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Large Upper Level Trough Digs Into Southern Plains Late This Week, Severe Weather Probable! PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Dave Holder   
Monday, 13 April 2009 23:06

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A large upper level low will dig into the central part of the country in the next few days, bringing with it severe weather and the chance for tornadoes. The models are coming into agreement that this low will become cut-off, meaning it will be quasi-stationary for a few days until it gets picked up by the main flow. In terms of storm chasing this means there will be a series of days where severe weather will be possible. The wind fields with this system are impressive, and right now the models are depicting quite a lot of directional shear, or a lot of turning with height. One limiting factor, and this seems to be becoming a reoccuring theme for this season thus far, is the amount of quality moisture that returns from the Gulf of Mexico. A series of cold fronts has scoured out much of the Gulf. However, with the impressive dynamics of this system, I would not be surprised to see quite a few tornado reports from Thursday through Saturday!

 

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+5 #1 Smudge 2009-04-13 13:38
Seems pretty promising, trusting your interpretation. At least it should give chasers plenty of options, hopefully you'll get some good footage.

I liked your funnel cloud footage from the 9th, I always love the build up when its just reaching down from the sky like that..
 
 
+5 #2 xmesox 2009-04-13 14:13
One can only hope, but the models have gone from looking great for the past few days. To the past 4 runs looking terrible. The 00z is continuing with the terrible, no CAPE present and dew points not reach 60. Could be an underestimate from the models, but not looking as likely as 2 days ago it seems. Note : The 06z NAM is looking better again with return flow better than the previous 3 or 4 runs, moisture reaching 60-65 is forecast to move up into Oklahoma from Texas on Thursday.. Let's see what the 06z GFS says, despite what the models say though my gut feel is Thursday through to Sunday will be good. SPC has a slight risk area issued for Thursday and also now have day 4 and 5 highlighted.
 
 
+3 #3 JC Surfs 2009-04-13 14:40
Right on Dave.. Think you are right in the possibilities for a good tornado count. Confidence is good on this one. Looks like some good fun for a few days for sure.. Really looking forward to being out there.. SPC comments on the last 4-5 day coincides with the models..

Time for central plains meso... cheers
 
 
0 #4 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-13 18:43
Looking Good! Thanks For The Update Dave! -Brandon
 
 
0 #5 scottdg2008 2009-04-13 20:29
ight in my backyard! I Love it. maybe i will get some good Pictures.
 
 
0 #6 spartanelite 2009-04-13 20:35
Man this year seems all of the storms are dying before they reach me in South Easyern Ohio. Any chance of this next one making its way this far.
 
 
-15 #7 sooner_in_ks 2009-04-13 22:54
Tell me about it. The damn storms ain't even getting to me---yet. they're close, but not close enough.
If I do happen to get storms rolling through here where I'm at--I ain't gonna hold my breath cause I got to see it to believe it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
 
+2 #8 EMB 2009-04-14 01:04
This low is strong with below average temps above average winds and instability within itself- i live close to seattle and this system bought in 36 hours about 2.25 inches of rain claps of thunder hail gusty winds 30-35 and snow last night and as i write. Its slow movement should really give the opportunity for a multiday event- if the gulf gets its act in order this should be a decent second outbreak- check out the windfields and size of this low- its more like a November type system atleast for us in the NW.
 
 
-19 #9 tornadofan 2009-04-14 01:12
everyone seems to think im wrong..alright will see what happens!
 
 
+15 #10 xmesox 2009-04-14 02:47
Not wanting to start an arguement here but tornadofan- 55-60 dew points are nothing to be very excited about. Those are low for this time of the year, idealy you'd want them in the upper 60s... Granted that 55-60 can produce but that's generally the minimum dew points needed for it to be conductive for tornadoes, so hardly a reason to try be sarcastic. May want to go check some more facts about tornado formation and the conditions needed suitable for tornado development there buddy. :-* Thankfully this time most of the other aspects such as good shear profiles are helping the lack of moisture a bit.
 
 
+4 #11 EMB 2009-04-14 03:47
Quoting xmesox:
Not wanting to start an arguement here but tornadofan- 55-60 dew points are nothing to be very excited about. Those are low for this time of the year, idealy you'd want them in the upper 60s... Granted that 55-60 can produce but that's generally the minimum dew points needed for it to be conductive for tornadoes, so hardly a reason to try be sarcastic. May want to go check some more facts about tornado formation and the conditions needed suitable for tornado development there buddy. :-* Thankfully this time most of the other aspects such as good shear profiles are helping the lack of moisture a bit.

yes if the dew points come up to mid 60s with this shear profile and the size and movement of this low then bang! Weve been pumping out the systems here in the NW but the plains and gulf hasnt been its normal self- still think it will above average for this weeks end(thr fday sat sun)
 
 
+6 #12 WesleyL 2009-04-14 03:59
55-60 dew points can make it happen when your on the caprock in the TX/OK Panhandle regions. Your at an elevation of 3000 feet or more in places. Thats not like central OK (Norman - 1100). You can scrape by with much lower dew points and still get the job done out here. That why they call it "Caprock/Panhandle Magic". If the current models verify lower than what is forecasted currently though, dont expect too much other than some rain. Look at April 21, 2007 - 55 to 60 dews and the caprock = great tornado day. Thats one thing with meteorology and severe weather in particular, no system is the same as the last.
 
