but they won't be long lasting. Now Sunday around Dodge City looks impressive! I'd put my money on seeing a nice tornado that day!
 

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