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The Apocalypse. Monday, April 5 PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Reed Timmer   
Saturday, 03 April 2010 20:46
05april2010_850 05april2010_ehiA classic dryline-warm front setup appears to be unfolding for Monday across eastern Kansas, with 65F dewpoints surging up to a warm front forecast to stretch across I-70 by afternoon.  A bulging dryline into southeasterly low-level flow should be sufficient to break the cap from near Hays south to into northwest Okalhoma, with a 50 knot low-level jet developing by evening.  0-1 km EHIs of 4-5 are forecast to reside east of the dryline and along the warm front, with around 3000 J/kg CAPE.  This setup is very similar to the May 4, 2007 event, with the only potential limiting factor being initation, but I really don't think that will be an issue on Monday with 65F dewpoints and the cold air aloft of early spring.  The NAM foreacast 850 mb flow and 0-1 km EHI for 00z April 6 are shown at right.  Tomorrow (Sunday) could also be interesting across southeast Kansas/Northeast Oklahoma into Missouri, but if it doesn't materialize we'll position for Monday, which looks to be the big day.  People across western/central Kansas should definitely be attention to the forecast, and have their weather radios ready to go, because I would not be surprised if there were some stronger tornadoes if these model runs verify.  We'll be streaming non-stop throughout the storm chases this week, so be sure to check out the upgrades to the iMap tracker at TornadoVideos.net/live!
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Discuss (4 posts)

bed
The Apocalypse. Monday, April 5
Apr 04 2010 05:27:46
Its been looking awsome . Its 12:30 in the morning and im heading to oklahoma from south dakota cant wait for monday afternoon.
#36515

hmarquardt
The Apocalypse. Monday, April 5
Apr 04 2010 13:42:53
I'm just an armchair chaser, and still learning ... could someone reconcile why the SPC Conv/Tornado models have all the interesting areas significantly East of the Apocalypse zone? Mo and Wstn IL are the high prob areas on their 1-Day.
#36534

halcyonproject
Re:The Apocalypse. Monday, April 5
Apr 06 2010 04:57:16
hmarquardt wrote:
I'm just an armchair chaser, and still learning ... could someone reconcile why the SPC Conv/Tornado models have all the interesting areas significantly East of the Apocalypse zone? Mo and Wstn IL are the high prob areas on their 1-Day.

This was primarily due to the strong cap that was in place over Kansas. The environment was absolutely primed for rotating supercells but the concern was that there would simply not be enough lift with the strong cap in place and if something did manage to convect it would only be supressed by the cap as it moved ENE along the dryline. This shifted the interest area to the east and north where there was a greater probabilty of long lived supercells.
#36872
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+2 #1 Twagner 2010-04-03 16:01
Storms finally falling on my 3 days off. I will be out Sunday nite, Monday all day and Tuesday. Can't wait to see some action but hope nothing as devastating as the Greensburg event 3 years ago!
 
 
+1 #2 Jason Young 2010-04-03 16:18
I am 100% in . I will be in SW Kansas Monday !!!
 
 
+1 #3 TxTwister 2010-04-03 17:03
Sounds crazy! I hope all the tornadoes hit out in the open where there's great filming and measuring, and not on any inhabited areas! (As we all do.) Please, if it ever sets up to be nasty in Central Texas, don't use the word "apocalypse" -- I will have a heart attack! lol
 
 
+4 #4 JC Surfs 2010-04-03 17:03
Chase vehicle is all ready to rock.. Should be in position mid morning Monday.. JC thinks this one is going to good. We will be out for a few weeks.. It would be good to get a good chase on the beginning... YES!!!
 
 
+3 #5 stormspotter330 2010-04-03 21:02
Got the vehicle ready to go! im right in the zone for this one! cant wait for a good chase!
 
 
0 #6 Twagner 2010-04-04 00:31
Anybody else in here from Iowa? All the times I'm down in the KS/OK area i never see any local plates..
 
 
+3 #7 chase-fan-fl 2010-04-04 00:57
Can't Wait !
Will be watching streams...wish we had Audio to go with the Video stream.... :-)
 
 
-3 #8 dellboy84 2010-04-04 02:18
Yer the audio would be class, althou im sure we hear alot of swearing from reed lmao
 
 
+2 #9 txvegas8ball 2010-04-04 02:24
I now have a new chase vehicle that I'm ready to break in! I'll be heading to NW OK, SW KS after church. I look forward to seeing my chasing buddies, especially JC Surfs. See you soon my friend! Everyone stay safe out there and God be with you! Tammy
 
 
+1 #10 SeanRobbins 2010-04-04 03:13
Gowd I love spring..........
 