 
+8 #13 ricco19 2009-04-14 04:20
I don't understand anything you guys are talking about, but I pretended too.
 
 
+7 #14 Heidi 2009-04-14 06:24
Brian Emfinger is currently streaming aerial footage of the damage from the EF-3 that hit Mena last week, FYI.
 
 
-1 #15 Zack_OKC 2009-04-14 06:39
tornadofan, pipe down and do your research buddy.

55-60 degree dews are low for this time of year, now on the other hand if it was mid to late winter then we would agree with you.
 
 
-18 #16 tornadofan 2009-04-14 09:22
lol im laughing at all of you right now...if u dont believe me then why dont u go check out the forecast discussion for the dodge city, ks area and tell me im wrong again!
 
 
0 #17 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-14 11:19
The Dodge City, "Weather Story" is just saying that there could be winds and hail nothing on Tornadoes. "A few of these storms may be severe with the main hazard being strong winds and hail." I am not sure what your pointing out, nothing big. -Brandon
 
 
+3 #18 phoenixrisen7 2009-04-14 11:35
I agree with the concerns with the moisture. But I'm actually a little optimistic about that. Rate of evaporation from Sunday's rainfall in Oklahoma could play here. On top of that, that low looks quite strong. Stiff enough to yank up some ample moisture. The latest GFS runs got real interesting as far as the wind profiles are concerned. The shearing from 500 to 850 MB is impressive for Thursday and Friday. Very interesting is the fact that the GFS is also starting to have some patches of 60+ dewpoints in SW OK around 7 p.m. Thursday.
 
 
0 #19 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-15 01:36
S.P.C Upgraded to 30% our chase target area for tomorrow is Clarendon, TX. SPC and NWS in Amarillo is saying Severe Likely along the Dry Line. "It Promotes a Vertical Circulation." Good Chase Day. -Brandon
 
 
0 #20 EMB 2009-04-15 02:01
AS i stated earlier- i think this will be ok for developement in certain areas but im scaling back my multiday comments- unless something really changes- thursday afternoon and evening into friday looks allright but nothing like last week and the tornado scenario looks less likely- this low will lose strength once it hits the rockies because of its slow movement) then it looks like nothing to very end of April as the west will quiet down for a week or so. It did bring snow to vegas and the winds are whipping so its still strong but looks more like rain and thunderstorms with hail will be the big story!
 
 
0 #21 ToledoWeatherSpotter 2009-04-15 02:14
I am sorry to post again, but on the 27th-28th there is 3000+ J kg -1 of Cape in Texas! Dew Points 70-75F! It's Amazing! The Vertical Velocity, and Vorticity isn't to great, but Reed you have to check this out! The Shear is Good Too! -Brandon
 
 
0 #22 Zack_OKC 2009-04-15 04:54
This looks more of a heavy rain event than anything here in the southern plains. Something we need, but I would prefer supercells :P

the area where the 30% is in Texas is the best looking area as far as any significant severe weather is concerned.
 
 
-9 #23 tornadofan 2009-04-15 11:17
my area!!

REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: THE THINGS WE KNOW ARE THAT
SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL WITH A DEEPLY VEERED SHEAR PROFILE FROM NOW
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AS THE
STORM MOVES IN. THE WILD CARD WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BUOYANCY CONSIDERATIONS. CURRENT DEWPTS ARE IN THE 40S AND WE HAVE
TO LOOK WAY DOWN INTO TX TO FIND ANY 50S. THE GULF WILL BE WIDE OPEN
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AND THE MODELS ADVECT LOW TO MID 50S
DEWPTS INTO KS BY LATER TOMORROW WHICH IS NOT UNREASONABLE. IT LOOKS
LIKE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THU AND FRI BUT FOR
DIFFERENT REASONS.
 
 
-7 #24 tornadofan 2009-04-15 11:18
ON THU, A DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN CO AND MOVE INTO WEST KS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING STORM AND
SFC HEATING OVER CO WILL SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE
DRYLINE WILL FOCUS CONVECTION. BUT WE WILL BE LACKING A STRONG COLD
POOL ALOFT AND CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER KS. NEVERTHELESS
THE THREAT CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR WE CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ON THU.
 
 
-7 #25 tornadofan 2009-04-15 11:18
ON FRI, SFC WINDS BACK ACROSS ERN CO AND MOISTURE SURGES WEST AND
SOUTH EFFECTIVELY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE INTO TX. HOWEVER THE COLD
POOL ALOFT (-20 TO -30C AT H5) BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND THE MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING A LARGE DRY SLOT OVER KS WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASE SURFACE HEATING AND LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. AGAIN, THE
PRIMARY THREAT ON FRI LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND BUT SHEAR
REMAINS STRONG AND THUS TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
 

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