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First MAJOR tornado outbreak of the season Sunday and Monday! PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Reed Timmer   
Thursday, 31 March 2011 18:38
03april2011_500mb 03april2011_ehiThe strongest trough of the spring (by far) is forecast to eject across the Southern Plains into the Mississippi River Valley Sunday into Monday, with prime conditions for tornadoes expected across these areas in the warm sector.  The shape of the trough has been trending better and better during recent runs, with the 850 mb jet much more southerly in the warm sector for both Sunday (Southern Plains) and Monday (Mississippi River Valley), yielding very strong low-level shear conducive for strong tornadoes.  Moisture quality will finally not be a problem with this system, with all models forecasting at least mid 60F dewpoint ahead of the advancing dryline and cold front.  The jet streak will impinge on the Southern Plains by late afternoon/evening on Sunday providing the upper support, with the latest 04april2011_850mb 04april2011_dewpointjpgNAM showing supercell initiation along the dryline in central OK into central KS where 0-1 km EHIs of 5+ will be found (see NAM forecast for 00z Monday above).  These supercells will have the potential for producing tornadoes well into the evening, and rotating convection will become much more widespread as the night progresses.  As the trough ejects from the Rockies, a massive uncapped, unstable, and highly sheared warm sector will mature by early Monday afternoon, setting the stage for a potentially historic tornado outbreak across AR, MO, KY, TN, MS, and northern LA.  A robust southerly low-level jet will develop with 50+ knots at 850 mb across the entire uncapped warm sector, with attendant extremely high 0-1 km helicity values of 300+ m2/s2.  Any isolated surface-based storms will quickly become tornadic in this atmosphere, and given the number of supercells expected.. I would not be surprised if 50+ tornadoes are reported across the lower Mississippi River Valley through Monday night.  This could be a particularly dangerous severe weather episode, especially on Monday to the east of the Southern Plains, so residents in this area should be sure to have their weather radios fired up.  TVN will be in the field chasing, so be sure to check our live streaming video at TornadoVideos.net/live and Rarearth.tv for additional updates and videos!
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Discuss (5 posts)

gasorg
Re:First MAJOR tornado outbreak of the season Sunday and Monday!
Apr 01 2011 16:22:47
And Xenia is right on the edge of the likely risk zone projected for Day 4.
#50790

anderbuns
Re:First MAJOR tornado outbreak of the season Sunday and Monday!
Apr 02 2011 15:17:42
I have studied the setup too and yes, similar to April 1974 as far as coverage. Here in N. Illinois the setup looks very similar to April 21, 1967 Black Friday. Of course depending in the track of the low pressure.
#50807

refessati
Re:First MAJOR tornado outbreak of the season Sunday and Monday!
Apr 03 2011 10:27:28
I'm no longer as thrilled to be living where I do.
#50817
There are too many comments to list them all here. See the forum for the full discussion.
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Comments  

 
+6 #1 smalltexan 2011-03-31 13:12
Wow! 50+ tornadoes! Hope the dominator is ready!
 
 
+4 #2 sun09 2011-03-31 14:18
WOW. That's alot of em. Get Ready Set. Here we go. Get the Dominator gased up..
 
 
+1 #3 txvegas8ball 2011-03-31 17:18
Finally, I can get out and do some chasing! I pray that there be minimal damage to life and property during this outbreak. Also, chasers be safe, especially you Reed. I'm brave, but you're off the charts! :-) Everyone please stay safe and have a great chase! Tammy
 
 
+3 #4 MDH11 2011-03-31 17:28
Looking forward to the footage from that day.
 
 
0 #5 spartanelite 2011-04-01 04:39
Day 4 is my chance at this I am in ohio and hoping for some pictures and videos!
 
 
0 #6 refessati 2011-04-02 02:22
I'll post pictures and video from Quincy, IL if we see anything interesting! I'm geared up for this! Maybe you'll head our way; hit me up if so and we'll provide lunch, haha! Everybody be careful, can't wait to see the live chase footage! I bet it'll be good!
 
 
+3 #7 marksstormpics 2011-04-02 07:37
Awesome! this will be fun, finally severe weather somewhere remotely close to me lets just hope it comes a bit more north, lets also hope that all the 50+ tornadoes will occur in open fields or low populated areas! stay safe, and good luck to all the chasers out there... :lol:
 
 
-1 #8 Mamab 2011-04-02 15:25
Ummm... that's freaking me out!!!! :eek: Well maybe it's just the wine. I guess I better clean out the garage so I can get my car in it tomorrow.
 

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