 
-4 #11 SW2602 2010-04-04 03:59
is heading for South central KS. Hutchinson to be more exact. Problem is, Were not in the chase vehicle, so that really sucks. All I have is the computer and a cell phone. Left all the equipment at home. :sad: I am hoping that there is some action on Sunday. Will be in Wichita on Monday. Hoping to hang out there long enough to catch some action. But don't want the new vehicle to get beat up, so this first big day may be a bust for me. Oh well, there will be more. SW KS is not looking very good for chasing by the way. Everything will be east of there. Possible Greensburg east. That is what I'm thinking. Being from this area, I'm not scared to make my own predictions. Good luck to all and be careful.
 
 
+4 #12 reedtimmer 2010-04-04 04:56
Keep in mind "apocalypse" at this point in the season means any opportunity to see a lightning strike.. 12z runs look equally as interesting.. Realistically, I think there will be a strong tornado somewhere in the Plains tomorrow.. and possibly Tuesday. Stay tuned. I'm fired up
 
 
-3 #13 SW2602 2010-04-04 05:06
Reed, how does it look like for today and tonight in SC KS?
 
 
0 #14 Twagner 2010-04-04 05:12
similar take as Reed, if the wind blows hard i'll be in heaven! Tomorrows models looking nice in the late afternoon/evening hours. I will be out nonstop tomorrow in the KS area and tuesday, just not sure if it will be worth the drive today.
 
 
+1 #15 TwistedOne 2010-04-04 07:02
Hutchinson looks like a good place to start for myself as well.
Twagner, I'm from Iowa, Knoxville to be exact. So if you see a black Dodge diesel 4x4 with Marion county plates, then give us a wave. We plan on being in position by 8pm this evening.
 
 
+2 #16 Twagner 2010-04-04 08:16
Sweet Twisted I'm from Indianola. I'm in a silver grand prix gtp with STMCHSR plates...sure i'll run into ya
 
 
0 #17 stormspotter330 2010-04-04 08:41
I'm going to head Southeast to the Hutchinson area from Great Bend around 7 or so.
 
 
+1 #18 SW2602 2010-04-04 09:22
Unless the dryline moves back to the west, I don't think Hutch is good spot to start. Dewpoint in Wichita is 34. Thats not good. Looks like it may fire east of there. Hopefully, it backs to the west during the overnight or the cold front moves in quicker than forecasted. I would be in a Olds Intrigue, my blazer's ac quit working so I had to some quick scrambling. I'm looking over info and I'll try to keep u informed. I'm just off 11th street in Hutch just south of the McD's. Kinda waiting to see what happens shortly.
 
 
+2 #19 Twagner 2010-04-04 10:30
Wouldn't be surprised to see that storm in Ray cty get tornado warned SOON
 
 
0 #20 Trystine27 2010-04-04 11:27
What time would be a good time to start tomorrow? Any guesses?
 
 
0 #21 smalltexan 2010-04-04 13:14
GOOD LUCK MONDAY!!!
 
 
-1 #22 TwistedOne 2010-04-04 13:36
SW2602, I just updated my maps a few minutes ago and realized where I went wrong. It's a good thing I'm gonna be up by 8am and on the road before 9 so I can reposition myself accordingly. Thanks for the heads-up. Hope I'll get to see you all out there tomorrow!
 
 
-1 #23 SW2602 2010-04-04 14:23
man did I miss on SC KS. LOL. I am usually not in this area when severe weather happens. I'm usually on the other side of the dryline. Meaning that I get to watch them build up and move away. They are still talking about some wweather on the overnight here, but the action is starting to heat up in northern OK. Maybe tomorrow will be a better day.
 
 
0 #24 EMB 2010-04-04 14:37
why is the SPC showing the threat lying northeast of reeds chosen area and as of last update dont even mention Kansas at all? HAve the models changed ????????
 
 
0 #25 SW2602 2010-04-04 14:46
the threat has moved south of KS. There are currently cells starting to form along the front that is draped through the area. If you go to the Wichita NWS website, and read the FORECAST DISCUSSION.That will explain it better than I can. But they are thinking about the overnight here in SC SE KS. They are thinking that the LLJ (Low Level Jet) will make a return flow after midnight. Its hard to tell with things like this. You just never know. I'll probably be up most of the night watching this to see as to what happens.
 

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