A potent upper-level shortwave will surge across the Central Plains today, creating a very strongly sheared environment to its immediate east over central and eastern Iowa this afternoon and evening.  Hodographs actually look favorable for even strong tornadoes across Central Iowa after 21z as a 40-50+ knot low-level jet stream intensifies through the afternoon, but low-level moisture quality could be a limiting factor given the passage of multple intense cold fronts that have scoured out the moisture over the last few weeks.  If 65-70F dewpoints were in place over this region, I would not be surprised if today's event was given a moderate or high risk.  However, realizing these moisture concerns, the SPC has hoisted a slight risk with 5% tornado probabilities over central Iowa into southern Minnesota/southwest Wisconsin for today and overnight.  It is incredible how the jet stream pattern has remained favorable for severe weather events across the central U.S. throughout the spring and summer storm season, with substantial troughs traversing the Plains on a weekly basis, but this system looks to have very marginal moisture to work with.  The surface map below tells the story, with a small area of 60F+ dewpoints advecting northward from Kansas into Nebraska ahead of the developing surface low, but is quickly getting "pinched off" by intense mixing over Kansas.  The progressive nature of this trough will also not allow sufficient time for deep moisture to advect northward, so it looks like upper 50s to low 60s will be the reality this afternoon across the slight risk area.  Forecast soundings across the warm sector also show the relatively dry low-level conditions, as seen below from near Cedar Rapids, IA at around 00z.  Still though, a tornado or two will be possible as storms quickly develop this afternoon ahead of the upper-level speed max, and TVN live streamers will be in the field documenting this event at TornadoVideos.net/live.  Stay tuned for updates!

Incredible data from the eye wall of Hurricane Earl was archived by buoy #41046 early this morning, located just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks!  A peak wind gust of 101 mph coincident with near 50 foot waves was measured in the northwest eye wall just after 4 am EDT, with a sharp drop in wind speed to near 10 knots and a minimum pressure of a little over 940 mb as the buoy entered the eye.  The plot from this buoy is shown at left, with additional data available here:  http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

Wave heights such as these are quite typical of Atlantic Basin hurricanes, making their storm surges that much more dangerous with waves atop the general water level rise.  Thus, Hurricane Earl could have been much worse for the North Carolina Outer Banks given a more westward track.  Still though, a peak wind gust of 82 mph was reported at Oregon Inlet, NC, with around a 2-4 foot storm surge.  Relatively mild beach erosion and up to a foot of water on the highways was also reported lst night on the Outer Banks.  As anticipated for days, Hurricane Earl recurved and weakened substantially as dry air was entrained into the circulation during its approach last night, as well as increasing deep layer shear.  Currently, Earl is in the process of transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone, but still maintains category 1 hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds of 70 knots and a minimum central pressure of 961 mb.  The forward speed continues to increase (currently NNE at 18 knots) as the very large hurricane surges toward the southwest Nova Scotia coast.  Given the very large size of this tropical cyclone, with hurricane (tropical storm) force winds extending out 70 miles (205 miles) from the center, thus I wouldn't be surprised if the storm surge is quite severe especially in the inlets of Nova Scotia this weekend.  It looks like the hurricane force winds should remain offshore of Cape Cod, MA overnight, but Environment Canada has issued hurricane watches for parts of Nova Scotia.  The official statement from EC is as follows:

12:00 pm STATEMENT FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA REGARDING EARL:

Hurricane watches are posted for portions of Nova Scotia from Digby 
down to Yarmouth and up to Halifax county and areas inland for the 
possibility of hurricane-force wind gusts (120 to 130 km/h).  Gusts 
of this speed would cause tree branches and limbs to break and some 
trees to come down. That would result in downed utility lines and 
related power failures. There would also be some damage to signage
..Roofing materials and building cladding. Wave impacts at the coast 
in the hurricane watch area could lead to some beach erosion and
Damage to infrastructure..Although the tides are running lowe (neap) 
and the arrival time may be near low tide.