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Minnesota braces for another round of extreme weather! PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Heidi Farrar   
Friday, 16 July 2010 17:57
7.16.10.day2probotlk_1730_any 7.16.10.nam_221_2010071618_f30_ehi_3000_mOne month after the historic June 17th tornado outbreak ravaged the state, forecast models show an impressive combination of wind shear and high instability coming together over central and southern Minnesota late tomorrow afternoon, meaning the area could again endure another round of what has been an extended period of  tumultuous weather. A strong surface low is projected to develop over the west-central part of the state by mid-afternoon tomorrow, bringing south-southeasterly winds and moisture into central Minnesota by tomorrow evening. At the same time, a mid-level short-wave trough is expected to be entering the area, which, when combined with the high instability, will create a highly dynamic environment ripe for intense thunderstorm development. A few question marks remain with the forecast, one of those being how long storms will be able to remain discrete. Right now it would appear as though cells will fire over southwest Minnesota late tomorrow afternoon, then merge relatively quickly into a larger-scale complex. If this happens, the chances for tornadoes will diminish, but the threat for widespread extremely damaging winds will become a huge concern for areas of southern MN, including the Minneapolis metro area. However, if thunderstorms are able to remain discrete for any considerable amount of time, the threat for strong tornadoes will increase dramatically. Either way, residents should definitely remain alert to changing conditions tomorrow afternoon. The usual crew from Minnesota will be streaming live once again -- we're very fortunate to have such a dedicated group of chasers in the northern Plains this season! As with all of the live streamers, they play a critical role in helping the NWS and local media with the ground-truth they need to warn the public -- this in addition to allowing everyone else who can't chase see what's happening, of course!
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+3 #1 James1 2010-07-16 13:27
Gonna be some big wind producing monsters tomorrow. I'd say if the shortwave increases in strength the lift/forcing will be so strong they'll go linear poo in under an hour. But great to see more chase opportunities for those on the Northern Plains. :)
 
 
+4 #2 MN_MesoMandy 2010-07-16 13:50
It's just insane how Minnesota has had so many severe weather episodes this summer...it actually seems abnormal for some reason; there have been countless slight risks, not to mention several moderate risks, which is extremely weird. I really hope that those in the moderate risk area tomorrow will be wary and be careful. Let's hope there isn't a one month anniversary commemoration by nature tomorrow, even if it would end up being only a damaging wind event; Minnesota definitely doesn't need that right now.
 
 
+1 #3 Caleb 2010-07-16 14:28
Just looking at a sounding and Souix Falls looks like a target spot! The shear in this area is off the charts! Large tornadoes possable! I wont be surprised of the SPC issues a high risk in fact it could really very well happen.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=07&model_dd=17&model_init_hh=00&fhour=24¶meter=WSPD&level=10&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y&sounding.x=480&sounding.y=281
 
 
+1 #4 robbiesamson 2010-07-17 11:47
yeah seriously mandy MN has been nuts this season..
 
 
+4 #5 smalltexan 2010-07-18 07:48
Good luck minnesota!!!
 
 
+1 #6 hvarle 2010-07-23 01:21
If you need any chasers for the tornadoes that are occuring in Maine, I'm your girl!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcZwpa0GI9Y
 

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