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Posted At: August 26, 2008 @ 11:25 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Hurricane Gustav is strengthening rapidly in the warm ocean waters south of Hispaniola today, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and a minimum surface pressure of 982 mb indicated in the 11:00 am advisory.  The only factor that could contribute to Gustav weakening is a passage over the center of Cuba, which is not being forecast by any of the models, so this storm is almost guaranteed to become a monster.


As seen below, a majority of the models take Gustav on a slow northwestward track toward southwest Cuba by Wednesday, with a turn to the west/southwest for a few days thereafter.  If this turn occurs, then Gustav will avoid the orography of Cuba, and will likely be un-phased by land.  This would be a bad scenario for the U.S. Gulf Coast, as Gustav would likely make landfall somewhere between Mobile, AL and the Mexico Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.  This could be a very dangerous and life threatening situation not only for the U.S., but also for Cuba.  Stay tuned for updates..

Posted At: August 26, 2008 @ 12:47 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical Storm Gustav is very close to becoming a hurricane, if not already.  Satellite imagery has indicated the presence of a closed low-level eyewall, and the next Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will likely find Gustav as a minimal hurricane.  The forecast track has been shifted southward slightly, now forecast to past over western Cuba late this week into the weekend.  Gustav will then enter the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico where rapid strengthening is a definite possibility.  TVN will likely intercept this storm if it makes landfall anywhere as a cat 3 or higher storm...  Stay tuned for updates...Residents along the Gulf Coast should definitely keep an eye on the forecast.

Posted At: August 24, 2008 @ 9:05 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Photogenic land spouts touched down today east of Denver, CO between 2330 and 00 UTC in Douglas, Elbert, and Arapahoe Counties, as merging outflow boundaries interacted with airmass storms/brief supercells across the CO High Plains.  The outflow boundaries were clearly evident on Denver radar, with the tornadoes touching down as the outflow boundaries collided with the storms.  Given the very weak low- and deep layer shear across Colorado, it is highly unlikely that these tornadoes were associated directly with a mesocyclone.  Here is a link to Channel 7 news in Denver for pictures:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/slideshow/weather/17120420/detail.html Here is video Dick found on Youtube:

Posted At: August 24, 2008 @ 2:18 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tornadoes are possible today in the eastern outer bands of Tropical Depression Fay, as substantial breaks in the clouds have developed over eastern MS into AL, allowing for sufficient instability to develop for convection.  Tornadoes typically occur in the right-front quadrant of land-falling tropical cyclones, especially when being "picked-up" by a mid-latitude trough (which enhances the deep-layer shear and supercell potential).  Tropical Depression Fay is in a very stagnant upper pattern, so conditions are not ideal for a widespread outbreak of tornadoes as occurred with Hurricane Ivan as it moved through the Mid-Atlantic while embedded in the westerlies.  Still though, brief tornadoes are possible given the very strong low-level shear to the east and northeast of the center of circulation.

Posted At: August 23, 2008 @ 4:06 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out "Raging Nature" tonight on Discovery Channel at 8:00 pm EDT...The Manchester, SD video will be shown, along with an interview of Chuck Doswell.   The complete schedule for this series can be found at the link below.  It's going to be an active year for television tornado specials!

http://dsc.discovery.com/tv-schedules/series.html?paid=1.14619.25808.35906.1

Posted At: August 21, 2008 @ 11:19 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical Storm Fay has basically been sitting in the same spot for over 12 hours now, but should drift slowly westward over northern Florida over the next few days, before possibly re-emerging over the northeast Gulf of Mexico Friday night.  On satellite, Fay is a very large storm but appears to be pulling in dry continental air from the north and west, as expected.  The NHC reported a minimum pressure of 994 mb and maximum sustained winds of 50 knots in their latest advisory, but this will likely be the peak intensity unless Fay takes a more southern track than forecast.  Stay tuned for updates as this HISTORIC tropical cyclone surges west!