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| Written by Reed Timmer | |||
| Thursday, 01 October 2009 10:15 | |||
 Well the NAM that got everyone fired up a few days ago didn't quite pan out, but neiter did yesterdays! The system became a lot more progressive, which the GFS was picking up on the entire time, and the timing of this system ejecting from the Rockies did not mesh properly with the diurnal cycle for a widespread tornado outbreak. Nevertheless, the RUC model is actually showing the low-level shear hanging on near the frontal boundary much more so than the other models (see 850 mb plot at left). The front has already surged through here in Norman, and the Oklahoma mesonet shows a classic pre-frontal trough has formed, with veered southwesterly winds just ahead of the actual front, and backed winds in extreme eastern and especially southeastern Oklahoma ahead of the pre-frontal trough. The evolution of this pre-frontal trough relative to the actual front will be huge in determining the mode of severe weather today, as the best low-level shear is coincident with these backed winds. If the storms that develop along the front today can remain discrete and make it to these backed winds, then there could easily be tornadoes in the jungles of western AR. As seen in the RUC forecast for 23z this evening, the best instability is predicted to be to the south (see 0-1 km EHI RUC forecast for 23z at upper right), over northeast TX and southwest AR, with a nice 40 knot 850 mb jet in the same area, so I'd say the best chance for tornaodes will be over southwest AR to near Paris, TX. I just got an email from Brian Emfinger, and he is positioning near the OK/AR border near this pre-frontal trough, and will likely be streaming live video for much of this event. Stay tuned to the Holdercast as well since there will be more updates throughout the day as this severe weather event evolves. We're keeping a very close eye on the evolution of this pre-frontal trough and could be surging east in the Dominator at any second. Stay tuned!
          
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