Lower 50 dewpoints will advect northward beneath a strong low-level jet advancing northward to a developing surface low in extreme southern Nebraska during the early morning hours tomorrow.  Clouds will linger in the morning, but a mid-level dryslot should help push them out and allow strong surface heating beneath -20 to -25 C 500 mb temperatures associated with the upper low across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas--and allow a nose/narrow corridor of steep low-level lapse rates to occur, resulting in moderate 0-3 km CAPE.  Timing of the potent, upper level trough will greatly impact the amount of severe coverage as well as the threats for severe weather.  At this time, (18z model runs) this timing appears to be off by ~ 3-6 hours and the main threats should be small hail and gusty winds, with low-topped supercells possible in a highly-sheared, low CAPE environment.  Should the timing happen better than forecasted, brief tornadoes can not be ruled out, but the threat should remain low for all types of severe weather.  Current surface obs show lower 50 dewpoints as far north as the Red River in Texas, so moisture seams feasible on the NAM as the low-level jet cranks up late tonight into tomorrow.

Further south, along the dryline/pacific front into KS/OK, storms should fire sometime between 0-5z (6-11 p.m.) and be elevated due to surface based parcels being capped along the front until past sunset.  The main threats should be damaging winds and large hail, but should any storms become surface based, with strong shear in place and somewhat-curved hodographs, an isolated tornado threat will exist.  Further east, during the same time frame into eastern OK and into AR, very strongly-curved hodographs show the potential for supercells/bowing segments, should any storm become surface-based along a pre-frontal confluence line ahead of the dryline/pacific front, but CINH is extremely high, so expecting a line of storms to produce large hail/ damaging winds well into the early morning hours of Wednesday as they race east through southern Missouri and Arkansas.

Below, is the latest video from TVN, entitled, "Never Stop Chasing in 2012!"  Enjoy and be sure to check out our LIVE streaming page and follow Reed's Facebook Fan Page and Twitter account for real-time updates as severe weather events unfold!