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Written by Dick McGowan   
Wednesday, 28 September 2011 14:54

gfs_3_2011092812_f204_wspd_500_mb gfs_3_2011092812_f204_dptc_850_mb

The long-range models have been somewhat consistent on bringing a large, west-coast trough into the Central Plains by the middle/late part of next week.  While still a long ways out, the potential will be there for a severe weather outbreak and possibly a tornado outbreak for portions of the Central/Southern Plains including Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, but it's too far out to get excited, just yet.  The severe threat could continue into the Upper Midwest by next weekend, depending on mesoscale details that won't be unkinked until late next week.  Stay tuned as this looks to be an active fall season and much needed rain, for drought-stricken areas, could return by late next week.

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Boomerk
Severe weather by the end of next week?
Sep 30 2011 04:38:02
Saw the prospects reported on local TV and checked out some model forecasts,then read it here. Hope it works out at least rainwise. Always worry about dry line ,timing,etc. Hope for the best!
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+2 #1 RadarSean 2011-09-28 09:23
It has been so long! I'm already excited. xD
 
 
+8 #2 gasorg 2011-09-28 10:16
It will only take another 30 or so tornadoes to set a new annual record. Fingers crossed that nothing strikes a populated area.
 
 
+3 #3 dtipton 2011-09-28 11:04
Can someone explain what these maps say/mean? I find this very interesting but have no idea what i am looking at.
 
 
+1 #4 sd1132 2011-09-29 03:37
@ dtipton,,To sum it up really fast they are Weather Models, This happens to be a long term map/model,,witch helps a meteroligist/forcaster/storm chaser predict where severe weather might happen,,These paticular models show the 500 mb Jet Stream and the 850 mb Dew Point
 
 
0 #5 dtipton 2011-09-29 04:32
Quoting sd1132:
@ dtipton,,To sum it up really fast they are Weather Models, This happens to be a long term map/model,,witch helps a meteroligist/forcaster/storm chaser predict where severe weather might happen,,These paticular models show the 500 mb Jet Stream and the 850 mb Dew Point

OK thanks. How do they know to look at those particular mb's? What do the little flags represent? Wind direction?
 
 
+1 #6 sd1132 2011-09-29 08:41
The "Flags" are called wind barbs, and yes they represent witch way the wind is comming from and point to the direction wind is headed as well as speed
, they also have data such as dewpoint, Current conditions and so on, witch are represented by little symbols around the wind barb, as for your question about "How do they know to look at those particular mb's?",,They look at diffrent levels of the atmosphere aka troposphere in order to find the atmospheric conditions at diffrent heights that support Severe Weather, Example,, They look for wind shear at diffrent levels of the troposphere that support the rotation of a super cell,,,or "Turning of the winds at diffrent heights in the troposphere" It is a complicated science but a very thrilling science as well!
 
 
0 #7 KCStormchaser 2011-09-29 09:52
Hope it is a active Fall Severe Weather
 
 
+2 #8 JimK 2011-09-30 09:15
We need the rain so bad, sure hope it holds together.
 
 
+1 #9 Boomerk 2011-09-30 19:46
Saw the prospects reported on local TV and checked out some model forecasts,then read it here. Hope it works out at least rainwise. Always worry about dry line ,timing,etc. Hope for the best! My last check( amateur that I am) on upper air progs looked promising - possible neg tilted trough.
 
 
0 #10 smalltexan 2011-10-05 12:47
Im ready!!!!!!!!!!! Tired of the dry summer! :lol:
 

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